Okay guys, so in this video we're going to be going over everything that kind of happened last week and showcasing all the statistics that I use in trading. And so what I want this video to really help people see is one, the simplest way that you can execute on one single time frame, not having to worry about hundreds of different confluences, having to stress about the perfect entry, all that stuff is just kind of having peace on the charts using statistics and probabilities, because to me, data is the most black and white way that we can kind of communicate on the charts. Because if you ask somebody, well, what trend is this?
Well, 10 different people are going to give you 10 different answers based on their own subjective way of what a trend even looks like, right? A trend on a one minute may look different than what it looks like on a 15 minute and somebody on a 15 minute. may think it's different than somebody on an hour, right? Like it's all subjective on what people look at in terms of how they view a trend, what they view as a good fair value gap versus a bad one, a good order block versus a bad one, a good support versus a bad support. Like it's all still a little subjective.
And so when I use statistics and data, it's very black and white. It eliminates the subjectivity of, oh, you took this trade wrong because of this. X, Y, Z. You kind of can't really do that with statistics because every single day we know waking up, right?
If you take right here, starting on the hourly, and the reason I go to the hourly is to pull more data for the midnight snap. As you can see, nothing is subjective about starting from eight, I'll double click in here, starting from eight to 1115, we have a 65 to 68% probability of retracing to midnight. And specifically here, in the past 954 days from Monday last week, we had a 68.7% probability, right?
Meaning we have, out of 954 days, we have retraced 68.7% of the time back to midnight open, New York midnight open. And so that's something that just can't be disputed, right? Anybody can go to their charts. And if you wanted to buy hand and you didn't want to trust this indicator, which you can...
You can, you can literally go on a Google sheet and just match this and do it by hand. You can see you're going to get the rough, rough statistic. That's why I tell people 65 to 68. Some people have used other types of, you know, data collecting softwares, and it's all around the same deviation of 65 to 68%. And the thing is, is that it's just irrefutable data, right?
It doesn't matter how you get the data. It's still going to come around to the same statistic. And so if I understand that.
This black and white statistic of however I'm viewing the market has survived multiple market conditions. It's survived elections. It's survived bull markets, bear markets, NFP weeks, CPI, PPI, all these different FOMC meetings, high impact news events, Jerome Powell opening his mouth, anything, new oil inventories, inflation reports, all of this stuff. If these statistics are giving us.
a 65 to 68%, or if we're about to go over the opening hours as well, if the opening hours, like let's say the five o'clock opening price is giving us an 86% probability out of the past 900 plus days or whatever the case may be, all of these statistics that we used has derived from various market conditions. And if these statistics are giving us 60, 70, 80 plus percent probabilities, and not probabilities as in we're trying to predict the future, probabilities as in it has happened out of X many times, 80%, 75%, 68%. You can't refute that, right?
It is black and white in front of your face. And so this is why I tell people, you don't need to know what the market conditions are. You don't need to know the fundamental analysis. You don't need to know this stuff. If the data that has...
came from the past of all of these random things that we consider quote unquote random, if it has came from all that, what more do I need to derive my theory of the day, my statistical direction of the day, my trade for that day? What else do I need? And I say that as a joke online, but I genuinely mean it.
What more do I need if I know starting at eight o'clock when I can trade when that's my personal trading session, but you can do this and build data around anything. Starting at 8 o'clock, if price is above midnight, what more do I need to tell myself I only have permission to go short? New Buckle Austin, what if it's a trend day? I don't know that and neither do you.
I don't care what people say on social media. If you could detect when a day is going to be a crazy face ripper day and we're just going to go to the moon and create zero pullbacks, you would not be on social media. You would not be out here saying, look at this, I told you so. It was a trend day because guess what? For every I told you so, what you're not being loud about is all the times that you got your stop losses ran and your face ripped off because we're ranging more than we trend and all those I told you so's.
ended up being stop loss hits four out of five times of the week because we range more than we trend, meaning we come back and collect all of these probabilities throughout the day at least one to two times, right? And again, I tell people, if you want to disagree with the fact that we range more than we trend, just plop on this midnight snap and put in opening hour one, opening hour two, opening hour three, all of these opening prices, and we come back and collect them all. in the AM. And then you put in these again for the PM and we come back and sometimes even collect those. And we come back and collect the opening prices of the eight through noon prices because we range more than we trend.
If those statistics were low, if those statistics were 20, 30, 40%, then that means we would be trending more than we range because these are the opening prices right here. And if these statistics were low, that does in fact mean we do this more than we do this. Right. More than we come down and collect these opening prices. But that's what the black and white data says.
That's why you don't have to disagree with me and we don't have to argue because the numbers do the arguing for us. Right. The numbers tell us everything we need. And so, again, I need to give you guys this context because a lot of people, they'll they'll get so caught up in their own ego that they they they just they see black and white evidence and they just still want to be in disbelief. And I get it.
It's kind of weird and different to what a lot of people are exposed to and trading, but it's just, it's irrefutable facts. And so that's why you'll see me only stay on the one minute, executing everything on the one minute, because it's not that I want to be willfully ignorant to the rest of the stuff, or it's not because I'm lazy. It's because I genuinely am asking you, what more do I need than statistically backed lines?
And if I'm above statistically backed lines. I'm short. If I'm below all of these statistically backed lines, I'm going long, or at least I'm looking for longs.
I'm not just blindly clicking the buy and sell button. And so now starting on Monday, you can see at starting at eight o'clock, okay, if I pull up my footprint right here and all the liquidity footprint is, again, guys, I just call it this. I did not create this term in copywriter.
I don't care. I call it a footprint because people leave a footprint in time that they were able to make this giant wick on the one hour. And whoever has money, I don't care how it's formed. I don't care anything. Whoever has the money and the ability to push price down in an hour's time to make this giant wick here, I don't care how it was done.
I just care that I can see it every single day. They're leaving a footprint behind to tell me that maybe this is where the catalyst towards midnight, which is 65% to 68% of the time, is going to provide. the sell pressure to then start getting here.
I could be wrong. This could break through this, and then we have to use this footprint. But this gives me, again, objective areas.
Everyone has the same WIX. I don't have to say, yeah, you used the wrong XYZ PD array here. Doesn't matter. Everyone has these same WIX because I want to keep it stupid simple.
And this is going to give me objective context to see where price is most likely going to start rejecting and then fulfill this midnight statistic. Now I have my own proprietary way of entering, which is these words. red and green wolves.
No, they are not buying sell signals. This is the last thing I need to tell me that there's objective distribution towards whatever direction I'm taking. So in this case here, I'm just looking for bearish distribution to the downside. We have midnight below us.
So I'm not taking any of those longs or those bullish distributions you see on the chart. And now right here, right here, without you guys even understanding any aspect. Okay.
I want the people in the audience here. We've got 48 people in the audience. So I want you guys to answer this. Now that we have taken every statistic to the upside, I don't care what this trend looks like. You guys may already know what price did, right?
Let's just act like you don't even know what price is. Is data above or below price? Just say above or below in the chat. perpetual says lrnr1010minishort see all right and then right here i know i know perpetual is making a joke right but it's completely true He's making a joke about putting on more risk because now every data point is to the downside, but it's completely true, right? We know when to tailor our risk without going to any other timeframe, using any other PD array, using anything else.
We now know when to tailor risk, when to push down the gas pedal a little bit more. not being a degenerate and just throwing, you know, whatever on. And what I mean by increasing risk is if I'm doing two micros to start my DCA process and by DCA process, I mean, if we do take on drawdown and I, I just start with two micros because I can give myself a budget per day of risk to use instead of trying to find that perfect entry. Then what I'm going to do is if we do take on drawdown, right? And then I'm like, okay, sweet.
We get another bearish distribution right here. Boom, two more micros. But if everything is taken out to the upside, if all the data is taken out to the upside, then I know, okay, well now I can put on maybe one more micro to start because if I'm a dollar cost average type of trader and I'm expecting drawdown to then add to my position to get a better entry, but in this trade right here, there is no data telling me that we're going to go higher. Then I'm going to average in here heavier, right? So I'm going to do three micros whenever I get my bearish distribution instead of just two.
And so now I think we get a bearish distribution. Let's see, we pump a little bit more. So now we've taken everything to the upside. Now I'm just sitting on my hands. I think I remember, yeah, we were streaming in the discord this day too.
We're just sitting on my hands. And then right here at 1018, we finally get bearish distribution to the downside. And then right here, this was three micros short for 0.13%.
Again, why do I do 0.13%? Because that is my statistical profit target. And so if I go to my X page real quick, and I tell people this all the time, you do not have to trade exactly like I do.
And I'm not giving you personal trading advice, financial advice, anything like that. But in my honest opinion, with my experience and how I trade, if you're looking at my chart, then on the recording, I just now put it on my chart here too. This is the equation that I just came up with on what, in my opinion, makes a successful model that can scale.
Okay. And that's profit P equals statistical direction. Okay. So a direction that you have derived from statistics, not what you felt.
Not what you've seen in last week. Not what Kojak online told you that he said, trust me, bro, this happens 60, 70% of the time. No, you have seen it for yourself, black and white data, that this happens X amount of times out of this much data that you have deemed to be good for you.
In my opinion, I'd like to have a good chunk of time, at least two to three years of... consistency of a certain direction. And then you take that in sample data and compare it to out of sample.
So if you took three years of data to give you a statistical probability of X, Y, Z, then you take that and you go to another chunk of time of three years and that's your quote unquote out of sample data. And you want to cross compare the two, right? And it's like, okay, sweet.
The out of sample data gave me a 67% and the in sample data gave me a 66%. Okay. It's roughly in the same, you know, ballpark of consistency.
That is true edge. When you can take your edge, your model, compare that to something of what happened in a random time and you're still getting the same level of consistency, not performance, consistency of that direction, of that entry, whatever you're basing that off of. And that is a statistical direction. Then you combine your statistical direction with how you manage risk. Okay, so in this case here, I'm dollar cost averaging with a daily risk budget.
Just like how you give yourself seven, eight, a thousand bucks a day to lose, trying to find that perfect entry. And then you get death by a thousand paper cuts. You get stopped out four, five, six, seven times.
You're like, okay, I'm either done or I'm just going to be a DJ and blow the account. But either or, you give yourself a max loss based on that dollar. I'm doing the same thing, but instead of trying to find the perfect entry, I'm scaling into my positions using objective distributions based on my way of entering. Okay, and so then I combine that with my direction.
And then once both of those are combined, I'm not shooting for the entirety of the move. I'm not shooting for midnight. So I'm not shooting for the majority of midnight. I'm not shooting for this entire move.
I'm shooting for a statistical profit target of 0.12 to 0.13% because that is what I have calculated based on researching this and studying this and building hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of back tests. I know that I can get roughly, if you really want, it's like around 0.3, 0.32%, right? Depending on obviously the distance away from midnight. But this is like, you can get a pretty good amount from... from treading towards midnight.
But I know if I want the highest probability and shoot for cash flow, not these giant moves, not home runs, just nice, consistent base hits that add up every single day, I'm going to shoot for 0.13%. That's my statistical profit target. Okay. So now, now that I gave you guys the context of everything, I'm going to go a little bit faster, but I just wanted to let you know, you know, my thought process behind everything before doing it.
And so you see right here. Now, I want you guys to take note of this. I'm not bragging.
This isn't saying, look how great my trading style is. Look how great my indicator is. This is no, I'm not doing that. But I want you to take a look at this trade here. And I did this live in front of many people in my Discord Monday last week.
We took on like one point of drawdown, right? If you were to put a risk to reward tool on this specific trade right here, I took two points of drawdown. two points of drawdown for 25 points or 0.13%. And if you were to put a risk to reward tool on this, you would literally think that I'm lying.
You would be like, dude, there's no way. Because other times I will do a trade that you would have thought I shorted the absolute bottom. I go into a short and immediately take on drawdown.
Boo hoo. I'm doing two micros. And then we take on some drawdown and then, oh, sweet, I get another bearish distribution right here.
Well, guess what? Here's my first position. Here's my second position because I'm averaging into my position. This midline right here represents what my average cost would be. And so now my average cost instead of down here would be here.
And now my statistical profit target is being moved with my average cost. This is another thing people get wrong about dollar cost averaging is they want a dollar cost average into a position. but maintain original profit targets. Because again, guys, you hear people say this all the time. There's so many negative things people want to say when it comes to dollar cost averaging, but they've done it in the wrong way.
You can't tell me vehicles are bad after you've wrecked seven vehicles when you've not even understood how to drive the car. You can't just come here and say, hey, that car is bad. You shouldn't drive cars because I've wrecked seven.
Well, do you have your license? Well, no. but cars are bad. It doesn't make sense.
You didn't know how to use the tool. And so now you're blaming the tool instead of yourself because you failed to educate yourself around the tool before using it. So you can't just come with a predisposed bias and say, this way of managing risk is bad because you have had a bad experience with it, but you've never actually took the time to learn how to properly use it.
Because guess what? Dollar cost averaging can be terrible, but you know what's very laughable? is a lot of people will say dollar cost averaging will get you wrecked, but guess what else gets people wrecked? What 90% of the world tries to do is pick tops and bottoms and get death by a thousand paper cuts. They're going to short here with a tight stop and get wrecked, get wrecked, get wrecked, get wrecked.
And then by the time they get one, well, yeah, looks like they caught the top, but they got death by a thousand paper cuts over here. Maybe they end the day with one R after losing seven, right? Or it was just genuinely a red day and they kept on getting stopped out. I don't know.
But single entry trading can be just as dangerous if you don't know how to respect it. So there's no better strategy. I'm not even saying dollar cost averaging is the best. I'm just saying for me and for how I trade and finding peace on the charts, this is the most efficient way for me and the most stress-free way for me to manage my risk and just use statistics. Because the statistics are going to be that way because they are that way, right?
They are 67, 80% because they're 60, 70, 80%. There's no ifs, ands, or buts about it. And so when I move my profit target with my average, what I'm doing is now prices having to move less real estate. Okay, so from here to here is now way less than from here to here.
And so now price only has to move to here to make double the money down here for less distance and a better entry. It's just math. It's just math.
And why did I go through that entire tangent is because I want you guys to understand for a good amount of trades that do happen like this, there are some trades that do take 50, 60, 70 points of drawdown, maybe even more. And I build a really, those are my home run trades. Those are my trades where I build a position. We finally get that statistical price movement towards my statistical direction.
And now my trade is worth a really good amount of money. Or I hit a stop loss or I hit my max loss for that day. I'm not meaning max losses in a prop firm. I'm meaning max loss that I gave myself for that account.
And so it's that simple. Like I'm either going to bed with this much being down. managing my risk, or I'm going to bed this many DCAs up from however I'm trading statistics.
So now we are going to, now this is something PAC specific. And so let's break down the statistics we've used so far. We used midnight, we used opening hour prices.
And what I mean by that is Right here, we've used the statistics all the way from one, two, three, four, five, six, seven. And all you got to do, guys, is take the midnight snap, go to the hourly time frame to pull, you know, 900 plus days and then cycle through this opening hour. You can just do this opening hour one and then it'll refresh, give you a new statistic.
You can see right here in the past 11 days at 60 percent, whatever the case may be. Right. You're just going to update it.
And then these lines right here, that's all these are. This isn't a part of the midnight snap. This is just an indicator one of our pack members created and then I'm just writing whatever that statistic is in here And I'm putting it into the indicator here.
That's just showing the Opening prices and so you can see right here like look at this every single one of these opening prices The the retracement from 8 to 11 for 2 o'clock is 68.9 70 71.7 78 percent 99.9. Obviously you're gonna get a 99.9 from eight o'clock retracing to the eight o'clock. The only reason I keep the eight o'clock right here, uh, because it's pretty much a 100% is for the very, very, very off chance.
And you'll see this very, very rarely. Sometimes we'll open at eight o'clock and we genuinely will not retrace for quite some time. Well, now guess what? You have a very rare, but sometimes happening 100% or 99.9% probability line, uh, under price.
you best believe I'm not taking longs against a 99.9% probability. I will happily sit on my hands and wait for a short opportunity if that does happen. So now at this point, statistics we've used, again, midnight, opening hour prices. By this point, we've already, no, we haven't gone that far yet. And so now at 9.30, we've also created another statistic.
So let's bring up 930. So 930 right here to 959. All right. So from 930 to 959, I tell people this all the time too. We create another set of probabilities, okay, from 930 from market open to 10 o'clock.
And what is that? Is you could go into midnight snap. I'm not going to do this to save time from nine to 10. If you put nine to 10 in session and then opening hour, you can choose anything. One, two, three, four, five, six, doesn't matter. You're going to find that in the 15 minute increment of time right here, minute 30 and minute 45 is the highest.
Minute 30 is the highest and 45 is the second highest. And what does this mean? From nine to 10, it's saying 930 to 945. So 930 to the end of the hour of that candle.
is the highest probability of retracing every single one of these opening prices, or at least as many as we can. Now, obviously you can see right here, starting at 930, we only retraced five, four, and six. Okay. Out of all of these, I'm not saying they're all going to get hit, but they all have a very high probability of at least that's where the motivation for price is starting at market open.
So that's another cool little statistic that you can add where it's like, okay, if we're overextended above everything. you know, starting at market open, will you best believe that these opening prices now have an even higher chance in that 30 minute time window? of retracing as many as we possibly can. So then we'll write this here. So market open specific.
Let's do that for probabilities for market open. And so now back to this right here is we have some cool stuff that specifically with the pack we use to kind of fine tune our edge. And so you can see starting at, what was this? We had a 100% probability at. at 10 o'clock and that was this short right here for 0.5%.
This was a distribution short that had a 100% probability attached to it. And then we had another one at noon, I think. Yeah, then we retraced to midnight and then at noon we had a 100% short entry aid.
and so this is not the entry aid where it's a little bit lighter and so this was the one that i took right there boom so this one which is the brighter one had a 100 probability attached to it and that one was right there 05 and i think that was the end of the day for that one let's move on to the next day now this recording is already 26 minutes again like i said i only want this to be 30, 45 minutes tops. So we'll see how far I get in the week around like 35 minute mark. All right. Six, seven. Okay.
So let's break down this day again. All right. So with all this context, we got 48 people in the audience.
I want you guys to walk through this. I'm going to ask you all questions and I want you to answer because again, the participation, when we do this live, it really helps people. Even if you get it wrong, right? It helps you learn because now you remember because you had the courage to answer. And so starting at the end, all right, starting at the closing of the seven o'clock, are we above or below midnight?
So in the audience, just say above or below this yellow line right here is midnight. I want to show you guys how stupid simple we're going to demonstrate how stupid simple trading with statistics are. Nobody in this audience has watched hours and hours of NASA science degrees. No one took college for statistics. No one's mathematicians.
Johnny above, season above, big O above. Yeah, exactly, right? We're above midnight open.
Okay, so now we need footprints that are going to be... So do I need to find bullish or bearish footprints? Okay, if we're above midnight open, and we know that the statistic is 65% to 68% probabilities. Do I need to find a bullish or a bearish footprint, right? Bearish.
It's that simple, right? Because why would I need to find bearish? I need to find bearish because if we're looking for shorts towards midnight, I'm not going to be sitting here finding bullish footprints. It makes no sense.
It's just going to give me analysis by paralysis, right? Having 70,000 footprints on my screen. And so starting at seven o'clock, I'm going to take this wick and I'm going to draw it, right?
there and you see how it's interrupted by a candle body and so what I like to do is just keep this here as my footprint and then just in case this breaks I'll draw like one more that's closest to price and so that's this one and you see how this wick also comes up and overlaps with this wick right here and so what I'll do is instead of drawing this one this one and then this one and this one all separate I'll just cover all of these wicks until it's interrupted by a candle body and you see how this is interrupted by the candle body here and so this is where i'm going to stop and then if i have to draw another one right if we do break that i don't even know if we do i don't know then i would draw this one but let's just draw two for now all right then we're gonna go to the one minute this is everything i need right here all right so starting at eight o'clock you can see everything data wise, you can see all the probabilities. All right. So now just with, I don't care what we're going to do.
I don't even know what we do. I don't care what the trend looks like. So for everybody in the audience, is this setting up to be an extreme, like, would you put more risk on if you were tailoring your risk to data or normal risk?
So just answer in the den chat, higher risk or normal risk. Exactly. More risk. You guys are answering this. Without understanding any in-depth level of why or how or any of this stuff.
You're just seeing lines on the screen with statistics backed by them. And if all of the lines are below, then what more do we need, right? What else do I need?
And I also have context on where this cell pressure is most likely going to be. And it could not happen, right? And we also can see over here, look at this. At 10 o'clock. We have a 100% hit rate with our quantum flows.
Again, this is stuff PAC specific. But if we get a bearish, if we're still here by 10 o'clock and I get bearish statistical direction, you best believe I'm going to put even more risk on that. So let's see what happens.
So we come up here, we come up. These little darker rules are not the entry that I use for midnight. I use my entry aids.
We're going to wait for, look at this, by 9 o'clock, we're still getting statistical bearish direction. Boom, first entry right here at 9.35, and guess what happens at 9.30 to 10? Again, 9.30, 10 o'clock, 9.30 to 10 o'clock.
You can see this just like we talked about earlier. Highest probabilities of retracing in this window, as many opening prices as possible. So now you best believe I'm three, three micros deep and we've hit full take profit in a single candle 0.13%, 25 points, one single candle, zero drawdown. Okay.
And then now if I get another short opportunity, you best believe I'm going to take it. especially in that time window. Why? Because that is the highest opportunity to retrace. And we didn't do any.
Again, because these are not magic eight balls. These statistics are not predicting the future. They're just telling us what has a high opportunity chance of happening most days. And so in this day here, we didn't retrace any of them. But guess what?
We had the highest probability time window of at least attracting towards it. And you can see we did that. We captured 25 points.
In this entire window, we had from the first bearish candle all the way down to the valley of this move, 71 points of motivation to at least try. This is why I tell you guys I shoot for statistical profit targets because I don't know if every single day the statistic is going to hit exactly where I'm shooting for. But I do know that we can at least make motivation towards the data. Okay, and so then right here, 10-11. Oh, 5%, 10 points.
Again, this is why I foam at the mouth for 10 points and 25 points, because I don't have to sit here and try to capture this whole move. I can easily with a cash account, prop account, eval account, whatever 10 points is still 10 points, right? And then I tailor my risk to whatever we see here.
If I see that we're overextended still above all of this data, I'm putting on more risk on my minis here because I use minis with my distribution trades. And then we had right here, 1050. 1050, remember what I told you guys, 1050 is the highest probability. I have 100% right here at 1042, a 100% probability of the darker one, which is the quantum flow, quantum flow, 0.5%.
And I mean, look at that. In starting the first trade right here to the last trade, an hour and 10 minutes. And this was 25, 35, 45 points, right?
Okay, let's move on to the next day. All right, again. Are we above or below midnight? Are you bullish or bearish? Just say in the chat, bullish or bearish?
Aloha. If the 10-point position moves against you, are you taking a stop loss or DCA time again? Well, yeah, yeah, because I'm still giving myself room for that trade to breathe, right? Like with one mini, I can take...
0.3% drawdown before that's around starting to get to my max loss. And I know because my statistics of how I enter, again, I'm speaking everything from my specific way of entering. I know that it average on average takes about 0.23 to 0.25% drawdown.
Like it can get, if it wants to get that deep. So that gives me enough room if I am DCA into it, or if I do get a better entry. I can put one additional contract on, but obviously I'm still keeping my max loss on that trade.
So it's never going to be, I'm never blowing an account in a single trade, right? People hear max loss and they think that I'm like blowing an account in a single trade. So when I'm using that, I'm still taking into account what my average statistics are. And so if I want to do higher risk, if I want to put on more risk and I want to use a mini, I can take on 0.3 to 0.35% before that.
that trade is a, is a loser and hits my max loss for that trade. Or I let the trade breathe and it comes back to my statistical profit target, right? There's, there's a lot of scenarios that can happen.
And so it's, that's, uh, yeah, but most of the time it's, it's usually a one and done stop loss or TP with, with one, one mini. Um, okay. So you guys, you guys answered bearish, right?
And why, why did we answer bearish? We answered bearish because we're, we're above, we're above midnight. That's all we got to do. It's all we need. I don't care that we're pumping.
I don't care how crazy bullish this looks because statistics say we're still going to come here 65, 68% of the time. So why do I need to worry about anything else? Me worrying about anything else is only going to over-optimize my entry, over-optimize my way of trading, and I don't need over-optimization.
I just need consistency. And so we get our first entry right here. Look at this. We have Uh, right here, look at this. I remember this day.
Remember, remember what I said earlier when eight o'clock gives us these random little, little opportunities of, uh, showing, showing the hand of that 99.9%. So we came down and the reason why I only did two micros right here was we were in between data, right? We, I was shooting for 0.13%. Now remember what I told you. The first two midnight trades took on zero drawdown.
I think one of them took two points of drawdown, okay? Because not every trade has to be a picture-perfect risk to reward. I don't care what your favorite person online says.
Not every trade has to look like this. As long as your portfolio is operating at a positive profit factor and a positive expectancy, It doesn't matter what a single trade looks like in terms of a risk to reward. It does not.
And so if the majority of my trades look like this, and then for the off chance, sometimes my trades look like this, that is perfectly fine because guess what? They average out at a very positive profit factor and that's all you need. Okay. So in a situation like this, and this is why I wanted to highlight it is look at this. We had an eight o'clock 99% probability of dragging price, at least up to here.
at least up to here. And that's exactly what happened. We took a short here, instantly went into drawdown, came up into this footprint that we drew from the one hour footprints. And then within minutes, because I think this was PPI, right?
If I'm not mistaken, we hit full take profit and look at what happened with the news candle. Because people were even asking me this day. I remember, I think, I forgot who it was, but I recognized profile pictures. I think somebody in the audience.
Um, they even replied to one of my, one of my tweets and was like, are you taking a trade before PPI? Well, yeah, absolutely. I'm not trading the news at all. I'm not trading news. I'm not shorting thinking I can predict what this news candle is.
I'm just going with the data, right? So you best believe I'm going to take two micros and still short because this candle, as scary as it looks, 116 points. I can.
easily take that drawdown if it happens. If we get a whip or whatever, because my stop loss isn't like this, right? I'm not, my stop loss isn't going to get whipped out or whatever, whatever you want to call it.
It's not going to do that because I'm DCAing into it. And so even if we did get a crazy, scary candle, I'm just getting a better position on the way back down, right? Or I'm hitting my max loss. That's all that can happen.
It's just a freaking trade. John Rambo. He says some other funny words, but he just says, it's just an effing trade.
And that's all I'm thinking about every single day. It is just a freaking trade. People want to sit here and over optimize how they trade because of news.
But news is a constant. You are always going to have NFP Friday, CPI, PPI, inflation, FOMC. You are always going to have news events. So why in the world are we so scared?
And we're so fearful and we're always just acting like everything is so just random. We're just like, oh no, it's news today. Oh God, batting down the hatches.
What are you talking about? This happens every week almost. We have two to three red folder events. It is literally a constant that you are going to have high impact news events every single week almost.
There's very few weeks where we barely have little to any. red folder events. So if you're basing every single day off two major things everyone complains about, what's the two major things everyone complains about in trading?
It's choppy and there's news. But guess what, ladies and gentlemen, we range more than we trend. So there's annoyance number one that people constantly whine about like a baby is it's choppy. And number two. is people whining about the news events, but it's happening every week.
So you might as well stop being a whiny baby, and you might as well just get good at what is happening every single day, Monday through Friday, or Tuesday through Friday if it's a holiday weekend, and just get good at what the market is giving you 70% to 80% of the time, which is ranging markets versus trending markets. high impact news days versus non high impact news days. All right.
So now going into, uh, going into Wednesday, we, uh, we had a 100% probability of, of 10 o'clock. We took out every single, every single opening price, right? Uh, yeah.
All the way from one, one, one o'clock. And then was this the day we had, let me see. I think this was the day we had Asia, right?
Or am I wrong? We had Asia retracements one of these days that really, really hit. Oh yeah, right here, look at this.
This was the day. So another statistic, and we're gonna bring this one up right now and mark it down, is the Asia statistic. Asia 1930 to 2030. range. So from 1930 to 2030, we have, if you look historically, 85 to 89%, depending on your start time anchor of measuring this, 80 plus percent probability of retracing the opposing side of this of this 1930 to 2030 Asia range. Okay.
And so When you see that it's left open going into New York, this is a very important level. This is a very important statistic, right? Because this line right here has an 80 plus percent probability attached to it.
And look at what happened. We broke to the downside right here. We broke below it, meaning now we're due to break to the other side of it 80 plus percent of the time. And look at exactly what happened at news at new. And this was another reason I did to Mike.
right here is because not only do we have a 99% retracement to eight o'clock, we also had a fricking 80% right here. So I knew I was like, okay, well, I can't, I can't do three micros here. There's still some data up here that needs to be cleaned up. And so that was, that was that day.
And then I think we got a distro. Yeah. Yeah. We got a distro right here at 934. All right.
So now here's the next question for the audience. This one's going to be a little bit, a little bit, you got to do some thinking here. Why was this 934 short a very high quality short? Somebody let me know in the, in the audience, uh, had long, long order limits at the furthest downside statistic and murder. There you go.
Nice. Nice. Trader Scott, I'll get to your question after this. Season data below, above all open hours, probability set it should reach.
Exactly, exactly. Exactly. And specifically, the main keyword I was looking for was the market open statistic. OK, the market open specific open open hours, which I think you guys were were alluding towards. So right here, 930 to 10 o'clock.
I had bearish distribution at 934. And look at exactly the time window we were in. Right. We were in. Even though we retraced all the opening hours here, the statistic does not care if you measure from 9 to 10 and it shows you these high probabilities from the 30 and the 45 minute.
That's a new set of statistics, right? Just like how starting at 8 o'clock, I don't care how many times we retrace midnight back here. I care about what the statistic says we're going to do starting at 8 because that's what it's measuring.
That's what it's telling us. And so same thing right here. I don't care how many times we retrace right here, starting at market open, if we're overextended, once again, above all of these opening hours, you best believe shorts are my go-to.
That's what I'm looking for. And so we had an 0.5% high probability short right here. And then we get another one right here at 9.43, went right back in.
Now, I think I took this one. I took this one because we were flashing bearish. with my entry aid and people was calling me a cheater in the discord, but this was an absolutely beautiful short. And I took it because we still had an 80 plus percent probability attached to it with the quantum flow.
And we were overextended above everything going into market open and then literally market open just hit my TP. And so there was like 30, there was three different major high probability shorts this day. In addition to the midnight open, and that's how the day was.
We were done again, depending on the last trade you took here, anywhere between one hour, 150, anywhere around here, done for the day. And then let's move into Thursday. Something here.
So I'm going for 10 point. You are switching from a micro to a mini. I get the risk has to be managed the same, but trying to clarify. Yes. And then pocket says yes, because there are smaller market grabs the 10 points and we are using data to get high quality movements to enter the trade.
We are taking higher risk and going with minis for distro moves. Exactly. Exactly. Now I see how Austin gets those banger days.
Yeah. Because think about it, right? Somebody made a joke on Twitter forever back. I just love referencing this because they were like, dude, NASDAQ moves 10 points like it's nothing.
Anybody can grab 10 points. Well, can they? Because I don't think so.
Because you still got to have some probabilities attached to when those are going to move. So it's like, if I can get 10 points... in a very, when all statistics are lining up and be done in an hour, two hours, three hours of trading.
And I can make the same amount as you trying to capture, I don't know, 600 points, right? With two, three micros. Well, that's great. I'm glad that you can do that, but I'm just trying to find peace on the charts.
I'm trying to be as stress-free as possible. And for me, I find less stress in just risking a little bit more for smaller price movements that are attached to high statistical outcomes versus capturing a large move, trying to find that perfect entry to capture that large move with and making the same amount of money. Right.
Because we've seen this all the time. Right. People will try to capture these large moves.
And then guess what? Because price doesn't move in a straight line most of the time. You're going to get this right here. Well, people, they'll try to do this with a tight stop, and they'll capture this large move just for it to come right back on them, right, and then tag them out. And then they had, they were up 300-plus points, 200-plus, whatever the case may be.
Like, there would be tremendous amounts of money that they could lock in. This is the joke. that I make where I can't pay my bills if I were to call the electric company and say, hey man, can I pay you in 9R? They're going to laugh at me.
What are you talking about? Is this a new currency? Is this a cryptocurrency? What are you trying to sell me here?
No, dude, I had a trade that went 9R. Can I pay my bills in 9R? No, your electric bill is $130. You got to give me $130. So instead of trying to sit here and watch this trade go tremendously in your favor just to come back and either hit your stop or maybe you...
You put your stops from here to in profit, which is great. But like, just take that move and move on, right? If you can get a consistent, I don't know, 100 points, 50 points from the market, guys, that is a gift.
So use it. I think PTFX, he's a member in the Discord. He said this one time. He said, dude, you've opened my eyes to how we trade because if I went like...
If I went back on all of my trades in the past X amount of years, he said forever ago when he first started, if he just took every, think of every single trade and you seen yourself going 40, 50 bucks in profit just for to lose that trade. But instead of losing that trade, you took that 40 or 50 unrealized gain and turning it into a realized gain. How much money would you have made?
Like it's, it's just easy money, right? Like it's, it's not easy, but take the low hanging fruit. We as retail traders, we are not able to know when this bottom is going to happen, when this top is going to happen. We can have very high guesses, but none of us actually know. I don't care who says what.
None of us know when the bottom and tops are going to be. And so if I am accepting of that, then I'm just trying to get a portion of this in-profit move, the statistical profit target of what most likely happens most of the time. So now moving into Thursday, same thing, right?
We're below midnight this day. So I'm looking for bullish distributions. We are in a bullish footprint.
Now look at this day compared to the other days of the week, starting at eight o'clock. Where are we at? We're in between data.
We're in between the statistics. And so this day is an amazing opportunity to see, guess what? Today's not the day to put on more risk. And look at also.
what happened. We literally were within points of midnight and we got a bullish distribution right at eight o'clock. We were 2.5 points for midnight. So I will ask you guys, if you want to be a statistical trader and only shoot for high probability price movements, am I just going to have two brain cells and say, well, but... Profit target's 0.13.
Okay, but if we have midnight, that gives us statistical price movement, statistical direction. Think of it like a magnet. If this magnet is its strongest from eight to 11, do I want only a ninth, a 10th? I said a ninth. A 10th of my profit to be covered by this magnet?
Absolutely not. I want the majority. And again, people are going to be like, well, how many points? It doesn't matter. Stop thinking too.
It's not that difficult. It's not that deep, right? I just want a good portion of my profit to be covered by the magnet that is going to take me to my profit.
And so in this case here, these are very rare. These don't happen a lot. If I get a trade right before midnight, like within points, I'm just going to minimize my profit, right?
I'm just going to minimize whatever my target is to whatever. like the closest or shoot for just 0.5% because I know 10 points is very, very high with the way that I trade. And so I was okay doing two micros, two micros. Remember, remember all these home run trades we had Monday through Wednesday. And then in this day here, you're in Austin, you're excited to trade with two micros to make what?
30, 40 bucks, 35 bucks. You best believe I am. Because this is managing risk.
Now, later in the day, you're going to see we come and hit 0.13%. Like, it's easy. But still, I'm okay with that. Because I need to know and be mature enough and disciplined enough to know when to put risk on and when to take risk off. When to just lower my risk.
Because this statistic is still very strong. This 1 o'clock opening price is still 70 plus percent probability. So...
I'm just going to shoot for the low hanging fruit, right? And the low hanging fruit this day is still giving my portfolio. moving up and to the right, but it's just not going to be as fast. And that's fine. Not every day is going to be massive home run days, right?
And so we get 34 bucks, two micros here, right? And then now we're moving into taking every single data point to the upside out. We took the one o'clock, two o'clock midnight.
We're coming into 10 o'clock here with a 100% probability strike rate from our objective entry criteria. We're getting a bearish right now, but it's only 66.67. Everything is below price.
So I'm not going to take that because it has a lower strike rate. And look at this. I think this even still hits and I was okay.
Oh no, it doesn't. Okay. And I was okay missing out on this, right?
I'm only looking for the highest. And so at this point, I was either looking for a bearish entry eight. Okay. Which is the brighter red ones that is bringing me towards this statistics, or I'm just waiting for 10 o'clock.
I'm waiting for 10 o'clock to hit. And then look at what happens. We have news at 830. And look at every single statistic that took out. Every single one of them. Every single opening price smashed in a single candle of that news candle.
And then we had this day here. We had Asia. Yep, right here. We had Asia low.
So 1930 to 2030. But to the. opposing side remember the other day we were looking for the high and now we have a statistic right here giving us a 85 to 90 probability of coming down to here and again you think i'm crazy you would think dude look at the high time frame trend we're so bullish we're so bullish do you really think we're going to move this much to here well that's what the statistics say I don't care what the high timeframe says. The data says we're moving here 85 plus percent of the time. So I'm still short. I'm still bearish.
I have no other choice but to be. And so we come down. I don't care about any green position. I don't care about any bullish whatsoever. Look at this.
This one even hits 0.5%. I don't care. That's not my trade to take. And then we have, is this a nine o'clock?
Nine o'clock. I think some people took this one. I don't think this is a short I took because I was now looking for long. Oh yeah, this wasn't a short that I took because we had bullish statistical direction.
So here's a perfect example of me again, waiting for the highest, highest probability trade setups. At 923, we still had an 85 to 90% probability of coming to here. And so you'd be like, well, Austin, why didn't you take that short?
Because I had statistical bullish direction. And so if I have contradicting probabilities, if I'm contradicting here and here, I just sit out. I just wait for the highest probability trade to happen. And so the highest probability trade to happen was, and we were streaming this live in the pack, is I wanted to see Asia Low get taken out, in which we did.
We took out the 1930 to 2030 statistic, and now the rest of the data is above because guess what happens? Guess what happens at market open? Market open, once again, 9.30 to 10. We're coming back.
We're coming back to as many opening hours as possible from market open to 10 o'clock. And we have bullish statistical direction for the hour of nine. Now we have everything on our side. This short, we had contradicting probabilities. Now in this window of time, we have everything to the upside.
Now that we successfully took Asia. And then right here, we get bullish distribution at 933. You best believe I'm putting two minis on this long for 0.5% price movement. And we took maybe four points of drawdown, five points of drawdown. Okay, maybe a little bit more, 11 points of drawdown.
To make, there we go, right there. And then I think we, did we have one more? I think we had one more long here. because we still failed to retrace the rest of the opening hours.
So then we can't. Yep. Is this it?
There was a quantum flow at 10. Yeah, I think this the quantum flow is the one I took here at 953 because we had an 80 plus percent probability attached to it. And we were still below in that high probability window. I think this was a long I took.
I could be wrong. I could be wrong. Don't quote me on that one. I think we still get another one.
Yeah, we still get another long right here. or two for 10 points because we failed to retrace one, two, and three right there. So either way, right, you still had a high probability long here.
or another high probability long here. Either way, we were still below those data points for 930 to 10. And so that's what kind of fed me the high probability longs for this day. All right, moving into the last day, we're at, we just hit one hour on the recording. So I'm kind of a little bit running a little bit longer than I wanted to, but that's fine. We can finish off on Friday.
All right. Do I have any questions before we go into Friday? Any questions at all?
Um, big O what's Nancy EU and Johnson range. Uh, Nancy EU and Johnson, Nancy, the EU. So the EU is just the first 30 minutes of three o'clock to three 30 and the Johnson. Don't worry about it. Don't worry about the Nancy and Johnson ring.
No, I don't want to get you guys confused and stuff. We're going to keep it very simple. Did you do you take distros if you have data above and below?
No, I want everything I want everything to line up right you seeing every single distro We took this in this back test or not back test in this review of what we did this week It all involved every statistic lining up bro for real at first. I was like what the heck are they do? Are these people doing now? I'm 100% Yeah. Yeah.
See it's like We're just tailoring our risk to data and now you're seeing it Tops and bottoms always happen exactly at my margin call price, please. The hourly statistic data indicator is open. Yeah, okay, pocket got you.
With the midnight open, you can do this style of trading, but a crap ton of work and data goes into the statistical direction indicator. Yeah, yeah, if you're talking about this over here, this has a lot of work tied to it. there there's a reason why this is as good as as you can see here and again it shows you black and white data black and white data um so there's no making this stuff up but yeah absolutely aloha um and and johnny you're welcome fnc i'd love to have a five minute time frame back test session with you candles are illusions that's it candles are illusions guys yeah alex you Dude, we can do a back testing session later today.
I'm about to go hiking again. But when I get back, absolutely. All right, so let's get in for the recording sake.
Let's do the last day here, and then we can kind of discuss a little bit. So starting at the close of 7 o'clock, we are above midnight, but ever so slightly. So I think this day we, I don't think we got a midnight retracement trade this day on Friday.
Let me see. I think we retrace. Yeah, we retrace midnight at eight o'clock. And so now that we fulfilled the statistic of eight to 1115 retracing to midnight, I'm up at this day here.
I would, and I even posted on X. I was like, Hey, I am, uh, I'm done trading for the week. We had such a good week.
Everything hit on point. I'm okay. Just kind of sitting on my hands and just calling it a week.
And then guess what happens? We fast forward. We have, because again, look at this.
We retraced midnight. I can't take distributions until everything lines up. So this bullish distribution here is, it's not a good trade because we have data below and data above.
And so now we keep on going into the day and look at this. Boom. We took every statistic to the downside.
Now, if you're looking on my chart, What's left? What are you, what, what's left statistics wise that now turns my, turns my lights on, has light bulbs going off in my head. And I'm like, okay, now I can actually look for a trade.
If we're looking at just pure data, what statistic has not been fulfilled? Wait for an answer. I'm going to hear some ASMR coffee here.
7 o'clock. Exactly. The 7 right here.
We failed to retrace it. Guys, this is an 86.2% probability out of the past 900 plus days. We have retraced 7 o'clock. 86.2%. You think I'm going to sleep on that?
Absolutely not. Scroll back and see, okay, do we have an Asia? Nope.
Because look, we broke above Asia, came back down, hit the other side during Asia. So we don't have Asia unmitigated, whatever you want to call it, unmitigated, unretraced, doesn't freaking matter. Didn't hit, right? We don't have it opening.
We come down here and we can see we're far extended below every other data point to the upside as far as the retracements goes. And so now my eyes are opened up. I'm like, all right, maybe now we're looking for a potential high probability long. Look at the eight o'clock.
Eight o'clock is gray for the pack because this is a pack specific thing that we have here. Gray means there's no clear statistical direction for this hour based on what the data we have into it. And so now I'm saying, OK, I'm either getting a bull.
If I get a bullish entry aid. regardless of what time it is, because I have statistics to the upside in my favor, I'm taking a long or I'm going to wait for nine o'clock to say it's bullish statistical direction. And so then right here, 850, boom, 05% shooting for 10 points.
I take on a little bit of drawdown. 10 points and I'm done for the week. This is the final trade.
That's all I need. 10 points, last high probability price movement. I don't need to trade anymore.
I tell people this all the time on Fridays. I want to carry the momentum into next week. I'm still going to trade my plan.
If the day is set up to be extremely, extremely high probability, then dude, I'm going to take it. Yes, this is recorded by the way. I'm going to post this on my YouTube channel.
But yeah, right here, I mean, 10 points, I'm good. That's icing on the cake for my week. But then you can also see if I were to keep on trading, which some people in the pack did, look at nine o'clock.
Nine o'clock does not have a statistical direction. It's still grayed, still grayed out. And then right here, you get a bullish distribution at 934 because that seven o'clock still wasn't retraced.
And so... if you wanted to keep on putting risk, there's your 10 points. And look at where we came into, ladies and gentlemen. Guess what? Guess what also we have?
9.30 to 10 o'clock. Last 30 minutes. Retracing the highest probabilities of all of these opening hours.
And so this long at 9.34 would still be stupid high probability. Because we had 7 o'clock still at 86.2% probability, we have the last 30 minutes of 9 to 10 trying to retrace as many opening hours as possible. And on this day, we hit all of them. So again, what else do you need? And so in this day here, starting at 8 o'clock, we were either done.
I was done in 56 minutes. Some people was done. hour and a half, hour 36. And then I don't think we had any other trades this day.
We had, oh, well, I mean, you did, look at this. We had a 100%. Here, let me replay that again, if you guys didn't see.
So starting at 10 o'clock, we had bearish statistical direction. So watch, watch this. You see how it's still, everything is gray. Starting at 10 o'clock, boom, we had bearish statistical direction.
We have a 100% strike rate in current market conditions of 0.5% being hit with our quantum flow. And so now, if you still were trading, which again, you shouldn't be because this is just beautiful, but whatever the case may be, here was a short right here for 0.5% price movement at the close of this candle. 100% of probability of being hit, took on some drawdown, boom, 10 points. And that was a 100% probability trade.
And we were above all of these opening prices with statistical direction being bearish. And so that was the week. And then the final statistic that I tell people, and again, this has nothing to do with me trading, does not influence my trades at all.
And that's the weekly profile. We see if we are in line. to have a statistical bullish week.
We're going to make that weekly low on a Monday or Tuesday. If you take a look at today or this past week, Monday, September 9th, we technically made the weekly low on a Sunday, which is out of statistic, which was, let me see, Sunday was here. And so we made the low here on a Sunday. Like I said, technically it's out of statistic, but we made the weekly high on Friday.
which was in statistic for if we do have a bullish week, we're going to make the weekly high on a Thursday or a Friday and the low is going to be a Monday or Tuesday. And so by Wednesday, I seen that we were making structure, even though it was a Sunday low above that Sunday low. And then you can see Monday's low as we're still creating structure above it. And so by Wednesday, close of business Wednesday, I was like, yeah, we're due for a bullish week. And so by Friday, you know, I wasn't surprised that we were going to make that week, that new weekly high.
Again, it has nothing to do with me trading. This is me sports broadcasting on ESPN, but you can see that happening week over week as well. So that is it for the recording of this video. If you guys got value from this, like I ask all the time, just make sure you like, subscribe, comment below if you want to see anything else.
And yeah, there you go.