Cryptocurrency Market Analysis with Blockchain Backer

Jul 2, 2024

Cryptocurrency Market Analysis with Blockchain Backer

Introduction

  • Focus on cryptocurrency market state, including macroeconomic factors.
  • Bitcoin at $60,900.
  • Importance of U.S. stock market breadth in crypto market expansion.

Bitcoin Market Analysis

  • Bitcoin peaked in April-May 2021, not in November 2021.
    • Comparison with 2013-2014 market behavior.
    • Indicators like RSI, stochastic RSI, and MACD pointed to April 2021 peak.

Altcoin Market

  • Altcoins peaked in April-May 2021 at the 702 Fibonacci retracement.
    • Examples: Dogecoin, Litecoin.
  • Altcoins did not set new highs in November 2021.
    • Similarities with 2017 market behavior following Bitcoin's peak.

Macro Market Influence

  • Importance of U.S. stock market expansion for Bitcoin and crypto market.
    • Historical examples: 2013, 2017, and 2021 bull runs.
  • Current stock market shows consolidation into large-cap stocks.
    • Russell 2000 not following along.
    • Comparisons to 2019 pre-C19 market consolidation.

Indicators and Market Sentiment

  • Relation of Fed policies and stock market trends with Bitcoin prices.
    • Difference between QE (Quantitative Easing) and QT (Quantitative Tightening).
    • Impact of Fed pause cycles.

Bitcoin Dominance and Stablecoins

  • Bitcoin dominance includes stablecoins; altering the dominance calculation to exclude them shows higher Bitcoin dominance.
  • Ethereum's dominance and its impact on the market.
    • Ethereum’s stability compared to 2018 scenario.

Market Complications

  • Broader market risk aversion vs. expansion.
    • Correlation with retirement funds and market breadth.
  • Bitcoin's behavior must align with stock market expansion.

Historical Context and Current Market

  • Crypto market dynamics compared to historical financial crises.
    • Recession concerns for newer market participants.
  • Over-reliance on Bitcoin four-year cycles and block reward halvings can be misleading without considering broader market factors.

Conclusion

  • Importance of market breadth and stock market expansion for Bitcoin and crypto market growth.
  • Need for a triggering event for market expansion.
  • Past data shows consistent correlation between broader market expansion and BTC bull runs.

Further Reading and Learning

  • Blockchain Backer's new newsletter on market breadth and expansion.
    • bcbacker.com for tutorials and deeper learning.

Note: This lecture aims to provide detailed understanding of the current market complications and highlights the importance of broader economic factors on Bitcoin and the crypto market.