in this video I'm going to show you a way of trading without the use of any technical indicators and the particular strategy which I'm going to show you identifies reversal points in euro dollar and can achieve a win rate or of an accuracy of almost 90% so if you've almost given up trying to use indicators to get some sort of consistency in your trading then this video could be of interest to you I'm going to show you a back test report for the strategy which runs back to January 2010 so at the time of filming that's almost 14 and 1 half years of data so it's been working for quite some time now and since discovering the strategy a few years ago I've also been using a variation of it in my own trading the strategy uses a few simple rules for the entries and the exits now the idea of me showing you this video or showing you this strategy is to just to demonstrate that you don't have to over complicate things in order to find an edge or a longterm Edge in any particular Market I've prepared a quick slideshow which we're going to look at in a minute which EXP explains exactly how to get in and out of the trades then we'll have a look at the performance report now I've split the back test and the performance report into two sections the bulk of it is going to go from January 2010 through to January 2022 so we've got that first 12 years and then I've left the last two and a half years as the most recent data because I think that's where you're going to be most interested in the recent performance so from 2022 through to the present day which is in June 2024 that's the second set of data which we're going to look at so let's go and have a look at that slideshow and show you exactly how things work the strategy works on the daily chart of euro dollar let's look at the long trade entries first so the number one rule we must be flat we must have no open trades so if we're already short we're going to wait for our trade exit from our short position before we can actually go long okay so we need to be flat we look at that on the charts number two wait for a red candle so why we see a red candle and the close of that red bar is less than yesterday's low that's our next setup and then number three once we see that set up we enter a buy stop order at the high of that red candle and it's only valid for one day that means if for the next session if the high is broken then we get into the trade if the high of that red candle isn't broken within that session then we cancel the order and we look for a new trade alog together looking at the short it's pretty much the opposite as you might expect number one again we must be flat no open trades and we're waiting for a green candle now and the close has to be higher than yesterday's high when we see that we want a sell Short Stop order at the low of that green candle and again it's only valid for that next candle that next bar or that next session okay if we're not in a trade within that next session we cancel the order trade exits uh basically we exiting at the end of the session if we're in profit this is our good old bailout exit I like to use 1645 to 1655 Eastern Standard Time so between 5 and 15 minutes before the end of the session check whether we're in profit and this may be within the same day that we've entered the trade if we're in profit then we're going to exit if we're not in profit we leave the trade running and the other exit is a stop loss of 250 Pips so we're only going to get out of trade one of two ways we're going to exit into profit or we're going to hit our stop loss very very simple looking at some long trade examples here looking at the first example so this first bar here we can see that we've got a red bar and the close is less than yesterday's low so what we would have done we would have put a stop order to buy at the high of this bar here and you can see the next bar that high wasn't BR so we didn't get into a trade but this was another setup so we would have put the stop order at the high of this bar but we can see again the high wasn't broken so we canceled the order but we got another setup and finally the day after we saw this we did get an entry here I don't know if you can see that whereabouts my arrow is that's where the trade entered as we broke the high of this red bar and then the close of this bar was slightly less so we weren't in profit but the next day we saw that the close was up here into profit and we exited the trade similar sort of scenario here it wasn't until we got here that the high of the the previous Red Bar was actually broken and we got in the trade here and then again after that next session we took some profit similar scenario here and again one day later we took some profit again here we got another long example and here we got some short examples so green bar here the close was higher than yesterday's high so we would have put a sell short order at the low of this bar and obviously that wasn't broken but we got another setup so we put a sell Short Stop order at the low of this green bar which was broken the day after and then one day later around about the close we were in profit so we exited the trade for some profit and another the trade here this one took us 1 2 3 4 5 days until we actually saw some profit and then we exited the trade in the report I've actually included some trading costs I've actually included $40 worth of costs and we're trading 100,000 units or one full lot so $40 of cost that's equivalent to four Pips worth of costs so let's have a look at the back test data for that first and largest chunk of data from 2010 through to 2022 here in multi charts you can see that we've got two separate charts and they're just different date ranges so the first date range is the 2010 through to 2022 and if I just enlarge that we can see some of the Trad which have been taken on the chart is the last five trades so let's look at the performance report net profit we can see it's making 24,000 600 over that 12E period that's what the equity curve looks like it's had some really good periods some fairly flattish periods and then some slightly better periods but overall definitely moving in the right direction it's taken 212 trades with a win rate of 88% average trade of $116 as after costs and that's equivalent to 11.6 Pips see our largest losing trade there 2 and a half th000 or just over 2 and a half th000 our stop loss is actually $25,000 that's our 250 pip stop loss plus the 40 which is our four Pips of trading costs so that's our largest losing trade so it's nice to see that there is some consistency and we are definitely moving in the right direction over that first 12year period for such a simple trading strategy the performance over that 12E period is okay isn't it the good news is though for the next set of data which is the most recent data the performance has got even better I'll show you that in just a moment but firstly I want to offer you a PDF guide book which I've created in the guide book I call it the 22 page beat the Marcus strategy guide book in there I outline in detail three more trading strategies which are rule based a little bit like the one which we're looking at today if you're interested in that I'll leave the links down below because at the moment you can get that absolutely free and for those of you who are looking for even more strategies I've included another six strategies in my popular trading course and interestingly in the course I actually include a strategy which is a little bit similar to one we're looking at today however in this time I've included like a clever trade filter which improves the performance even more so if you're interested in that I'll also leave the links down below of course it's not just strategies in the course there's also a ton more information it's all about how to make consistent profits using rule-based trading now let's go and have a look at the up-to-date or the most recent performance for this strategy we've already seen the earlier performance report for this early day dat but let's look at this one which is got data from 2022 through to the 21st of June 2024 not quite the 21st actually it's the 14th of June 2024 net profit $10,700 there's the equity curve and that's been performing quite nicely hasn't it over the last two and a half years see the close to close we can see that the Green Dot show us that we are making new highs right up into this day or the most recent bit of data taking 49 trades percent profitable is up in this period to 93 almost 94% uh average trade is a lot larger actually as well is 21 Pips and largest losing trade is still the same which is our stop loss in fact what I'll do now is I'll just include the whole data set so we can see it as one big picture so I'm going to go from January 2010 through to June 2024 and looking at the overall performance obviously we've got the trades combined got our 89% profitable $135 for the average trade but let's look at the equity curve and we can see that sure enough we're in a good period here bit like the early period then it went flat and then like I said this most recent period has been performing particularly well looking at the annual period analysis we can see that over those 14 years we've only got two losing years and we can see 2010 was a very strong year but then as we can see on the chart 2022 was a good year 23 was pretty good and so far 2024 it has been performing quite well in fact this year alone we've only got seven trades but every one of those has been profitable a common observation or sometimes even complaint I get from normally newer traders to a strategy like we're looking at is that it only trades about 20 times a year and I totally get that I totally get that most Traders want to be placing trades more than once every two or 3 weeks so what's the answer because you can't force more signals from any one single strategy and the truth is you're going to be very hard pushed to find one strategy with a win rate of nearly 90% which trades two or three times a day and is profitable after trading costs those sort of strategies might exist but I haven't found them yet not a strictly rule-based one anyway so what's the answer instead do what I do trade more than one strategy I trade a whole collection or portfolio of strategies let's say you trade five strategies which trade 20 times a year suddenly that's 100 trades a year trade 10 strategies that's 200 trades a year this is how we build up our trading without focusing just on the one strategy have a look at some of my older videos for some more strategy ideas especially if you like these strategies with higher win rates you should be able to build up a collection or a portfolio of strategies too so anyway I hope that helps I know it's a shorten sweet video today and I know I haven't been uploading recently I have been really busy mainly working on my own strategy development and unfortunately I find making the videos in between working on these developments I just find the videos a little bit distracting so it's been really nice just to focus solely on strategy development so I hope you understand but thanks for staying until the end of the video and I hope to see you on the next one but until then this is Jared Goodwin and thank you