Analyzing Tesla Stock Decisions

Sep 17, 2024

Tesla Stock Sale and Analysis

Introduction

  • Sold Tesla stock for the first time since 2021.
  • Shares purchased in June 2019 at $2,900; sold now for over $45,000.
  • Reasons for selling and retaining some shares.

Reasons for Selling

Company Performance

  • Tesla’s recent revenue growth has been poor:
    • 8% growth, 3% growth, 8% growth, -8% shrink, 2% growth over recent quarters.
    • Comparison to other companies like Coca-Cola, Pepsi, McDonald's, which had better numbers.
  • Decline in gross margins since early 2022.

Lack of Pricing Power

  • Companies like Meta, Apple, and Nvidia have shown strong pricing power, unlike Tesla.
  • Tesla's ability to command higher prices is diminishing.

Valuation Concerns

  • Tesla’s P/E ratios are high, especially compared to peers like Meta and Nvidia.
  • Earnings per share growth and revenue growth are not strong enough to support high valuations.

Slow Progress

  • Cybertruck and Semi production ramps are slower than expected.
  • Delay in the release of new features, such as the range extender.
  • Autonomous vehicle developments are lagging behind competitors like Waymo.

Elon Musk's Influence

  • Concerns over Elon Musk’s focus and prioritization of Tesla.
  • Perception of Musk as a controversial figure rather than a business innovator.
  • Lack of preparation for high-interest rate environments.

Reasons for Retaining Shares

Future Market Potential

  • Belief in near 100% EV adoption over the next decade.
  • Tesla’s leading position in the EV market.

Autonomous Taxi Networks

  • Potential for Tesla to lead in autonomous taxi networks.

Tesla's Services

  • Expected growth in Tesla’s service areas, including self-driving subscriptions, supercharging, parts, and insurance.

Culture and Workforce

  • Strong innovative culture and intelligent workforce at Tesla.

Future Outlook

  • Upcoming Robo Taxi event on October 10th could influence stock momentum.
  • Tesla’s potential to regain footing with new developments.

Conclusion

  • The decision to sell some shares is based on a combination of company performance, valuation, and strategic concerns.
  • Retaining shares is based on long-term belief in Tesla’s market positioning and future growth potential.