Lecture Notes: Numeracy and Statistics

Introduction

• In 2003, UK government surveyed numeracy levels in the population.
• Findings: For every 100 working-age adults, 47 lacked level one numeracy skills (low-end GCSE).
• Policy changes and investments followed the initial findings.
• 2011 survey results showed an increase to 49 lacking skills.
  • Reader's reaction: "Only shocking to 51% of the population."
  • A student questioned the reliability of the data source.

Importance of Numeracy

• Numeracy is essential for daily life and future developments.
• Not just a UK issue; similar findings in the USA where nearly 40% of young people have low numeracy skills.
• Seven OECD countries have over 20% low numeracy rates.
• Countries with low rates (Netherlands and Korea) are in single digits, indicating it can be improved.

False Dichotomy of Numeracy

• Common belief: People are either comfortable with numbers or not.
• This is a false dichotomy; one doesn’t need high numeracy to appreciate numbers.
• Statistics can be a starting point for engagement with numeracy.

The Image Problem of Statistics

• Statistics often viewed negatively, even by mathematicians.
• Math is about precision; statistics deals with uncertainty.
• The speaker was initially skeptical of statistics but became inspired by its relevance to societal understanding.

Statistics About Us

• Statistics focus on communities, not individuals.
• Recent Ipsos MORI surveys reveal public misconceptions about demographics:
  • Average belief: 24 out of 100 in England and Wales are Muslim (official figure is about 5).
  • Misperceptions on teenage pregnancy rates (public perception: 15%; reality: much lower).
  • Similar surveys in Saudi Arabia and Japan show significant variations in beliefs vs. reality.
• Daniel Kahneman's research highlights flaws in intuitive statistics and decision-making.

Local vs. Global Understanding

• Proposed a local quiz to test knowledge about one's area using census data.
• Designed to be accessible to everyone, regardless of numeracy skills.
• Utilized Otto Neurath's isotypes to represent data visually.

The Quiz

• Participants answer questions about their local area based on census data.
• Example questions include:
  • Percentage of under-16s in the area.
  • Average age of residents.
  • Homeownership statistics.
• Gamification of statistics encouraged engagement.

Success of the Quiz

• Launched quiz spurred significant online interaction.
• Over 250,000 players within 48 hours of launch.
• Discussions on social media centered around misconceptions.
• Politicians engaged in the quiz to assess their awareness of their constituents.

Results from Known Figures

• National Statistician John Pullinger scored 44; journalist Jeremy Paxman scored 36 on their own local areas.
• Demonstrates that everyone can be surprised by numerical data.

Conclusion

• Statistics often seen as the science of uncertainty; however, they are fundamentally about us.
• Encourages fascination and engagement with numbers.

Thank You!

• Closing remarks about the importance of embracing statistics in understanding society.