If you're asking me, and I suppose you are being on the channel, I don't think this looks like a cycle top. However, there are signs to suggest that the market needs time to slow down. But we're looking at the big picture here. And I want to explain why in this video why this doesn't look like a cycle top for BTC. Looking across the S&P 500. So, using this information right here, also the US dollar also is continuing to break down. So, showing lower and lower prices and then we're going to layer this with our analysis for the rest of the markets. Now, I've also got all coins to go through in today's video with Ethereum having a relatively good day in the last 24 hours, plus the total crypto market caps. So, grab your coffees. Let's dive into today's video. After you hit that like button, subscribe to the channel if you're new. It's your home of macrocycle analysis. And for anything that I'm using in the video, you can find the links in the video description. First, I want to start out with the crypto sentiment and the crypto data. Just looking at the exchange volume, uh, and then running this along the theory and the the headline of today's video, looking at why I don't think this is a cycle top. The 7-day moving average exchange volume has been climbing recently, but of course, just in the last few days, has also begun to put in a pullback. Now, we haven't seen this sort of exchange volume data come through at any of the previous cycle peaks. You can go back to April of 2021. You've also got May. Obviously, the volume picked up more because the market began to crash and people are obviously trading a lot more. And then you can see these peaks in October and November of 2021, which were also new all-time highs at that point in time. And then you can fast forward through to March 2024, new all-time highs. You've also got the most recent all-time highs in November, December, and January, of course. So, pretty significant market market volume there. And then even all the way back to 2017. Now, of course, this one is lower than where we currently are, but you just got to compare that to the times. And the times were much, much quieter then. Obviously, a lot less people trading in the market. and $20 billion average volume for the 7 days was considered extremely high as you can see for 2017 into um the early part of 2018. So that's the first piece there just from a broader perspective. It doesn't look like we're at those stages yet. doesn't mean that we haven't just fizzled out at another barely new all-time high before the market corrects, but just looking at the probabilities, it seems like we have a little further to go before we get all of that extreme interest into the market. Now, this could be winding up similar to what happened around the ETF news back that's Bitcoin ETF launch news back in 2024, January of 2024. You can see the volume did break out of some of the the downtrends, but then had another pull back into a higher low. Overall, it was still contained within the previous uh volume before it broke out into that first big peak of March 2024. So, we could be in something similar to that whereby you're just at the beginning or in the middle of a significant move and there is still further to go, but you're not in the early stages. So somewhere caught in the middle. Now the other thing is the liquidation data. We're at 83 million for the day. Typically around these highs, you would see a lot of longs getting liquidated. So you can see these green bars. These are all the longs getting liquidated. And they happen in pretty large sections. For example, you can see December, this was the all-time high that we had, December 2024. Coincidentally, that day at $108,000 came out on the exact same day, 7 years prior when Bitcoin hit $20,000. So, the exact same day. Anyway, you've got very significant longs getting liquidated here. So, you got three days. Uh there's also very significant longs getting liquidated. 1.5 billion dollar. And then as far back as the data goes, 5th of December, that was another very significant day as well. So just within the space of about 2 and 1/2 weeks, you had about half of the days above average volume getting liquidated. And then fast forward another month. So this is through to early part of January, mid January, more mid January, January 20ths and the 27th, obviously the inauguration was here. And then early part of February when Trump started tweeting, there was a lot of longs getting liquidated. Yet the price, so the Bitcoin price was not going much higher. That's this gold line in the background. So, apologies about this big box on the side here. Can't get rid of that. But you get the idea. You can see roughly around uh the average volume there. A lot of days getting liquidated, yet the price wasn't going any higher. So, that's an important one to note considering where we are now. The price has gone a little higher. At the moment, we've got a couple of days higher. If this was to pick up, meaning you'd have increased exchange volume again to then create extra longs getting liquidated and the price not really going anywhere, then that in my opinion is a big cause for concern. Push higher, but just keep getting slammed back down. Showing here with the longs getting liquidated yet the price not going much higher and we haven't got that yet. Now the other thing is the search volume for Bitcoin and crypto. This is on a 12 month basis worldwide. It has continued to drop off. Generally you see these search volume terms really pick up steam as a you get to a breakout like we did here. This was November basically around the election time in the US and then peak out start to drop off and the price still went higher. We know it went higher in December. So that was these points right here and then again in January when Trump got inaugurated. So through here, but you're still seeing um elevated search volume for Bitcoin in particular, but it's it's beginning to put in lower highs. So there's less and less interest coming in. And at the moment, we're still putting in lower highs. And the market is basically just trading around similar prices to what it has done for the last well when you look at the high prices for the last few months up around $1 to $110,000. As for crypto, it's still pretty much bit of a dead no man's land at the moment. We dropped down to a shorter term time frame. You can see a little bit of a pickup over the last couple of days, which is a good sign for the shortterm trends to begin if they do begin turning into longerterm trends where we might see further and further upside for the search volume. But as we as it stands, well, we're still in this trading range and it looks like the market is trying to consolidate at these prices. As for the four-year cycle that we are tracking here, we're looking at lows to lows, splitting that down the middle, and the low to the low is roughly 4 years that we're using to give us an idea of a right or a left translated cycle. We are very much in a right translated cycle. And you might recall this if you've been following on the channel for at least I'd say 12 to 15 months. We were talking about this back in March, February and March of 2024 when the majority of the market thought we were going to get a left translated cycle. Basically topping out in this first half of the four-year cycle. So there was a lot of uh well the narrative was very high that we're going to see a left translated cycle and this was going to be all over. And at least here on the channel, we didn't think that was the case based on longerterm cycles like we've been seeing with the S&P 500 and the real estate cycle, which I'll look at in just a sec. But here we are in the what I'm calling the final boss, the grand final stage. Basically, final boss to me from my experience going through this cycle and this cycle and other uh markets when you get to the highs into this later stage of the cycle. So, we're definitely not early. This market has been going on for, well, at least bull market has been going on for two and a half years. It is the most difficult. So, don't beat yourself up if you're finding it challenging at this stage of the cycle. The easiest times, which is the opposite to what the crowd thinks, what the herd, what retail thinks, the easiest times are the bottoms. I think the hardest times are the tops. That's because there is so much more uh emotion and that leads to volatility and that leads to which volatility is basically the wild swings up and down. Everyone trying to call the end of a move, you know, is this over? Is it not? So this uncertainty around emotions and leading to the volatility. It's generally around people not having a plan with what they're going to do with their money. Should the market break down or if it continues higher and they haven't positioned themselves. Now, if you're just new to the game, check out TIA Crypto. The free reports coming out today. There's a lot here on Bitcoin and how you've got some of the retail accounts talking about top being in and then showing you this sort of fractal. And we also dive deeper into Bitcoin today, altcoins, you got ETH here, and then also the real estate cycle. So, I'll leave it on here cuz we'll get to the real estate cycle. Bring it from the long-term down to the short term. And looking at the fear and greed index, we've just been hovering around greed. So the idea here is that the market has had its move higher and essentially continues to reset. So that's a good thing for the bull market. I don't see anything overheating like we did back in November, December, and then the drop off in market sentiment as it tried to push higher with Trump being inaugurated. That was a very big telltale sign that things were basically drying up. The sentiment died off. Price tried to go higher and it was a fail. So, it was basically a news failure. And you guys know, we look at this signal right here. There was three bars down. Forget the green. Lower highs, lower lows. And that said the market was getting tired. And we haven't seen one of those signals yet either. We got very close to one right around the top. There was one day down uh inside and then another day down. So lower lows, but then this day saved it and we had another higher day. So it doesn't look like the market is getting too tired of this move yet for a longerterm pullback like we saw from December into April or if you want to call it January into April. Either way, it's still a long long pullback. So I think we still got a bit more time here and that's what the sentiment is showing. Now, I've also got the FOMO Finder, and if you follow Michael's channel, which I'll leave a link to in the video description as well, you can just go down and find Michael's channel right there. Now, for our analysis, we're comparing the FOMO Finder data. Looking at the FOMO, greed, you got canary call, balance, uncertainty, panic, and capitulation, and checking out how that relates to the traditional Bitcoin or crypto fear and greed index. Overall, this one here doesn't spike into capitulation or FOMO as often as the traditional reading, but when you see it occur at the same time, that's usually a stronger signal that you're coming towards some sort of extreme market sentiment, whether it's extreme to the upside or if it's extreme to the downside. So, we did see a lot of extreme fear and then this drop back into panic for quite a few days. Now, with these readings, nothing is really standing out to say that this has to be a new well, a cycle top and the all-time high is in and that you're going to see some sort of mega collapse like what retail crypto is posting over on Twitter or on YouTube or anything like that. Like, it doesn't seem like this is the case just yet. Of course, can always be wrong. I've got to throw that in. But for my opinion and how I'm trading the market, I don't see this happening yet. We still got a little while to go. And for the short term, we're still holding above key support levels. 93,000. The previous lows there at about 100 101,000. But for a shorterterm perspective, we're we're still failed. At the moment, as I'm filming this, we're starting to climb the 106500 level. That was a previous lower swing top. It was a previous higher swing low before it failed. So, that's an important point there for the short term. 106500. Now the other thing that's going on is this stable coins. They have continued to fall very slowly and still remain in that trading range between 4.8 and about 4.4%. You guys will know that this line right here is the alltime support line. We take it back all the way to 2017. And essentially, it's been there to show each of Bitcoin's tops, like significant highs and had been all-time highs, like the case of April right here in 2021. And then also all-time highs. So, we've got significant highs. These were all-time highs at the time, March 24, December and January, uh, 24 and 25. And then, of course, just now as well, we got a new all-time high in May. Yet, it's at a higher low for the USDT dominance, which means there's even less money circulating in the space, which of course has meant that altcoins have been annihilated or just have not gone up as much. Now, there are exceptions and I'll get to those in just a moment, but essentially this is still in that that tricky trading range. Still no breakdown yet for the bulls. Still no breakout for the crypto bears to get on their shorts. Now, crypto and Bitcoin don't move on their own. If you're not seeing any sort of signs of strength or risk on appetite in the S&P 500, then it's probably unlikely you're going to see it in altcoins and Bitcoin. And this chart is good news for the bulls. Overall, the S&P 500 is very much in a bull market, which is why I don't think it's it looks like a top at the moment. And I don't think you're going to see a top, well, this being the top for BTC when you've got a lot of positive signs here for the S&P 500 to continue higher over the next 12 months. And I'm interested in the longer term here, even though some of the shorter term data also looks relatively healthy. You know, 83% hit rates for 1 month later and 6 months later after May has been a 5% or greater month. And these are the the years here. 1 2 3 4 5 six data points. Not too much, but we're looking back 40 odd years with Mays. So 40 Mays. Six of them have been 5% or greater. This is what has happened these time frames after May. 1 month, 3 months, 6 and 12. And 12 looks fantastic for us at this stage. Huge gains. 30% in 85, 17% in 86, 8% in 1990. Remember there was a recession around this period too. 97 28% 2003 16% and this came off the back of you know nearly three years of a bare market going from the 2000 top down to the I think it was 2002 2003 low and then you had a nice big rally out of that 12 months later was fantastic 2009 that was after the GFC and now 2025 this is after the tariffs so in almost all of these situations where you had a 5% increase for May there's been some sort of extreme significant world event. You know, we went through it with this GFC, post GFC, post.com bust, recession. Um, these ones here were after the 1980s collapse, 1980, 1981, '92 when looked like US was going to default to Mexico. So, pretty big things. And now we've just seen massive tariffs which basically crashed the stock markets about 20%. With May now being up 6%. So stats suggest well we've got about a almost guarantee we're going to see it higher 12 months later. And so this is the S&P 500. This is the grind that we've been talking about for weeks now. If I turn on my tools and then also the fractal here for the 5 years. Turn this on. You can see this red line here. And we've put this on the chart going back to these lows. And this has been the grind phase before we start to push a little higher into June. a pullback, significant pullback there, possibly mid to late June. Then things go sideways again and then you start to see a bit of a a healthier end to the year. So, so far this has been working relatively well. Even if it is slightly inverse, you're still seeing the uh the date there working out. So, basically correction, it was a uh move higher. Then it was a correction move higher. And you can see that this has basically been a grind and that's what the 5-year has suggested. So, taking a look at the 20-y year as well, that has also suggested a bit of a grind through this period into June. So, that's the S&P 500. NASDAQ was looking a little healthier. That's exactly what has been happening. You can see that you've got, even though it's a grind, you can see it's heading slightly higher on the grind, whereas the S&P 500 was a little more flat on the grind. So, it's basically very similar to their 5-year patterns. And another reason why I don't think this looks like a top is forming for Bitcoin. Even if there is a pullback, you can see that slight weakness in the in the stock markets as well. And that leads us over to the the US dollar. US dollar has still continued with its downtrend. And generally when that happens, Bitcoin continues higher. It's not always going to be an absolute massive boom to the upside, but generally speaking, you see some pretty strong moves. And at the moment, the US dollar is looking relatively weak here. 98.6 on the daily. It has continued to fall overnight. So it was another significant day down of about 65%. So yeah, we're basically seeing that weakness continue to flow through for the US dollar. And these are the sort of things that might lead to the end of the cycle being quite difficult for the US. Come back to our uh 18-ear cycle that we'll be talking about in today's report. So that's another quick mention to go and subscribe to that right here. You'll get that this afternoon. uh we're looking at the winners's curse phase. So we're seeing stock markets up, we're seeing commodities up, we're seeing Bitcoin, which is to a lesser degree uh in the overall, you know, finance space worldwide. And of course, real estate is also up when you look at the national averages. That looks like we're coming to a head possibly sometime in 2026. The correction happens after that. So I just want to point that out. People think that we get the crash in 2026. I don't think that's the case. I think that happens after uh 2026 because the stock market will peak after this cycle peaks. Stock markets generally peak after the house prices peak. So that leads us over to Micro Strategy. Just a quick update here as we covered it yesterday and I'll do it again tomorrow in the the next videos. Micro Strategy still holding out here $350 odd dollars, but overall it's continued to put in lower highs while Bitcoin has put in higher highs, which is pretty similar to what happened last cycle. So, still on track here after another uh, you know, slight move to the upside. Days to go, just an interesting one. I'm not living or dying by this. 77 days to go to the estimated end date of this cycle being in mid August. And that is just an exact day count from the previous cycle. So that was the day count from the February high to the November lower high which was the Bitcoin all-time high. That took 273 days. So if we count out 271 273 I think would take you to the weekend or thereabouts. Anyway, you're looking at mid August. So about 70 to 80 days to go. So that leads us over to Ethereum and the altcoin space. Total three market cap. This excludes Bitcoin and ETH that had been obliterated. And I did a couple of videos recently on uh what this needs to do in order to get back into a strong position for your altcoin season. So far, none of those things have been met. Closing above 910 billion would be the first case and then getting above all these previous tops where it's been rejected. You can see that line right there. 940 940 roughly 950 950. So $950 odd billion is going to be the real key there for the total uh total crypto market cap excluding BTC and basically your shitcoin market cap right here and it hasn't been able to do that yet along with others couple of days ago put in a new cycle low. So this is the total uh crypto market cap excluding the top 10. So, Bitcoin, ETH, stable coins, that put in a new low essentially meaning it's going down and the old coins continue to suffer in that case. But what hasn't been suffering at least over the last few days is Ethereum. So, this has just been climbing slightly higher day by day. Yesterday was a relatively good day, 2.7% and then ETH versus BTC also saw another um good day here trying to get back above 2.5%. So that was the previous tops and then those highs there at 2.6. That's going to be another key level for Ethereum to break above. Same deal goes for $2,750 for ETH. So day by day, we're tracking ETH as it still remains in a relatively strong position, putting in those higher lows, higher highs. And for you guys following at home with your GAN rules for a breakout, pay attention here. One, two, three levels, three hits at the same price. we could be going for that fourth time breakout. So, it's a pretty good signal there. If you want to learn more about that and learn how to implement it into your trading, TIA premium is the place to go. Otherwise, keep tracking those fourth time breakouts. Know how and when to use them. It's not an all the time thing, but often it works very, very well. So, we'll keep an eye on that. The last time we did this um publicly on the channel, we were watching Salana verse USD and that happened right around here October 2024. We had 1 2 3 we got the fourth time breakout, the retest and then it flew. So that was another really really good signal using that fourth time breakout. That's again fourth time breakout. Sometimes people ask what is gen. That's who you want to look up. absolute legendary trader. So, Ethereum, they're the price targets uh that that still s stand 2,750 up to 2900, which are these previous highs. And at the moment, it looks like it wants to at least attempt it. So, ETH been on the run here, looking relatively strong. And something else that's supporting that is this evidence right here from crowded market report. Just looking at how crowded the market is. The blue are your long speculators or large and and that's on the long side in this case and the red are your commercial speculators. So basically I guess you could call it smart money and dumb money. Dumb money is blue here and they were getting long cuz it's on the upper side of the middle line here through the downtrend. they were trying to long Ethereum through this period and they only managed to get a little win through here whereas the uh the commercials were going short through this period and then only got wiped out here but of course they made their gains on the way down and then they got to take profits therefore prices have to go up so they can buy out of their short positions. Now we see this blue uh large going short again. Are they going to get wrecked? And we see Ethereum push to the the 2900 level and beyond. That seems to be the case almost every time. They get absolutely destroyed for the majority of the period and then maybe make a few gains at the end. Look at this thing. Trying to go short Ethereum through this period. That does not look like a great time to be going short Ethereum. But there they go again trying to do it. So essentially, you want to be on the opposite side to these guys. You're not always going to be right, but most likely the large speculators are almost always wrong. Almost always wrong. And finally, the Elliot wave cycle that Michael has been tracking very closely on his channel. As I said, I'll leave a link to this in the video description. We're still in this wave of three, wave three of five of five. So basically the end wave, but this could be the largest move that we see, which is why we continue to cover Bitcoin, looking at the sentiment and the wind up at this point. If it happens to be the case, then you could see a relatively strong explosive move because the third wave, which is potentially what we're coming into again, in a smaller time frame as well. You can see this third wave right here in the larger wave three as well. Those typically are some of the strongest moves. There is wave three yet again and another wave three and another wave three coming out of the cycle low mind you. So it's a very significant move going from uh at least for BTC it was sort of like 167,000 up to about 20 $25,000. So pretty big moves and that is potentially the wave that we are about to experience. Like, subscribe. I'll see you guys back here at the next video. They're the reasons why I don't think we are at a top or why the market structure doesn't necessarily look like we're at a final top. Yes, we have confirmed a local top being uh from the top down down 9 days, but it doesn't seem like we're at a final top for everything that I've explained in this video. If you want more of that, link in the video description for our free report. This goes along with the stock market and the real estate cycle as well if you guys are longerterm investors and not just here for the shitcoin trades. And I'll see you guys back at the next video. Thanks.