Forward Guidance Podcast - Episode Recap

Introduction

Recent CPI data came in higher than expected.
- Core inflation: 0.3% month-over-month (expectations: 0.2%).
- Year-over-year: 3.3% (expectations: 3.2%).
- First year-over-year increase for core inflation since early 2023.
Jobless claims came in above expectations.
- Influenced by strikes and hurricanes.
Shelter inflation and owner's equivalent rent trends.
- Makes up a significant portion of current inflation.
Goods inflation rebounded, services inflation lower than expected.

Market digestion post-FOMC rate cuts.
- Potential rate pause in November discussed.
Inflation psychological and mechanical aspects.
- Market uncertainties surrounding the U.S. election.
- Fed's dual mandate: unemployment vs. inflation.

Inflation perceived as still present by many market players.
Policy decisions and historical context.
- Comparison between post-WWII GI Bill and COVID-era wealth transfers.
- Influence on asset prices and market structure.

Central bank coordination and market impacts.
- Cross-currency impacts dampened by central bank actions.
- Recent large market moves in Japan and China.

Market expectations around U.S. elections.
Potential implications of a Trump vs. Kamala win.
- Expectations of regulatory changes and market reactions.

Current state of Bitcoin and altcoins.
- Government selling and its impact on Bitcoin prices.
- Potential for altcoin season and crypto equities.
Bitcoin and macro market alignment.
- Importance of understanding crypto in the context of higher interest rates.

Inflation and economic outlook.
- Importance of adjusting investment strategies in response to macroeconomic shifts.
Final thoughts on geopolitical tensions and market stability.
Encouragement to subscribe to the Forward Guidance newsletter and podcast for ongoing insights.