One of my guests that has developed a strong fan following from my viewers is Mark Newton, the head of technical research for Funstrap. He uses technical analysis and cycles to study markets and stocks like Tesla and has been sharing his insights with my channel for a couple years now with many accurate predictions. At our interview earlier this year, Mark's overall sentiment for Tesla stock was short-term caution but medium to long-term bullish on Tesla. At the time, he had a strong belief in Tesla's technical setup for a major rally post June with bullish conditions potentially lasting into spring 2026. Let's see if he still feels this way. His price target for Tesla stock by the end of the year, $488. If you're a self-directed investor looking for trusted insights to grow your wealth, check out FS Insight by Fund Strat. Subscribers get access to Tom Lee and Mark Newton's daily market insights, real-time alerts, live webinars, and curated stock lists. Thank you so much, Mark. Love it when you join. Um, you know, every once in a while, but almost six months, every six months, you come in, you give your predictions. Much of your accurate uh predictions have been accurate. So, people look forward to your updates of what you're seeing uh ongoing. Welcome, Mark. Thank you, Herbert. It's great to be back with you and all your followers. Happy summer, everyone. [Music] Yeah. So, yeah. Well, let's start with that. like you were saying that June is when you thought you were suggesting back then it was February last time we did the show was February said by June you see it turning positive and there might be choppiness in November but it'll be positive in December. So what's your Tesla stock outlook and what has happened and what do you see coming forward? Well, it's been a gradual recovery and I think that is bullish because the news continues to be very negative by the mainstream media and every little time they can highlight something that's negative seems like they do which is unfortunate because very few of the analysts are taking time to study what some of you and your colleagues have been discussing and do discuss every day with regards to just self- autonomous driving FSD and just the robo taxi rollouts and you know their continued push into AI and and batteries and and just all the the good things that are going to happen coming down the pike. Um, you know, we obviously had a very severe correction into uh April of this year. Tesla did bottom along with the market on April the 7th. Uh we had a very sharp rally of about a little over 70% honestly that happened within a couple months uh of that bottom. And since then it's been in what we like to call as technicians a uh you know a triangle pattern a technical trading range which after such a move normally does get resolved by a push higher in a breakout and I think that is forthcoming. I think that we're uh in route to seeing that uh which could be literally uh any day now. We've rallied about four out of the last five days uh this week has been very encouraging. we actually touched the top of this uh so-called trading range. And so uh you know I'm I'm very positive that this is uh that this move has started for Tesla. Uh and really uh you know a breakout in in the next week would be very good towards helping the stock achieve a little bit more momentum and see some volume pick up on this rally. Uh but ultimately I do see it getting back to uh to all-time highs and and you know that level uh that it hit was 488. I think that's a logical first place for it to uh to stop you know on a big move. Do so you're still maintaining after you you said this in February but now you're saying okay you still believe that the second half of this year will be positive and that maybe even hit all-time highs for Tesla in this case 488 by the end of this year. you're still going to make that forecast. I I do I mean that those were levels that were reached last December and so I think it would make a lot of sense. Uh the back half of the year for Tesla historically has been a lot stronger than uh you know the early part of the year. We normally do see some corrective uh pullbacks that's happened over the last dozen years uh many times during the spring months and then the back half is quite uh bullish. And so I say that for a couple reasons. one is that momentum is starting to turn a little bit more positive on a number of different metrics uh whether it be you know MACD that a lot of technical analysts use uh also my personal cycles which I use are also quite uh bullish and I'm happy to show that uh during this presentation and we'll talk about the fact that it was earlier in the year it was very negative and the last time I was on it did point to the possibility of a of a of a pullback and I think I thought it would get to the low 300s and obviously we undercut that by a small amount and got down to around 270 but but uh you know since then it's been very rangebound and now uh even with some some negative news. We see, you know, the media tends to be very negative on it, but yet most of the institutional analysts have gotten a lot more positive and they're realizing that it's just a matter of time before they become to before they start to realize uh some people uh characterize it to me saying that what has happened in the last six months of where we're at today is that there seems to be a bottom that a floor has been created. So even with all these negative news, it's like you know we've weathered it, it's going to not go down beyond that. So even though positive news doesn't make the stock jump, at least there's a floor. Do do you agree? Do you think something is that's true? I do agree. I I think it's very unlikely that we would see Tesla back uh under the lows that were made this spring. Uh I think that's that's highly unlikely. I think at the time it hit uh right near 214 or so back in the early part of April. And so, you know, the real key in the near term, uh, if Tesla starts to turn down, uh, like the market could in the next month, there is a possibility, of course, as we enter the fall, uh, it is a seasonally weak time for stocks. Um, the S&P itself has been obeying this sort of seasonal pattern quite closely for the majority of this year. Then potentially the back half of April of August could very well bring about a pullback. So the most important spot in the near term for those that are looking at support would be u you know the area right near 298 that was hit really at the beginning of this month and so that's going to be important to hold. We can we can go through that as I'm let's do that because I saw one of your charts I really interested in is it's the famous chart I think which is the triangle right it's been building up Tesla's stock is building up and at some point it can break out. I'd love to walk you through and then maybe you can uh overlay it with your commentary of what are you seeing with in terms of the milestones that Tesla has hit. They launched robo taxi. They've expanded robo taxi to now California. You know these things are seem to be in line with what we expected and if not if anything it's actually faster than people thinking but in the other side they think that's nothing yet because it's still not yet real robo taxi. Uh yeah I agree with that. Let me see if I can uh you know this is the chart that I think most people uh are are used to seeing which uh you know is a giant triangle pattern which started back in the latter part of May. So Tesla has been operating with uh really under you know the initial selloff from December into uh you know early March um about 83 days you know is an important time metric going forward and it has coincided with some turning points as you look at ratios of that that actually happened right at the end of May and then it actually signaled a bottom that happened in the early part of August. Uh the most important part for this chart is really the area honestly right near today's highs and it lies near the upper edge of this triangle. Uh I like to use July 21st peaks which is 338 just structurally speaking and so a move above that on a closing basis would serve to officially break this triangle. And I think it, you know, I'm hopeful that a breakout would happen on heavy volume, uh, similar to what we saw maybe in the middle part of July where it can trade 140, 150 million shares on a breakout. Um, and so if that happens, then that should drive it up towards the highs of this triangle near 367, but but honestly, the target would be up, you know, near 423 to 426 area initially. uh with an ultimate target that should happen right near uh you know last December's highs. When I say ultimately, I mean profit for this year. What is the last 488? And so that was the peak that was achieved back on last December. That was that. Can you tell me a little bit more about this triangle, right? So you're watching this move. So normally the fact that we've had, you know, nine months or so, 488 last December. So normally these triangle patterns uh normally are resolved by a move um out of it that that replicates the direction where the stock went going into the triangle. In this case it moved from April, you know, at levels right near 214 up to near 367 or about 70% very quickly and then it's been going sideways for two months. But you note the triangles get tighter and tighter as a stock moves towards the apex. And then you know my thinking is that it is in the process now of uh you know beginning this process of breaking it out. And so we really need to see a move above those peaks from late July which is you know 338 and that should help to drive it up. And you know, if one wishes to project, you could measure the move from April to May and say that from early June, if you project up, that gets you right up near the the low 400s, 425 or so. So that would be, you know, probably a very good target uh initially. But um you know the key is Tesla's has really withstood a lot of pressure and it's been going sideways at a time when the S&P 500 has been pushing higher. Of course we moved higher by about you know over 30% or so within the last 17 weeks. So, it's been a remarkable rally and but now this is starting to show evidence that it could start to resolve higher. And we note other stocks like Apple that are also part of the the so-called MAG 7 also have moved sideways up until this week's breakout. So, I view this as having an above average chance of of working uh in the back half of the year and that also dovtales with some cycles that I watched. Okay. Okay. So, you said that there's an above average chance that it's going to uh break through and then but then you said, okay, it could get to all-time highs 488, but that 48 you said is the end of this year. So, when it does, if it does break through, are you saying this week, next week, a couple weeks from now? What when do you think it will? And then what will happen then? Well, my thinking is the majority of the strongest part of its rally should happen between October and December of this year, which lines up with the fourth quarter. And that should be a very strong time for uh Tesla. Uh if you look at the cycle, so this is a pattern that's been pretty common for Tesla that I created going back on its history. And it does show the stock honestly bottoming right around it started showed the stock bottoming actually into uh the June July period and there we have a rally that moves up into September a minor pullback and then from October into the year end I think is when we're going to get the majority of its sharp gains. Gotcha. Okay. Good. Good. All right. Then so I was asking you earlier that uh you know the milestones I know that you're doing technical analysis but in terms of the milestones you're expecting to happen with Tesla the robo taxi did roll out these things are happening does that play into at all into your analysis whether or not uh first of all of course the economy does right you you guys always do a good job of forecasting what's going to happen with risk on or risk off but what about Tesla's you know whether or not they're actually hitting the expected milestones well look I think it you know most of the traditional analysts uh are all waiting until we see credible evidence that that this starts to affect their their earnings and and uh and that's really the key I think as to when the stock would start to accelerate is we want to get more real proof. We know that all these things are in the pipeline, but we honestly need to see you know we want to see some evidence that uh you know the things are really starting to uh to gain traction. And so with all these bullish things in in the pipeline, you know, you certainly have to talk about them and most people are wise to to use those and their forecast. But at the same time, you know, the stock is is it doesn't always correlate with with the fundamentals first and foremost. I mean that's exactly why we use technical analysis and use cycles because uh there's a lot that's bullish but yet you know the earnings aren't don't reflect that and that's why the stock is rangebound. So when that changes then then certainly technicals will start to line up with fundamentals and and that's when uh you know the move should really start to gain traction. What about sentiment? Uh can you speak a little bit to what you think has happened to the summit? So I think you what I've heard you say so far is despite all the negative sentiment that's happened stock has stayed at ragebound and that could be the floor and then that sets it up to to break through. Is that right? I I think that's right. I think it's very difficult for me to have a a proper understanding of what sentiment is because uh the majority of what we hear from the analysts uh has been bullish and the majority of what we hear from the media has been negative. And so to truly understand if you know what's happening across the globe is that people are still uh deciding to go a different route versus buying a Tesla is not something I have a lot of info on. I think that the most majority of the the news networks I heard a report on Bloomberg earlier this week that said that you know BYD was making huge inroads and you know and I look at the data for I saw stats on South Korea and Tesla was overwhelmingly beating BYD in in every major category you know so I I just the media certainly has a big hand in controlling public uh sentiment and I think now that Tesla has become less of a political stock that's certainly uh you know a good thing with regards to just concentrating on their core business and the pay package has been approved and I think that is uh you know something that you know should allow uh the company to to really focus on its its goals but you know that that's not honestly my my strong point. It's tough for me. I have my own personal take on on on Tesla's sentiment, but uh I along with you and many are very biased as being positive and uh you know it's if you can convince those that that watch the news every day that uh you know that that Tesla's making real strides, I think we have to see proof of that. Yeah. All right. And so you talked about you think it might hit you know you explained it really well October November shoots up to 488. What happens in 2026? Are you able to give us a forecast for that? I think the first part of the year is going to be negative in 2026 not unlike what happened from February into April of this year in in the US. Uh I think that uh you know if markets end up near their highs for the year which I do anticipate uh S&P between 6650 and 7,000 we would have seen you know two plus years of 20% gains and now a third year back to back to back where we're up between 15 and 20%. And I guess the issue that uh you know that that I have is uh you know we're starting to increasingly see some evidence of some bifurcation within technology and various software stocks starting to roll over a bit and you know some of the defensive groups are gaining traction. I think people are getting more optimistic on the stock market rally and that's been notably absent. It was in at least May, June, July and that now that's starting to pick up steam. So if sentiment starts to get very bullish and we're starting to see breath deterioration then I think that at least in the first part of the year that would open up the chance for uh you know for a cyclical uh pullback correction pullback but as we know look Tesla's been Tesla's been through the ringer for for you know and it's been rangebound obviously for some time and so the larger pattern is is still quite constructive you know going back since 2021 and and you know I A break out of the triangle is the first part of the process. I I you know think it probably is starting but but we want to see a move over 338. Momentum has been improving. We want to see that continue uh you know technically a triangle pattern doesn't give you a whole lot of conviction until we we see the breakout. We see breakthrough big volume flow back into the stock. I mean those are classic technical type signs that that we can start to enjoy that kind of acceleration that we know tesla is is capable of has done. So last time we spoke a over a year ago you said that once it breaks through and gets to its all-time high if it breaks through the all-time high Tesla is the kind of stock that's going to go to like 700s or something like that. Do you still I do believe that I 100% and I say specifically alltime highs. I mean, it did actually make an all-time high uh you know, into last December and then it promptly failed. But but uh so now if it's were to happen again, it actually has more credence because it's already been tested once and you basically have a giant base and and so my thinking is that that is going to happen. U the question is does it happen between October and December of this year? that that's not for, you know, very very difficult to put a uh that kind of a timetable and say it's going to go above 600 and this and that. But I I I can certainly say with a lot of confidence that my cycles uh show a very positive bias for the back half of the year and that it does appear to now be starting to show more momentum and I think that a breakout is going to be imminent and that's going to to help to lift the stock. So you guys uh Tom Lee and you uh Funstrat, you guys have an ETF called Granny Shots and Tesla's one of your top holdings. Correct. That's right. What's your role in that and why did you That is correct. Yeah, Tesla does remain at Granny Shot. So for those that are uh are unfamiliar with Fundstrat or uh you know or my the head of research of course Tom Lee uh created you know an ETF the ticker is GRNY and and that allows one to be able to participate in in owning the stocks that are part of this granny list. So the the methodology is something you know based on a bunch of different thematic uh you know buckets of of you know largely it it can be large cap growth and in focus but uh it's had a a consistent track record of beating the S&P and it's up to about $2.2 billion in about eight months. So it's had a very uh uh fast period of growth thus far and and it's fortunately it's done very well. What's your thesis on on on Tesla and your uh expertise in and technical? Does that play into this at all or is it just that's a fundamental reasons why you chose it to be part of the ETF is fundamentals? Yeah, I I don't control the day-to-day uh portfolio management process of of this ETF. Uh that's done by Ken Schwan and and Tom. And so I I uh weigh in on, you know, some of my favorites and and least favorites every month on our conference calls and we talk about, you know, some of the stocks that that show real promise and the ones that are lagging. But but uh um you know, in terms of uh an ETF that I would have any say on that that hopefully will come down the pike in in in a couple years, that would be great. So there's 30, right? Is there 30 30 stocks in the ETF or is there more? Oh, I think it can be as many. I I think right now that's that's about right. Yeah, that's correct. And then do you know where Tesla stands right now? Is it their number one holding or is it somewhere in the middle? We don't know. Uh I do not think it's in the top 10 right now, but it is still a granny shot. I mean and and and honestly uh you know technically it's been rangebound. So it's been you know if I were to say this is the way to run an ETF I I would say that's probably right. I mean most of the names that are the top holdings are ones that are showing a little bit better relative strength and uh it's going to take some time but I think Tesla will get there. Gotcha. Tom Lee is very bullish on on on the company and and very likes the stock and so there's a reason why he included it as part of the the list. Yeah. So tell me about the Mag 7. and what's going on with that and AI in general. Is the AI story being told? Is Tesla being now seen as an AI play? I think the institutional analysts would agree that that Tesla certainly is an AI play and it is very undervalued in that regard. I would say uh that the world as a whole probably does not yet see Tesla as an AI play. That's not my perception that it's very well known uh yet there. Um, Mag 7 has done, you know, phenomenally well. Uh, and Tesla has has been a lagard in that regard, obviously, and I think that likely will change as Tesla breaks out and can start to play catch-up a little bit. Um, you know, stocks like Meta, of course, and Microsoft have done phenomenally well. Others, uh, you know, of late, like, uh, Netflix and Amazon have lagged a bit, and now they're starting to stabilize and turn up. But it it's been one of the the you know certainly the biggest source of earnings growth within uh the market. And so people complain about the uh you know the composition of this rally and say well it's only 10 stocks that have made 80% of the gains and uh you know that that is true but you also have to realize that those are the stocks that are making some of the greatest gains and earnings as well and so uh you know these are companies which have changed all our lives for the better. That's honestly a good thing that shouldn't be seen as a sign of a bubble. So I'm optimistic on on technology. I think we're in a secular wave of AI that's going to continue for a number of years and you're very bullish on that then you know it's difficult to try to claim that okay and then Tesla is a growth company it's a story stock still waiting for the earnings to appear second half of next year longer with robo taxi and bots um so it's very sensitive to the economy what's your forecast for that are you able to share that I know sometimes you you got to wait until certain when you release the info but uh We're all always baited breath waiting for what Funstrat thinks is happening because you guys are pretty good. Yeah, honestly, well, I I can't share Tom Lee's forecast obviously uh you know, we come up with our year-end forecast as of the end of this year and once that's once that's uh set in stone, then certainly happy to share that with you. Uh both Tom and I have targets, you know, up above 6,600 for the S&P. So, we're both positive for this year. I heard Tom say that it's alltime high practically. I'm S&P will hit all-time high this month, right? Yeah, that's right. I I I mean, look, we're almost there. So, it's been a it's been a very quick recovery as of now. So, both of us have looked at the world from different lenses and have come up with the same conclusion. So, that's always refreshing. Optimism. I think practically, you know, you know, we have to expect that we probably do get some type of a backing and filling in the market in in maybe late August, September and uh that will be a buying opportunity that I think most of us will will uh will will look to take advantage of. Okay. So, does it is it fair to say again I'm just we don't know, right? This is not financial advice. We're I'm guessing what might be happening. But things are setting up well. What you're going to see is there's there's going to be like you warning us that in uh August, September it might go down, but in October, November, December could go back up. Tesla might hit 488. But if the economy is also behaving, no world wars, no um you know force major events, um it's looking like it's lining up. And then MAG 7 sentiment is high still. Does it all look like it's going to AI optimism all that second of this year? Yeah, I think it's right to say that most that were worried about the tariffs uh you know have missed out on a lot of this rally. It really has not materialized like what people have thought. And so the economy has proven to be uh a lot stronger, a lot more resilient. um you know and and now we're seeing just some minor evidence of of labor market uh slowdown. It is right to say that that you know things are are moderating but that doesn't always mean that they're uh you know that that we're going into a recession uh certainly and so the forces of AI themselves tend to be very deflationary that would I think offset any inflationary effects of tariffs and u you know I I I am pretty optimistic we have about four cuts now baked into the curve between now and next July for the Fed. And I think that we're an environment where the economy has been pretty resilient. Um earnings have been actually better than expected this past quarter and over 83% of companies have beaten uh what arguably has been a pretty low bar for earnings and most analysts were you know obviously lowered uh many of their forecasts and these companies continue to be able to beat and so I I I think the combination of uh good earning strength, good economy as well as just a nice technical rebound found that it's caused a little momentum and and technology uh has been very bullish for the market and uh you know we'll see what next year brings. I'm I think this is a year for risk-taking. I think the majority of the market is is in excellent shape and u I think treasury yields are going down. The dollar is falling. um you know, yields going down plays into the administration's goal of uh you know, trying to refinance 10 trillion of that 37 trillion dollar deficit and that that's how that's possible with yields uh you know pulling back and so you know there's a lot of reasons for optimism and and I I share those. I think that it's it's wise to always put on the blinders and ignore geopolitical events or anything exogenous. You know, you have to follow technical analysis. You have to follow what price trends are are telling you. And and you know, for Tesla, we got a great move last year, of course, and this year was early on was a little bit of a disappointment, but it's now it's been choppy. And now the triangle pattern, you know, close to giving way to a nice upside breakout. That's upside down. That's exactly right. Now Tesla actually hit the highs of the that triangle. Yeah. So, so it's all it's all very good news for a stock that honestly has been under pressure and has been you know source of consolidation for for honestly you know the last three years really I mean and so once we can start to achieve that kind of uh that that technical uh progress and and I I think slowly but surely we're going to start to see uh Tesla join the leaders of the mag 7 and uh you know will be recognized as such. Good. Thank you for that. So yeah, we're close to breakout. We'll see what happens in the next few quarter a few weeks, but more importantly, we'll wait till the end of this year. There will be dos. It could contest the lows again, but there's a floor and then maybe by the end of this year, we'll get back up to the all-time highs. Um, thank you so much, Mark. I appreciate it. Always uh waiting to hear what you're thinking about Tesla specifically. You've called it right uh several times now, so we're looking to that. So people should follow you, right? go to your website, but also I've got your QR code here. Do you want to kind of share what this is? Yep, that's your QR code, Mark. So, people click that. What will they get to your subscribers? Right. So, that will enable people to sign up for a uh a free trial of of our work at at Funstrat and uh and FS Insight. So this enables people to get my work along with my videos uh those of Tom Lee along with our digital currency you know our crypto team uh as well as our policy team at Tom Block. So so look forward to look speaking with you again once we can resolve this triangle pattern and and we'll have a little bit more conviction that the stock has started to move up right away and I think that's for perfect. Thank you so much. Uh uh follow Mark at his exhandle at marknewtonc. Check out the website funstrat.com and then yeah click on this to get yourself a free subscription to their uh newsletter. Thanks Mark. We'll see you again soon. Thanks everybody. Bye-bye. Thank you Herbert. That sounds great. Bye-bye. I've created a website that is the most comprehensive resource for the Tesla investor. Please check it out. Simply go to my website at herbert.com. [Music]