the tools and techniques of identifying risks as per the project management body of knowledge there are six tools and techniques however I am covering 14 of them in this sec in this lecture expert judgment the most frequently project management technique or tool expertise should be considered from individuals or groups with specialized knowledge of similar projects or business areas so as part of the organization you need to make use of any experts who can add value to the risk identification workshops such experts should be should be identified by the project manager and invited to consider all aspects of individual project risks as well as sources of overall project risk based on their previous experience and areas of expertise the expert's bias should be taken into account in this process so the expert judgment can be used as a standalone tool for this process or can you can use expert judgment with other tools I'm covering in this lecture are like the focus groups or the interviews or the meetings you need to conduct interviews and focus groups with experts when it comes to risk management data Gathering techniques that can be used in this process starting with the most popular one the brainstorming sessions the goal of a brainstorming session is to obtain a comprehensive list of individual project risks and sources of the overall project risk and the key advantage of using a brainstorming technique is that you can gather a lot of ideas in a very short period of time the project team usually performs brainstorming often with a multidisciplinary set of experts who are not part of the team so it's preferred to include multiple perspectives it's a key critical success factor for the identify risks process so invite the right participants to the brainstorming session ideas are generated under the guidance of decision facilitator either in a free-form brainstorming session or one that uses more structured techniques categories of risk such as the ones shown in the risk breakdown structure can be used as a framework for this technique particular attention should be paid to ensuring that risks identified through brainstorming are clearly described since the technique can result in ideas that are not fully formed so the quick win of starting a risk identification activity in your project with a brainstorming session is that you can generate a long list of risks with a within a very short period of time the second data Gathering technique is using a checklist and usually checklists are being used as a reminder it's a list of items actions or points to be considered it's often used as a reminder risk checklists are developed based on historical information and knowledge that has been accumulated from similar projects and from other sources of information so usually by checking your organizational process assets you can find some useful risk checklists they can be effective way to capture Lessons Learned From similar completed projects listing specific individual project tasks that have occurred previously and that may be relevant to your project so checklists cannot be used as a standalone technique or tool it is usually used as a reminder the organization May maintain a risk checklist based on its own completed projects or may use generic risk checklists from the industry while a checklist may be quick and simple to use it's impossible to build an exhaustive one and Care should be taken to ensure that checklist is not used to avoid the effort of proper risk identification that means that you cannot rely only on a risk check lest it can be used only as a reminder the project team should also explore items that do not appear on the checklist Additionally the checklist should be reviewed from time to time to update new information as well as remove or archive obsolete information this is part of a risk checklist covering the technical Rask and the subcategories of a technical risk and example risks so by looking as as by looking at a comprehensive checklist or a long checklist it can be used as a reminder to make sure that you covered this risk and to check if these risks are applicable to your projects interviews this is another data Gathering technique individual project risks and sources of overall project risk that can be identified by interviewing experienced project participants stakeholders and subject matter experts interviews should be conducted in an environment of trust and confidentiality in order to encourage honest and unbiased contributions so you can identify the experts in your organization as part of the expert judgment technique and conduct interviews as part of the data Gathering technique the the the the secret of a successful interview is to give the environment of trust and confidentiality for the participants that are being interviewed data analysis techniques can be very useful after applying the data Gathering techniques starting with the root cause analysis it's typically used to discover the underlying causes that lead to a problem and develop preventive action so usually we apply the root cause analysis and risks and defects Management in order to identify or determine the underlying cause and develop accordingly preventive actions it can be used to identify threats by starting with a problem statement for example the project might be delayed or over budget and exploring which threats might result in that problem occurring so this is how you will apply the root cause analysis to identify the project threats the same technique can be used to find Opportunities by starting with a benefit statement for example early delivery of something you are procuring or under budget and exploring which opportunities might result in that benefit being real realized so root cause analysis is a data analysis technique that can be used to identify threats or opportunities here is an example of using the root cause analysis technique the problem statement is ignoring phase entry prerequisites the causes might be in complete requirements or incorrect reports and you you will dig deep and the sub causes of inquiry correct reports might be repeated audits or might be mistrust the sub-coses for incomplete requirements might be rework extra course schedule slips or low moral and you can dig deeper and have another level of sub causes assumption and constraint analysis every project and its project management plan that are conceived and developed based on a set of assumptions and within a series of constraints these are often already Incorporated in the scope Baseline and project estimates usually the project assumptions are constraints are part of the scope Baseline which is a component of the project management plan now analyzing these assumptions and constraints will explore the validity of assumptions and constraints in order to determine which pose risk to the project threats may be identified from the inaccuracy and stability inconsistency or incompleteness of assumptions constraints may give rise to Opportunities through removing or relaxing a limiting factor that affects the execution of a project or process so assumptions are things that you assume they will be valid and they will be true examining those assumptions and constraints usually release the potential risks in the project if an assumption which you assumed earlier that it is valid you discovered later on that it's not valid anymore so this is a threat for your project SWOT analysis a technique that's frequently used in strategic management and in Risk identification as well this technique examines the project from each of the strings weaknesses opportunities and threats this is why it's known as the SWAT s for strengths W for weaknesses or for opportunities and T4 threats for risk identification it is used to increase the breadth of identified risks by including internally generated risks the technique usually starts with the identification of strengths and weaknesses of the organization focusing on either the project organization or the business area and general SWOT analysis then identifies any opportunities for the project that may arise from the strengths you identified and any threats that can be a result of the weaknesses you identified the analysis also examines the degree to which organizational strengths May offset threats and determines if weaknesses might hinder the opportunities so we usually start by identifying the strengths and weaknesses and then analyze those strings and weaknesses to identify threats and opportunities for the project here is an example of implementing the SWOT analysis in your project you can identify the strings and then determine the potential opportunities from those strengths and then identify the weakness and determine the potential threats document analysis it's a data analysis technique that is very useful and risks identification as risks might be identified from a structured review of the project documents such documents includes plans assumptions constraints previous project files contracts agreements and Technical documentation uncertainty or ambiguity in Project documents as well as inconsistencies within a document or between different documents may be indicators of risk on their project so you just need to provide a structured review of the existing project documents and determine the potential risks interpersonal and team skills that can be used in the risks identification process includes facilitation facilitation improves the effectiveness of many of the techniques used to identify individual project risks and sources of the overall project risk a skilled facilitator can help participants remain focused on the risk identification task follow the method associated with a technique accurately ensure a clear risk descriptions identify and overcome sources of bias and resolve any disagreements that may arise so having a skilled facilitator while conducting sessions like the brainstorming or the interviews or the meetings will increase the efficiency of those sessions prompt lists are tools used in the risk's identification process and the prompt list can be defined as a predetermined list of risk categories that might give rise to individual project risks and that could all also act as sources of overall project risks so it's a predetermined list of risk categories the prompt list can be used as a framework to Aid the project team an idea generation when using risk identification techniques the risk categories in the lowest level of the risk breakdown structure can be used as a prompt list for individual project lists so you can consider the risk breakdown structure or the lowest level of this RBS as a prompt list and revisit all the categories in the risk breakdown structure to identify individual project risks some common strategic Frameworks are more suitable for identifying sources of overall project risk for example one of the most popular ones is the pastel P refers for political category e for economic as for sociality for technological L for legal and E for environmental t-cop is another prompt list t for technical E4 environmental C4 commercial or for operational and pay for political or vuca V for volatility U for uncertainty C for complexity and A4 ambiguity these are examples of prompt lists and here is the pistol prompt list listing their key rest categories under each of these letters or main categories like looking at the environmental you have the weather the climate the policies the climate change the pressures from ngos and so on so by looking as by looking at such prompt lists you can identify additional risks for your projects the meetings are useful when it comes to risk identification the project team may conduct a specialized meeting and usually they are known as risk workshops most risk workshops include some form of brainstorming sessions but other risk identification techniques might be included also depending on the level of the risk process defined and risk management plan use of a skilled facilitator will increase the effectiveness of the meeting this is why the facilitation is an important tool of this process it's also essential to ensure that the right people are the participants of the risk Workshop on larger projects it may be appropriate to invite the project sponsor subject matter experts sellers representatives of the customer or the project stakeholders risk workshops for smaller projects may be restricted to a subset of the project team data representation tools and techniques that can might that can be used as part of the risk identification process includes the cause and effect diagram known as the Ishikawa diagram or the fishbone diagram it's similar to the root cause analysis technique but it presents and diagrammatic form that causes with the contribute to given outcome each cause can be split further into sub-causes the diagram then identifies the risks as those uncertain events which could result in occurrence of the impact to use the Ishikawa diagram for risk identification the outcome should be stated as an effect on the project objective it should impact one of the project objectives the diagram then identifies risks as those uncertain events which could result in occurrence of the impact this technique used for risk identification can lead to confusion between risks and issues keeping in mind that a risk is an uncertain cause of the impact it's something we are not sure it will happen while the issue it's a certain cause of the impact here is an example of the cause and effect diagram or the fishbone diagram sorry so the stuff is leaving is the main outcome the key causes might include environmental causes ambition career prospects remuneration or satisfaction and you can then dig deep into the sub causes like for example that's the satisfaction might include the variety the challenges and the recognition so this is an example of the fishbone diagram influence diagrams also are tools used and risks identification it can be defined as a diagrammatic representation of a project situation showing the main entities the decision points uncertainties and outcomes and indicating the relationships or the influences between them the influence diagram can identify risks when combined with sensitivity analysis or Monte Carlo simulation to reveal sources of risk within a project sensitivity analysis and Monte Carlo simulation are techniques used in the quantitative risk analysis process and we will be covering later on in this course here is an example of an influence diagram showing a situation of bidding or selecting the best bed here are the entities the decision points and the relationships or the influences between those entities System Dynamics it's similar to The Influence diagrams it's a particular application of influence diagrams which can be used to identify risks with a project or within a project situation The System Dynamics model represents entities and information flows within a project the results of the System Dynamics analysis can show the impact of risk events on overall project results such as the cost or schedule results to be expected it's an advanced risk identification technique but you should expect one question in the exam about the influence diagrams or the System Dynamics analysis of changes in the model or assumptions can indicate the system's sensitivity to specific events some of which may be risks here is an example of the System Dynamics it's similar to The Influence diagram it's used to identify risks within a specific project situation force field analysis is another technique that can be used in this process typically used in the change management context it's adapted for risk identification by identifying driving forces forces for changes and there is training forces that are forces against changes which currently affect the project objectives so you can use the force field analysis which is commonly used in the change management context in order to identify risks by identifying forces for changes and forces against changes then risks can be identified as uncertain events or conditions which would lead to change in this in the strength of one or more of the identified forces so here is an example of applying the force field analysis you can identify or determine the forces that will drive the change and the forces that will be against the change and then risks can be identified by looking as at the uncertain events which would lead to a change in the strength of one or more of these identified forces failure mood effect analysis it's also known as the fault 3 analysis can be defined as a methodology for analyzing potential reliability problems early in the development cycle as it is easier to take actions in order to overcome these issues it's used to assess the potential reliability of the product so failure mode effect analysis looks at the potential failure modes of the system or the product determine the effect on the operation of product then identify solutions to mitigate those failure modes the best time to apply the full tree analysis technique is in the earlier stage it was used by engineers in order to improve quality and reliability of the design of the product or the system here as we are focusing on project and risk management we will consider usage of this technique in identifying risk and creating the risk register once the team is done with listing all the failure modes which is the first step of applying this technique failure mode effect analysis will rate the different risks associated with each failure mood failure moods with the highest ranking are handled and documented in the risk management process as risks highest ranking here is described with their risk priority number which will be explaining later on but here is an example of applying the failure mode effect analysis for the exam you just need to understand the high level description of the failure mode effect analysis and how it's going to serve you while identifying the project risks conduct a pre-mortem it's a very simple technique it's a meeting to come up with ideas this is a pre-mortem the assembled group is then asked to imagine that the project is completed or has been terminated it has failed to meet one or more of its objectives so you will gather the team members and you will ask them to imagine that the group was a failure or it was terminated after that the group is asked to describe why the project has failed the same shall be repeated while Imagining the project as a success in order to find Opportunities so the team will imagine the project was a failure and they will start thinking about the reasons of this failure and these reasons will be the threats or the team that will be asked to imagine that the project was a great success and the possible reasons for this success might be the project opportunities Affinity diagrams are tools that is frequently used and risks identification and the trick of using this technique is to look for missing categories using Affinity diagrams so for the exam keep in mind that Affinity diagrams and checklists are commonly used as a reminders for the risk identification activities in this technique the ideas generated from any risk Gathering techniques are sorted into groups by similarities each group is then given a title this title is the similarity between those risks this sorting makes it easier to see additional risks that have not been identified so by gathering the ideas or the risks you identified area earlier into similarities categories of similarities by looking at these categories or at the affinities you can't determine any missing risks here is an example of the Affinity diagram where you categorize the risks based on change obstacles planning or implementation by looking at an affinity diagram you can determine the risks which you missed the risk breakdown structure or the RBS which we explained earlier in the RAS in the risk management plan it's a tool used in this process it's a hierarchical framework of potential responses of risk to a project an organization can develop a generic risk breakdown structure for use across all its projects or a project may use a Project Specific risk breakdown structure it contains usually levels 0 1 and 2 and so on categorizing each group of risks in the first level so here is a screenshot of the risk breakdown structure the level zero is the all sources of project risks level 1 as management risk or commercial risk and then you will go to level 2 where the individual project risks here are some major items which you should be aware of regarding the risk breakdown structure or the RBS it serves as more than just a database for identifying risks to the project it provides a vehicle for risk analysis and Reporting address comparison across the projects most importantly the risk breakdown structure is the tool for risk identification so don't deal with it only as a risk database when you sit with the team to identify risks the risk breakdown structure might be very useful categories could serve as a great reminder especially in a brainstorming session so the RBS can be used with meetings interviews or brainstorming sessions RBS is just one way to categorize risks it's not a tool or technique by itself and it should be included and as a part of the risk management plan and we explained this earlier it's a section of the risk management plan once you come up with a list of risks you will label each risk with one of those categories since that will make it easier to figure out how to deal with risks later so here are some tips of dealing with a risk breakdown structure critical path is an important tool used in risks identification and I'm covering this topic in detail as part of the focus on math section the critical path and schedule management knowledge area is defined as the longest sequence of activities in a project plan which must be completed on time for the project to complete on a new date now why it's a potential source of risk because any activity on the critical path is more risky than others since it have zero float float is the buffer each activity can have for example if activity a has a float of 7 days that means that even activity a was delayed by 6 days for example this will not impact anything in the project this is the flute all the activities located on the critical path have zero float this is why they are risky any delay of this activity will delay the project itself so as a professional project manager you should give attention for the activities that are the critical path or the activities that are not on the critical path but have a small float since any problem on these activities will easily make the activity on this on the critical path the Delphi technique is one of the most important techniques usually used in project management that the key advantage of applying this technique is that it prevents any type of bias usually it's used in the collect requirements process or as part of the risk's identification process in a brief it's a request for information usually sent to the experts who are participating in this session anonymously the responses are compiled the results are sent back to the experts for further review until they reach agreement but they will participate on Anonymous basis it's a group decision making technique and risk management it can be used to obtain consensus of expert opinion on what work should be performed and what risks exist on the project so Delphi technique is about reaching consensus from experts opinion on an anonymous basis