Lecture Notes: Market Analysis

Introduction

Yesterday's Market: Ended up with prices stopping at a congestion area around a pivot low.
- Mentioned in a midday video: Momentum was slowing down as indicated by closer pivots on a 15-minute chart.
Gap Up in Today's Market:
- Questions arise: Is it gapping above resistance or just an inside gap from yesterday's close?
- Today's gap is near yesterday's high, indicating an inside day.

Daily Chart: Prices near resistance and into congestion.
- Gapping above a red bar, clearing resistance tested on different time frames.
Ideal Scenario for a Long Position:
- 15-30 minutes of sideways movement with a potential spike down and back up (180 reversal or a bottoming tail bar).
- Next reference point: Yesterday's resistance area after three days of upward movement.
Alternate Scenario: Gap-and-crap within an inside day, still constructive if it holds support.
Weekly Chart: Multiple days down into support, hoping for a green close by week's end.

Inside Gap Up: Near resistance area.
- Mentioned pivot low and resistance from yesterday's chart.
Trading Approach for SPX:
- Willing to take a chance with credit spreads around whole numbers (5100 level).
- Emphasis on high probability of success if below 5100.

Overall Sentiment: Inside day with pivots to the left, creating a sideways movement.
- Bullish price action at resistance, absorbing supply effectively.
Potential Upside: Limited, but day trading opportunities exist up to 5400 or higher resistance levels.

Bitcoin: Showing relative strength above pivots.
Regional Banks/Biotechs: To be monitored for strength or breakout failures.
Dow: Similar to other indices, showing range-bound movement.
Semiconductors: Some stocks gapping down despite the index gapping up, indicating mixed sentiment.

Bond Auction at 1 PM: Keep in mind, especially if interested in oil stocks due to upcoming oil numbers.
Volatility Index (VIX): Significant move up recently, now coming back down to earth.

Stocks with Earnings Reports:
- Lumen, Airbnb, SMCI, Trivago: Various gaps and trade setups discussed.
General Observation: Many stocks showing Climax (Climo) patterns, creating major support on hourly charts.
Trade Ideas: Various stocks and ETFs mentioned for potential put spreads or day trades based on current setups.

Market Sentiment: Mixed, with opportunities for both long and short positions.
Trading Strategy: Focus on high-probability setups, especially around identified pivot levels and resistance areas.
Key Considerations: Keep an eye on sector-specific movements, especially in tech, semiconductors, and indexes with significant gaps or earnings reports.