Lecture Notes: Factors Contributing to the Drop in Crime Rates Since the 90s

Overview

• Historical Context: 25 years ago, certain streets in San Francisco were unsafe.
• Current Situation: Crime in San Francisco and across the US has significantly decreased since the 1990s.
• Main Point: The nationwide crime rate is almost half of what it was in 1990.
• Uncertainty: No single explanation for the drop in crime; likely a combination of factors.

Factors Contributing to Crime Drop

1. Mass Incarceration

• Increased Incarceration: Jailing Americans at record rates.
• Logic: More criminals in jail should mean less crime on the streets.
• Findings by Brennan Center for Justice:
  • Slight drop in property crime attributed to incarceration.
  • No significant impact on violent crime.
  • Many nonviolent offenders jailed, little effect on violent crime.
  • Incarceration does not necessarily deter crime.
  • Example: California's prison population decreased, yet crime still went down.
• Conclusion: Mass incarceration alone doesn't explain the crime drop.

2. New Police Strategies

• Increased Funding & Officers: More police on the streets in the 90s.
• Inconsistent Evidence:
  • Example: San Diego saw crime reduction without extra police officers.
• Broken Windows Theory: Targeting low-level crimes (e.g., selling loose cigarettes, smoking weed).
  • Jury still out on its effectiveness.
• CompStat Introduction:
  • Allowed police to measure crime stats and target specific neighborhoods.
  • Likely had an effect on reducing crime.
• Conclusion: Policing played a role, but not the sole factor.

3. Economic Factors

• Employment Rates:
  • Higher employment in the 90s correlated with lower crime.
  • 2000s: Unemployment went up, slight increase in crime.
  • 2008 Recession: Did not lead to an increase in crime.
• Income Levels:
  • Per-capita income growth in the 90s correlated with crime decrease.
  • Higher average income states had lower crime rates.
  • Economic disparity could also lead to more crime.
• Conclusion: Economic factors are complex but influential.

Additional Theories

• Lifestyle & Social Factors:
  • Reduced alcohol consumption.
  • Increased access to abortion.
  • Decreased crack use.
  • Obama's presidency boosting morale in 2008.
  • Aging population.
  • Less exposure to lead.

Discussion

• Historical Comparison: In the 1960s, US incarceration rates were similar to Europe’s.
• Crime Rates: More crime isn't necessarily a given in the US compared to Europe.
• Open Question: What do you think is behind the crime drop?