Recent Advances and Future Challenges in Understanding Asia's Water Tower
Introduction
Broad overview of glacier research in the context of hydrology.
Focus on recent natural disasters in Utraan to illustrate the impact of climate change.
Context of Climate Change
Awareness of climate change has evolved rapidly over the last 20 years.
Historical references:
1912: Recognized CO2 emissions from burning fossil fuels could affect global temperatures.
1960s advertisement from oil companies claimed production could melt glaciers.
Climate change is a significant political and scientific issue today.
Importance of Glaciers in High Mountain Asia
The region consists of diverse mountain ranges:
Himalayas, Tibetan Plateau, Kunun Shan, Karakoram, Pamir, and Hindu Kush.
Glaciers and permafrost impact hydrological cycles.
Cryosphere feeds major river systems:
Indus, Ganges, Brahmaputra, and others.
Roughly 25% of the global population relies on these river basins.
Geopolitical complexities due to transboundary rivers leading to conflicts over water use.
Water Tower Index Study
Research funded by National Geographic to assess mountain regions.
Developed a Water Tower Index to rank importance based on supply and demand for water resources.
Key Findings:
Tibetan Plateau: High supply but low demand.
Indus Basin: High supply and high demand, making it a critical water tower.
Most important water towers are in High Mountain Asia, especially Indus, Amaria, and Tarim.
Glacier Research and Observations
Rapid changes observed in glaciers over time using historical comparisons.
Example:
George Mallory's 1921 photograph of Rongbuk Glacier shows significant retreat by 2007.
Research in Langtang area (Lun Glacier) also shows drastic changes over decades.
Glacier Statistics:
Approximately 95,000 glaciers in Asia covering 100,000 km² with a volume of 7,000 km³ (4% of global ice volume).
Glacier Research Evolution
Glacier research gained momentum after the 2007 IPCC report errors about Himalayan glaciers.
Errors led to increased funding and focus on peer-reviewed studies.
Mass Balance Studies
Glacier mass balance determined by accumulation vs. ablation.
Recent studies highlight:
Significant mass loss in southern Himalayan arc.
Stability or slight gains in the Karakoram and Western Kunun Shan.
Notable variations across different studies, with an average mass loss of 0.2 meters/year in High Mountain Asia.
Anomalous Glacier Behavior
Investigated the Karakoram anomaly where some glaciers appear to gain mass.
Factors influencing anomalous behavior:
Changes in atmospheric processes, irrigation effects, and specific glacier properties.
Increased irrigation observed, particularly in the Tarim Basin, affecting regional climate and snowfall.
Importance of Small-Scale Research
Utilization of drones to study debris-covered glaciers.
Findings indicate debris-covered glaciers may melt faster than clean ice glaciers due to complex surface conditions.
The role of ice cliffs and lakes examined in detail.
Future Projections
Studies predict significant glacier mass loss by the end of the century, even under climate stabilization efforts.
Elevation-dependent warming observed in High Mountain Asia is more pronounced than global averages.
Projections:
36% mass loss under 1.5°C increase; 50% under higher RCP scenarios.
Hydrology and Glacial Contributions
Importance of evaluating glacier contribution to river flows.
Variability in glacier contributions across regions; Western rivers show higher reliance on meltwater.
Studies suggest overall water availability may not drastically change, but shifts in seasonal patterns are expected.
Key Challenges Ahead
Understanding and predicting hydrological extremes and natural hazards.
Increasing water demand driven by population and economic growth may be a more immediate challenge than climate change effects.
Need for integrated models combining physical hydrology with socio-economic factors.
Utraan Disaster Case Study
Date of Event: February 7, 2021.
Major debris flow caused by catastrophic slope failure, impacting hydro power infrastructure.
Remote sensing used to analyze the event and assess damage.
Questions raised about attribution to climate change versus natural occurrences.
Conclusion
Acknowledge the complexities of hydrological systems and the critical need for comprehensive research on multiple factors influencing water availability and glacier dynamics.