Cryptocurrency Market Analysis with Blockchain Backer
Introduction
- Focus on cryptocurrency market state, including macroeconomic factors.
- Bitcoin at $60,900.
- Importance of U.S. stock market breadth in crypto market expansion.
Bitcoin Market Analysis
- Bitcoin peaked in April-May 2021, not in November 2021.
- Comparison with 2013-2014 market behavior.
- Indicators like RSI, stochastic RSI, and MACD pointed to April 2021 peak.
Altcoin Market
- Altcoins peaked in April-May 2021 at the 702 Fibonacci retracement.
- Examples: Dogecoin, Litecoin.
- Altcoins did not set new highs in November 2021.
- Similarities with 2017 market behavior following Bitcoin's peak.
Macro Market Influence
- Importance of U.S. stock market expansion for Bitcoin and crypto market.
- Historical examples: 2013, 2017, and 2021 bull runs.
- Current stock market shows consolidation into large-cap stocks.
- Russell 2000 not following along.
- Comparisons to 2019 pre-C19 market consolidation.
Indicators and Market Sentiment
- Relation of Fed policies and stock market trends with Bitcoin prices.
- Difference between QE (Quantitative Easing) and QT (Quantitative Tightening).
- Impact of Fed pause cycles.
Bitcoin Dominance and Stablecoins
- Bitcoin dominance includes stablecoins; altering the dominance calculation to exclude them shows higher Bitcoin dominance.
- Ethereum's dominance and its impact on the market.
- Ethereum’s stability compared to 2018 scenario.
Market Complications
- Broader market risk aversion vs. expansion.
- Correlation with retirement funds and market breadth.
- Bitcoin's behavior must align with stock market expansion.
Historical Context and Current Market
- Crypto market dynamics compared to historical financial crises.
- Recession concerns for newer market participants.
- Over-reliance on Bitcoin four-year cycles and block reward halvings can be misleading without considering broader market factors.
Conclusion
- Importance of market breadth and stock market expansion for Bitcoin and crypto market growth.
- Need for a triggering event for market expansion.
- Past data shows consistent correlation between broader market expansion and BTC bull runs.
Further Reading and Learning
- Blockchain Backer's new newsletter on market breadth and expansion.
- bcbacker.com for tutorials and deeper learning.
Note: This lecture aims to provide detailed understanding of the current market complications and highlights the importance of broader economic factors on Bitcoin and the crypto market.