⚽

Analyzing Football Through Advanced Metrics

Jul 2, 2024

Analyzing Football Through Advanced Metrics

Introduction

  • Discussion about the misleading nature of traditional football statistics.
  • Example: Brazil 1 - Germany 7 (2014 World Cup semi-final) shows how stats can be misleading.
  • Emphasis on the need for updated metrics due to recent advances in data collection.
  • Aim: Explore advanced metrics for a deeper understanding of football.

Importance of Possession

  • Traditional metric: Possession
    • Controversial: Some see it as crucial, others as insignificant.
    • Example: Pep Guardiola's high possession vs. Leicester's low possession 2016 title.
    • Limitation: Doesn’t show how a team utilized possession.

Advanced Metric: Field Tilt

  • Measures territorial dominance by considering touches and passes in the opposition’s final third.
  • Example: Arsenal averages 58% possession but 65.2% field tilt.
  • Field tilt helps us understand a team’s control in dangerous areas.

Analyzing Shots

  • Limitation: Total shots don't indicate shot quality.
  • Advanced Metric: Expected Goals (XG)
    • Measures shot quality over quantity.
  • Additional Metrics:
    • Goal Conversion Percentage: Goals/Total Shots.
      • Example: Lazio ranks low in shots but high in goal conversion.
    • Post Shot XG (XG on Target): Considers shot location and outcome.
      • Highlight: Lionel Messi and Harry Kane excel in Shooting Goals Added (SGA).

Passing and Dribbling

  • Limitation: Total passes/dribbles lack context.
  • Advanced Metric: Expected Threat (XT)
    • Measures ball movement’s impact on scoring likelihood.
    • Top Performers: Lionel Messi and Kevin De Bruyne.
  • Advanced Metric: Expected Offensive Value Added (XOVA)
    • Measures the increase in scoring chances from received passes.

Pressing Metrics

  • Traditional Metric: Passes Per Defensive Action (PPDA) measures pressing intent.
  • Advanced Metric: Build-up Disruption Percentage (BDP)
    • Measures the reduction in the opposition’s pass completion due to pressing.
    • Example: Liverpool under Klopp reduces average completion by 7.7%
  • Metric: Quantifies Counter-Pressing Intensity (GPI)
    • Measures defensive actions in the top 40% of the pitch within 6 seconds of losing possession.
    • Example: Dominance by Liverpool, Frankfurt, Barcelona, and Napoli.

Conclusion

  • Advanced metrics offer a deeper understanding of football.
  • Importance of using multiple complementary metrics for a holistic view.
  • Encouragement to watch games alongside analyzing metrics for best insight.
  • Open floor for comments on fundamental and irrelevant metrics.
  • Invitation to subscribe for more stats-based content.

Full transcript