Hi, everyone. Welcome to today's video. So I'm getting a lot of questions from my investor community that, hey, should we be investing in the US markets right now or should we pick the Indian markets? Where are the opportunities? Can you help us understand this logic more? So I researched. I went into a deep dive and I researched a lot of data, a lot of points, and there are five summarize points that I would like to tell you. Number one, that right now it makes sense to book some profits in the short term in both the markets. Why? I'll explain. Number two, I don't see any massive bulk buying opportunities in the markets right now. Number three, there are some asymmetric bets. So if your portfolio is not skewed towards these, you could consider it. For example, something like UiPath is bouncing back in the US. It might make sense. Similarly, in India, IT stocks are bouncing back. You have consumer durables which has already bounced back, and some of these stocks are picking up. Might make sense. Number fourth, you should continue to do SIP in some bit. Number five, definitely diversify between the Indian stock markets and the US stock markets. Why? Because the nature of both these markets is going to shift a little bit from this point. Now, why am I saying it? So let me deep dive into different macros and 5, 6 points, and just say you can get more clarity, and then I'll come back again to this summary. So point number one is that see, in India, election is already over. So that election rally or pre-election rally, post-election rally has been absorbed to a very large extent. This is the first key change that has happened in the Indian market. Now in the US, this has not happened yet. So which means that there might be a pre-election/post-election rally in the US. So this is point number one,. Additionally, a related point here is that because in India, we have somewhat of a lesser majority with the government, it's a mixed government, one could argue. There will be a lot more data that will come out. Therefore, we will expect to see a lot more volatility in the Indian market. This is very, very important point. Now, you will say,. So guys, I'm running my hedge fund. I get to speak with a lot of investors, HNI, They exhibit these type of high impact points. So I try to bring this to you. And one of the key things that they are focusing on is managing their volatility. Volatility is what makes them a little bit nervous. They always look for slightly safe investment options. So on that note, I will just quickly help you understand this point a little bit more by taking you to the chart of Nifty50. So take a look at this. And this is a point that I covered on my last video also. What it simply means is that if you start looking at the market from 12th October '21, this is Indian market, and if we analyze the market till April '23. So this was a two-year period, where the interest rates were very much higher. So the interest rates were jacked up and the market fell how many times? One, two, three, four, five. And there were five instances when the market fell approximately by 10 % or 10 % or more. And these are called as volatility points or volatile points. And this is what scares a lot of investors. So if you are a retail investor and you are getting scared by this 10, 10 % fall, you are likely to be exhibited. According to my understanding, this is likely to be exhibited in the Indian market somewhere compared to the US market right now, if you are keeping a short term view. So which That brings us to the first key takeaway that, Hey, if in the short term, you are a little bit scared of this volatility, or you require that money in a 2-3 year period, so your investing horizon is not there. Then see, right now, very good opportunity to book 20% profits in the Indian market and also in the US market. Now, US, it depends on whether you have more investment in S&P 500, which is the broad market index for the US, or you have more investment in Nasdaq. The primary difference between S&P 500 and Nasdaq in the US is that Nasdaq is predominantly tech-focused. Almost 25 to 27% weight on Nasdaq is of top five tech companies. With S&P, that is not the case. It's slightly more broad in nature. So S&P For example, in the last one year, you will see that S&P has given 26% run-up. What about Nifty? How much return has Nifty given? In one year, it has given, again, almost the same run-up. But on a five-year basis, if you see, Nifty has given That's the possibility which might happen. This is one. The second key point is that the interest rate cuts will happen in the US. This is very, very likely that this might happen in the US, and this will impact the US market directly, and then it will impact the Indian market indirectly. Now, what is the meaning of that?. But I'll still try to teach you. See, when the interest rates are cut, the tech companies, they benefit a lot. Now, why am I saying it? Because these companies are already cash-rich companies. For example, if you look at Amazon's balance sheet, Meta's balance sheet, etc. Then what ends up happening with these tech companies is that in a low interest rate environment, they give massive rally. And this is precisely what happened even in post-2020, when interest rates. I'm not hand-picking. You take a look at Apple. So this was like 2020. Here, you see Apple's rally. From '96, it has gone up to '207. So very fast rally because one could argue that between that '2020 period and '2021 period, the interest rates were cut. And it's a US stocks for both. I'm not saying Indian stocks do not I'm going to cover all those points. So in case you guys are interested, I'm putting the links in the description and comment box and you can sign up for the course. Anyways, coming back to the point, the first key takeaway is that in the US, the chances of run-up is slightly higher. Point number 2 is that if you look at the markets technically, for example, again, I'm going to start. For example, if you look This is the markets here, this is the Indian market. Now, India, election rally is done. We are hitting this resistance point.. This channel is followed. So it makes more sense to do this channel trading. Channel trading in the Indian market. Kav, exactly, kaisai, kaisai, and all that point. I, anyways, cover on my member community. But this is an important piece of information I want to give out. Point number 3 is that the volatility in the Indian market is likely to be higher. Why is that? Because see, when mixed government is there, now mixed government means support, and all that stuff, the media actually becomes slightly more fairer, I would say. I'm not saying it will become fair, but you know, the points we cover it in the news format. So we are likely to see a lot more volatility in the Indian market as of now. So my assumption here, or like my prognosis would be that we are likely to follow this channel. This is going to be the case. So in this case, after you should figure out your trading/investment strategy, it might make more sense. In the US, the picture is such that because elections are supposed to happen, there is a little bit of lag left. I don't think that there will be massive volatility on election. There might be a a little bit, but not to the extent that the Indian market would exhibit volatility. This is the third key point that I want to make. Now, fourth key point, should you be bulk buying anything in the US market versus Indian market? See, that's a hard thing to understand because if you get an opportunity like this,. If you are in that volatile phase, there is a very high certainty that that will happen in Indian markets. Then it makes sense to bulk buy. I'm mostly going to buy here. I'm not going to continue to do SIP and all that stuff. I don't believe too much in that theory. But if you're not a slightly more advanced, sophisticated investor, then doing SIP or continuing to do SIP makes sense, or you will find it hard. Definitely do continue to do SIPs. I hope that I'm not confusing you. I hope that this point is clear. This is slightly advanced. This allows you to make that 2, 3% alpha over the market, and that actually leads to much faster wealth growth. So this is why I'm going to discuss advanced strategies I'm discussing with you. Now, in the US, what's the scene? Now, if you actually go and try to pick the most popular US stocks, for example,. Since then, it has given like crazy run up. So more than 100% run up it has given.. I'm not booked profits. And here, for example, if you take a look at Apple, the stock has doubled. So the stock has given very strong rally. Apple all time high, Amazon all time high. Everywhere, it's all time high, so to say. So I don't think that, again, here is an opportunity to bulk invest. It makes literally zero sense to bulk invest. However, you can continue to do SIPs on this. Now, why am I proposing SIP on this? Because in the US, interest rates are going to get cut. And again, companies So advanced point, basically in Apple, Amazon, all these companies, these are cash-rich companies. They are sitting on billions of dollars of cash. What they do is their credit rating is very strong. So they are very safe companies to lend money to. In a low interest rate environment, they can avail cheaper loans. What do these companies do? They go and borrow money like crazy. And then they will throw that money on R&D, faster growth, hiring more people, all that stuff. So this stuff happens. Now, interest rates are likely to be cut in the US. So as a result, here, it makes sense that you at least just keep doing this. Bulk buying opportunity is not clear. There is no point in running after it. But yes, if you get these stocks at 5, 7, 10% discount, it might make sense. Now, you'll say, Bulk buy, where can we buy? Very difficult to say, and unless you are a slightly more sophisticated investor, this following point is not applicable to you. Now consider, for example, UiPath. According to me, it is a good stock. Now, why am I saying that it is a good stock? For example, if you take a look at the company's revenues, profit, it's a sensible company. It is a market leader in the specific domain that it operates. If you guys want, I'll write a detailed note tomorrow on my member community regarding UiPath. I'll give you more commentary on it. It will benefit from low interest rates. Yesterday, I was doing a session with my member community students, and this was a chat, so I ended up speaking with a lot of people who work in tech. They were able to present a lot of viewpoints. Their viewpoint was, let's see, when it comes to M7 stocks, these are magnificent seven tech companies in the US. What they are focused on is that they are focused on creating ecosystems. And just smaller companies, all these are very, very specific niche tech companies. For example, just a Coinbase is nothing but an underplay of the crypto market. Now, if the crypto market adoption is going up, then And Coinbase as a stock is going to go up. Now, that is very basic, commonsensical. Now, similarly, UiPath, what does it do? It does a technology called as Robotic Process Automation. Now, these companies, they have a higher chance of pivoting. They are startup type of companies. They can pivot faster. They can offer or change this particular technology and pivot to something else. Their growth depends literally on survivability.. Now, if you are betting on the technology called RPA, you can buy it. Now, if you are betting on a technology called as Crypto or Web 3. 0, then buy something like Coinbase. It makes sense. If these companies survive for 10 years, then it is almost given that you are going to 5x6x your money. There is a very high probability of that happening. So these are called as asymmetric bets. These type of bets are more there in the US compared to in India. So if you want to aggregate these type of asymmetric bets, so by default, you will have to go to the US. There is no other option. Now, in India, what is going to happen? Because now, some of you might be thinking,. Then companies like TCS, Wipro, these will also benefit because they make a lot of money from US/European clients. In fact, most of the money that these companies make, they make from US and In fact, this is a swing. This is a swing that I completed. So I bought it index here and then I sold it somewhere here. And then I have a fully technical analysis on member community also. So I personally have exited, for example, I bought a lot of 1CR, and then it moved to 1. 35 CR. I got 50% of my position, so something like this. And the rest, 50%,. Then it has started to come back up, so I have not done much. Now, most likely to time this and add more positions on my IT stocks. I might buy some very specific stocks. For example, I'm leaning towards I am also looking at Tata Tech. I am also looking at specific sectors, for example, or specific There are specific themes like data centers in India, companies that address that theme. I'm studying the stocks. I will let you guys know. So data centers seem like a very prominent theme in India because it's a lot of data localization. So this is one key thing that I'm trying to add to my tech portfolio in India. I don't see too many opportunities, but if you guys are seeing anything, do let me know. I'll go through the comments. I'll try to investigate more. But this is my overarching thesis as of now. So just to cut the long story short, here are five, six key takeaways. So number one, the interest rate cuts are likely to benefit the US market more compared to the Indian market in the short term. Number two, it makes sense to book some profits, at least on Nifty50 or indices in India... This is something that I was analyzing. So this was the one phase of small cap. So this was the trend line. This was trend line one. This was trading channel two, so to say, where it is currently going. So this whole arch is changed. For. It is likely to get followed here. So it's going to be up in this time. And accordingly, you can make a play, whether you want to exit some small cap. Right now, does it make sense to book some profits on small cap? Yes. On a short term basis, it makes sense. So that is point number 2. Point number 3, if you do SIP, then it makes sense to continue to do SIP. I would prefer Nasdaq over S&P 500. Number 4, you can add some asymmetric bets in the US market, for example, UiPath, Coinbase, depending if you believe in these themes. Number 5, in the Indian tech, I still don't see massive opportunities, to be honest. Still, according to me, something like TCS is going to benefit more from interest rate cut. They are also pivoting their models, whatnot. So if we find it at a good level, we will definitely buy it. Final question that I keep on getting, market is very high. Should we exit? Should we reenter later? See, pruning or readjusting your portfolio makes sense. But a net net, in my case, for example, let's say in my For example, 70 % of my net worth, entire net worth, is in these stock markets. Now, now the market is very high. So I will withdraw almost 60, 70 % of that money right now. No, that does not make any sense because if I'm withdrawing, withdrawing 60, 70 % of their money, where will I reinvest? Real estate market, it is an all-time high. Gold at an all-time high. Bitcoin at an all-time high. So you invest, you have to reinvest. By default, in the stock market, and therefore you have to take this risk.. Just to prevent yourself from that 10, 10% fall that will happen at some stage. But beyond that, there is no point in cutting positions right now. At least wait for the interest rate cuts That's what I would say. I hope that you enjoyed this conversation, this video. And if you did, do subscribe, like this video, and I will see you soon.