Intelligence Matters: Insights on North Korea with Sid Seiler

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Introduction

• Host: Michael Morrell.
• Guest: Sid Seiler, a leading expert on North Korea with over 42 years in U.S. government roles.
• Topics: North Korea's treaty with Russia, provocations on the Korean Peninsula.

Sid Seiler's Background

• Worked as a collector (signals intelligence, open source, human), analyst, and negotiator.
• Served on the National Security Council staff at the White House.
• Special Envoy for Six-Party Talks under Bush and Obama administrations.
• Fluent in Korean and has served in various language-heavy positions.
• Stress on maintaining a record reflecting accurate truths of the past four decades.

Discussion on U.S. Workforce Expertise

• Necessity for building expertise in government on multiple issues (e.g., North Korea, China, Russia, Iran).
• Balancing the need for a flexible vs. specialized workforce.
• Wake-up call for improving expertise as crises emerge (e.g., Russia's invasion of Ukraine, China).

North Korea's Treaty with Russia

• Recent treaty signed between Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong-un.
• Considered broad, aspirational, and missing details but reflective of a new international order.
• Treaty obligations: mutual defense in case of invasion, aligned with UN Charter Article 51 on self-defense.
• Historical context: similar to the 1961 treaty but the current environment is different from the Cold War.

Implications of the North Korea-Russia Treaty

• Russia's actions in Ukraine and possible justifications under the treaty with North Korea.
• Skepticism about Russia's actual willingness to risk nuclear war to defend North Korea.
• The dilemma for North Korea on over-dependence on either Russia or China.
• Possible support Russia might provide to North Korea: nuclear, WMD, space programs, and conventional military capabilities.

North Korea's Contributions to Russia

• Providing artillery shells and short-range ballistic missiles for Russia's war effort in Ukraine.
• Insights into the missile's performance and potential for improvements.

Leverage and Consequences of North Korea's Support

• North Korea's critical assistance could leverage its position with Russia.
• Speculative lists of what Russia might provide North Korea in return (e.g., nuclear, missile, conventional military support).
• Concerns about emboldened North Korea acting militarily against South Korea.
• China’s likely negative view towards North Korea's actions and the impact on regional stability.

Making Foreign Policy

• The complexity and difficulty of policy-making compared to intelligence analysis.
• Real-world dynamics and practicalities impacting policy decisions.
• Also, insight into how North Korea's provocations have been historically deterred.

North Korean Provocations

• Recent ramp-up in provocations, including sending trash or human waste over the border.
• Complex motivations for these provocations, often proportionate and in-kind responses to U.S./South Korean actions.

Types of North Korean Provocations

1. Tension Escalations (e.g., accidental border clashes).
2. Deliberate, One-off Provocations (e.g., sinking of the Cheonan, shelling of Yeonpyeong-do).
3. Revisionist Actions (e.g., seizing territory).

• Historical examples and their implications for current and future policy.
• NIE scenarios predicting likely provocation patterns and proposed policy responses.

The Role of International Relationships

• Importance of the U.S.-South Korea-Japan trilateral relationship in countering North Korean and Chinese actions.
• The recent bold moves in leadership necessary for fostering collaboration.
• Institutionalized cooperation is critical despite historical grievances.

Conclusion

• Continuous deterrence and preparation if deterrence fails are key policy goals.
• Importance of keeping diplomatic channels open and maintaining international consensus.