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Intelligence Matters: Insights on North Korea with Sid Seiler
Jul 11, 2024
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Intelligence Matters: Insights on North Korea with Sid Seiler
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Introduction
Host: Michael Morrell.
Guest: Sid Seiler, a leading expert on North Korea with over 42 years in U.S. government roles.
Topics: North Korea's treaty with Russia, provocations on the Korean Peninsula.
Sid Seiler's Background
Worked as a collector (signals intelligence, open source, human), analyst, and negotiator.
Served on the National Security Council staff at the White House.
Special Envoy for Six-Party Talks under Bush and Obama administrations.
Fluent in Korean and has served in various language-heavy positions.
Stress on maintaining a record reflecting accurate truths of the past four decades.
Discussion on U.S. Workforce Expertise
Necessity for building expertise in government on multiple issues (e.g., North Korea, China, Russia, Iran).
Balancing the need for a flexible vs. specialized workforce.
Wake-up call for improving expertise as crises emerge (e.g., Russia's invasion of Ukraine, China).
North Korea's Treaty with Russia
Recent treaty signed between Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong-un.
Considered broad, aspirational, and missing details but reflective of a new international order.
Treaty obligations: mutual defense in case of invasion, aligned with UN Charter Article 51 on self-defense.
Historical context: similar to the 1961 treaty but the current environment is different from the Cold War.
Implications of the North Korea-Russia Treaty
Russia's actions in Ukraine and possible justifications under the treaty with North Korea.
Skepticism about Russia's actual willingness to risk nuclear war to defend North Korea.
The dilemma for North Korea on over-dependence on either Russia or China.
Possible support Russia might provide to North Korea: nuclear, WMD, space programs, and conventional military capabilities.
North Korea's Contributions to Russia
Providing artillery shells and short-range ballistic missiles for Russia's war effort in Ukraine.
Insights into the missile's performance and potential for improvements.
Leverage and Consequences of North Korea's Support
North Korea's critical assistance could leverage its position with Russia.
Speculative lists of what Russia might provide North Korea in return (e.g., nuclear, missile, conventional military support).
Concerns about emboldened North Korea acting militarily against South Korea.
China’s likely negative view towards North Korea's actions and the impact on regional stability.
Making Foreign Policy
The complexity and difficulty of policy-making compared to intelligence analysis.
Real-world dynamics and practicalities impacting policy decisions.
Also, insight into how North Korea's provocations have been historically deterred.
North Korean Provocations
Recent ramp-up in provocations, including sending trash or human waste over the border.
Complex motivations for these provocations, often proportionate and in-kind responses to U.S./South Korean actions.
Types of North Korean Provocations
Tension Escalations (e.g., accidental border clashes).
Deliberate, One-off Provocations (e.g., sinking of the Cheonan, shelling of Yeonpyeong-do).
Revisionist Actions (e.g., seizing territory).
Historical examples and their implications for current and future policy.
NIE scenarios predicting likely provocation patterns and proposed policy responses.
The Role of International Relationships
Importance of the U.S.-South Korea-Japan trilateral relationship in countering North Korean and Chinese actions.
The recent bold moves in leadership necessary for fostering collaboration.
Institutionalized cooperation is critical despite historical grievances.
Conclusion
Continuous deterrence and preparation if deterrence fails are key policy goals.
Importance of keeping diplomatic channels open and maintaining international consensus.
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