Population Growth and Decline

Key Concepts

• Fertility Rates

  • Indicate a population's ability to have children.
  • Vital for government planning in infrastructure, education, and healthcare.

• Mortality Rates

  • Indicate a population's rate of deaths.
  • Can be measured as Crude Death Rate and Infant Mortality Rate.

• Migration

  • A major factor in population changes, to be covered in more depth later.

Fertility Rates

Measurement Methods

1. Crude Birth Rate (CBR)

   • Number of live births per 1,000 people in a year.
   • Less accurate as it includes all age groups and genders.

2. Total Fertility Rate (TFR)

   • Average number of children a woman will have during her childbearing years (15-49).
   • More accurate as it focuses on the population capable of having children.

Geographic Trends

• Low CBR in North America (10-20 per 1,000).
• Transitional CBR in North Africa (20-30 per 1,000).
• High CBR in Sub-Saharan Africa (>30 per 1,000).
• TFR replacement level is 2.1.
  • Europe has TFR of 1.6, indicating declining population.
  • Sub-Saharan Africa has TFR of 4.6, indicating growth.

Mortality Rates

Measurement Methods

1. Crude Death Rate (CDR)

   • Number of deaths per 1,000 people.
   • Global average is 8 per 1,000.
   • Decreased from 13 per 1,000 in 1960, indicating longer life expectancy.

2. Infant Mortality Rate (IMR)

   • Number of children who die before age one per 1,000 live births.
   • Indicates healthcare access.
   • High IMR in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Rate of Natural Increase (RNI)

• Calculated as CBR minus CDR.
• Indicates population growth or stability.
  • RNI of Sub-Saharan Africa is high.
  • RNI of the United States is stable.
  • Negative RNI in Germany indicates decline.
• Limitation: Does not include migration effects.

Doubling Time

• Time it takes for a population to double at current growth rates.
• Nigeria: Doubling time of 27 years at 2.6% growth.
• United States: Doubling time of 233 years at 0.3% growth.

Factors Influencing Population Growth and Decline

1. Social and Cultural Factors

   • Religion influences fertility rates (e.g., Catholics and Muslims).
   • Traditional gender roles can increase birth rates.

2. Political Factors

   • Governments may implement pronatalist or anti-natalist policies.
   • Pronatalist policies encourage population growth.
   • Anti-natalist policies restrict growth (e.g., China's one-child policy).

3. Economic Factors

   • Economic downturns can lower birth rates.
   • Economic growth can increase birth rates.
   • Economic conditions also influence migration.