Lecture Notes: Hungary and Viktor Orbán

Introduction

• Viktor Orbán, Prime Minister of Hungary, often seen negatively in Western media.
  • Described as Europe's new dictator.
  • Accused of racism with controversial policies on migrants, LGBT issues, and support for Putin.
• Despite Western criticism, Orbán has significant support in Hungary.
  • Secured fourth consecutive landslide election victory in 2022.
  • His party's support is strong nationwide, apart from some resistance in Budapest.

The Political Landscape

• Orbán has been in power longer than any other EU leader due to his electoral success.
  • Elections monitored and considered reasonably free.
  • However, elections are not entirely fair due to the state's power used to Orbán's advantage.

Factors Influencing Orbán's Success

1. Appeal to National Identity

• Hungary's unique history and language differentiate it from other European countries.
  • Magyar origins, distinct from Indo-European languages.
  • Christian heritage and historical conflicts with the Ottoman Empire.
  • Hungarian national identity is emphasized in Orbán's rhetoric and policies.
    • Citizenship granted to Hungarians outside the country.
    • Policies aimed at increasing the Hungarian population, such as lifetime tax exemptions for mothers of four or more children.

2. Political Skill

• Orbán’s political journey:
  • Gained attention in 1989 with a speech against communist dictatorship.
  • Transitioned his party from liberal to right-wing, filling a gap in the political spectrum.
  • Political maneuvering led to becoming Prime Minister in 1998.
  • Shifted to populism after losing the 2002 election.

3. Use of State Power

• Orbán used his 2010 supermajority to modify the constitution.
  • Changes favored his party through gerrymandering and new electoral systems.
  • Influenced judiciary and media control.
  • "Dance of the Peacock" strategy - make bold moves, then retract noticeable parts while maintaining core changes.

4. Control of Media

• Media heavily influenced by state advertising and grants.
  • Controlled about 80% of media platforms.
  • Limited competition by controlling state-funded broadcasters and withholding licenses.

5. Identification of Enemies

• Built support by identifying and opposing enemies:
  • 2015 refugee crisis labeled as a Trojan horse for terrorism.
  • Criticized EU bureaucrats and George Soros, leading to controversies over anti-Semitic implications.
  • Enacted laws against LGBT rights.

Conclusion

• Orbán's electoral success due to a mix of autocratic methods and a resonant political agenda.
• Concerns exist about Hungary's trend towards "soft autocracy" or "soft fascism".
• Future of Hungary under Orbán uncertain if popular support wanes.
• The global influence of Orbán's model observed in other countries like Turkey and India.