Public Opinion and Democratic Politics

Importance of Public Opinion

• Public opinion is crucial yet elusive in democratic politics.
• Walter Lippman: Public affairs concern us, but private ones immerse us.
• Government should theoretically rest on informed will of the people.

Historical Perspectives on Public Opinion

• Edmund Burke: Citizens are ill-equipped for policy judgments; representatives should decide.
• Jeremy Bentham: Citizens deserve to be heard; public opinion guards against misrule.
• Modern view: People's opinions matter, but how to determine them was debated.

Development of Opinion Polling

• Scientific polling (1930s): Became the method for determining public opinion.
• Gallup Poll (1936): Accurately predicted Roosevelt's election.

Nature of Opinion Polling

• Sampling: Small, random samples estimate opinions of a larger population.
• Reliability is based on probability laws (e.g., marble jar analogy).
• Sampling Error: Difference between sample estimate and actual population figure.

Attributes of Public Opinion

• Direction: People can favor or oppose policies.
• Intensity: Strength of opinion affects policymakers' attention.
• Salience: Importance of an issue relative to others influences policy attention.

Case Study: Gun Control

• American Gun Ownership: Highest ratio of guns to people globally.
• Gun Legislation History: Varies from restrictions in the 1930s and 1960s to less regulation post-1990s.
• Public Opinion: Direction, Intensity, and Salience
  • More Americans often favor stricter controls, but opposition is more intense and salient.
  • Mass shootings temporarily increase salience of gun control.

Influence of Public Opinion on Policy

• Public opinion constrains officials; limits policy choices.
• High-profile Issues: Policy changes often follow public opinion shifts.
• Policy vs. Public Opinion: Sometimes policy leads opinion (e.g., civil rights).
• Intensity and Salience: Key in determining if opinion will influence policy.

Conclusion

• Early theories and the advent of polling changed opinion measurement.
• Attributes of opinion (direction, intensity, salience) affect policy decisions.
• Research shows a strong link between public opinion and policy on salient issues.