Shangri-La Dialogue 2023 Keynote Speech Summary

Jun 24, 2024

Shangri-La Dialogue 21st Edition - Keynote Speech

Introduction

  • Speaker: Executive Chairman of WIS
  • Event: 21st Shangri-La Dialogue
  • **Key Figures: (TBD)
    • Dr. Bastian Gigerich (Director General & Chief Executive)
    • BR Owens (Executive Director, WS Asia)
  • WIS Mission: Generate facts, analysis, and influence on war, power, and rules from an international perspective.

Importance of Rules-Based Order

  • Current State: The rules-based order taken for granted; insufficiently protected and modernized.
  • Assumptions: Powerful states would maintain status quo without breaking rules.
  • Reality: Rules marginalized, strategic habits withered; need for renewed strategic peacekeeping efforts.

Global Strategic Context

  • North Atlantic: Forgotten military muscle memory; end-user limitations on arms transfers to Ukraine.
  • Greater Middle East: Misaligned strategic actions against non-state actors threatening legitimacy.
  • Asia Complexity: Mixture of economic statecraft and military strategy creating complex geopolitics.

Regional Strategic Objectives

  • Balancing Power: Refreshing balance of power alongside rules-based order in Asia-Pacific.
  • US-China Relations: Discussions on nuclear deterrence and maritime security critical for regional peace.
  • Confidence Building: Establishing strategic trust needed beyond just agreements on paper.

Highlights of President Marcos' Address

  1. **Economic Growth & International Relations: (TBD)
  • Major Focus: Economic Security, agriculture, trade, investment.
  • Defense Partnerships: Collaborations with the US, Australia, and others.
  1. **Vision for the Philippines: (TBD)
  • Emphasis on Sovereignty: Assertion over West Philippine Sea based on international legal rights.
  • Commitment to International Law: Adherence to United Nations conventions and treaties for territorial and maritime jurisdiction.
  • Promotion of Peace: Unyielding stance toward integrity of territory and Maritime zones.
  • Historical Context: Advocacy for sovereign equality and peaceful dispute resolution since post-WWII.
  1. Challenges in Indo-Pacific
  • **Seven Realities: (TBD)
    1. Unique national aspirations challenged by undermining attempts.
    2. U.S.-China rivalry dictating regional dynamics.
    3. ASEAN's role as a stabilizing institution threatened.
    4. Importance of multilateralism to navigate geopolitical waters.
    5. Protecting Global Commons crucial for developing countries.
    6. Climate change as an unprecedented global threat.
    7. Advanced technologies presenting both solutions and disruptions.

Actions and Principles for Future Security** (TBD)

  • ASEAN Centrality: Essential for regional peace and stability; active support necessary.
  • Multilateralism: Crucial for addressing transcendent global issues like climate change and disarmament.
  • Role of Middle Powers: Bridging political divides and leading on global issues is required.

Security Strategies for the Philippines:

  • Comprehensive defense build-up
  • Diplomacy emphasizing multilateral approaches
  • Strategic partnerships for regional stability
  • Proactive stance on climate action and nuclear disarmament

Conclusion

  • Reaffirmation: Sovereignty, rule of law, and multilateral cooperation as guiding principles.
  • Call to Action: Collective commitment to safeguard peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific region.

Q&A Highlights

  1. Maintaining ASEAN Centrality: Focus on returning to ASEAN principles and multilateral partnerships.
  2. Potential Conflict with China: Red line defined by willful harm to Filipino citizens; potential invocation of U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty.