Lecture Notes - International Security Studies Presentation by Seth Jones

Introduction

• Hosted by Professor Pete Monsoor from the Merchant Center for International Security Studies.
• Speaker: Seth Jones, Senior Vice President at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
• Focus: Recent book "Three Dangerous Men: Russia, China, Iran, and the Rise of Irregular Warfare."

Key Topics Covered

Importance of Irregular Warfare

• Focus on Russia, China, and Iran's use of irregular warfare.
• Increased relevance due to recent events in Russia and Ukraine.
• Exploration of motivations and strategies of these countries in global competition.

Understanding Irregular Warfare

• Defined as warfare below the threshold of conventional war.
• Includes information campaigns, state and non-state partnerships, intelligence operations, cyber operations, and economic coercion.
• Different terminology across countries, e.g., Russia's "active measures," Iran's "soft war," China's "three warfares."

Key Figures in Irregular Warfare

• Russia: Valery Gerasimov, focusing on special operations and cyber capabilities.
• China: Zheng Yuzhou, emphasizing economic means like the Belt and Road Initiative for strategic gains.
• Iran: Qasem Soleimani and successor Ismail Hani, known for proxy warfare and regional influence.

Case Studies and Examples

Russia

• Crimea's annexation as a model of irregular operations without conventional force.
• Use of private military companies like Wagner Group in global operations.
• Ongoing strategies in Ukraine, leveraging irregular units and cyber warfare.

China

• Belt and Road Initiative as a tool for economic and political influence.
• South China Sea strategy involving non-combat means for territorial expansion.

Iran

• Utilizes proxies in regional conflicts, e.g., support to Houthis against Saudi Arabia.
• Focused on exerting influence through indirect means due to weaker conventional forces.

Implications for Global Competition

• Likelihood of irregular warfare increasing between nuclear powers to avoid conventional/nuclear conflict.
• U.S. appears unprepared for irregular competition, focusing more on conventional capabilities.
• Need for improved public diplomacy and strategic coordination within the U.S.

Questions and Discussion

Potential for Cooperation Among Adversaries

• Possible strategic alliances among Russia, China, and Iran, though self-interest remains primary.

U.S. Preparedness and Strategy

• Debate over U.S.'s ability to conduct irregular warfare effectively.
• Suggestions for better utilizing existing resources and improving inter-agency collaboration.

Closing Thoughts

• Emphasis on the need for the U.S. to adapt to current global competition realities.
• Future focus on strengthening irregular warfare capabilities and inter-agency coordination.