Lecture on the Taliban

Background and Context

The Taliban have been involved in conflict with the Afghan government and its allies for 20 years.
With the impending departure of US troops by September 11, there is concern about the Taliban gaining more power.
Understanding the Taliban requires a look back to the 1980s in Afghanistan.

1980s: Mujahideen guerrillas, supported by the CIA, fought against the Soviet occupation.
1989: Soviets withdrew from Afghanistan, leading to chaos and civil war by 1992.
1994: The Taliban militia started emerging, consisting of individuals who had studied in conservative religious schools and some former mujahideen.
1996: Taliban captured Kabul, declaring Afghanistan an Islamic emirate with strict Islamic law.

2001: Post-9/11, the US invaded Afghanistan after the Taliban refused to hand over Osama bin Laden.
Taliban were ousted from power, leading to a new interim government and election of Hamid Karzai as president in 2004.
Despite being ousted, the Taliban regrouped and continued to fight to oust foreign troops and regain control.

Devastating conflict ensued with enormous casualties:
- 40,000 Afghan civilians killed
- ≥64,000 Afghan military and police deaths
- 3,500 international soldiers dead
- Nearly a trillion dollars spent by the US on war and reconstruction
Afghanistan remains unstable with a powerful Taliban presence.

Fighters: Approximately 85,000 full-time fighters and multiple training camps.
Territorial Control: Control one-fifth of Afghan districts, with strong presence in many contested areas and some major highways.
Organization: Led by Haibatullah Akhundzada, with a council managing finance, health, education, and local officials running everyday services.
Parallel State: They run their own courts, which are popular among some Afghans.
Revenue: Generate $1.5 billion annually from opium, drug trade, mining, mineral trades, meth production, and have a tax system.

Multiple attempts at peace negotiations with limited success.
Increased violence and assassinations blamed on the Taliban during ongoing peace talks.
Concerns about departure of US/NATO troops: Can the Afghan government survive?
Many Afghans fear potential regression to harsh rule if Taliban take over.
Taliban claim in a NYT op-ed that they want to ensure women's rights within an Islamic system, but this remains varied in practice.
Public Opinion: A 2019 study showed 85% of Afghans had no sympathy for the Taliban, though the group is determined and strategic in their aims.

The situation in Afghanistan remains uncertain and volatile.
Continuous monitoring needed to understand future developments regarding the Taliban and Afghan government.

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