Trend Following Radio: Preference Falsification

Host and Introduction

• Host: Michael Covell
• Podcast Theme: Unfiltered, honest discussions with people who have deep insights into their topics.
• Guest: Timur Kuran, Professor of Economics and Political Science at Duke University.

Topic Overview: Preference Falsification

Definition and Concept

• Preference Falsification: Misrepresenting one's wants due to perceived social pressures to manipulate others' perceptions of one's motivations.
• Implications:
  • Intellectual narrowness
  • Dampened capacity for societal change
  • People often believe the false narratives they adhere to.

Application in Society

• Many people often don't feel free to express their true opinions.
• Example: Gallup poll at Pomona College where 90% of students said they can't speak freely.

Academic Context

University Environment

• Issue: Lack of free speech in universities is a failure of the system.
• Universities claim to encourage free speech but fail in practice.

Student Perspective

• Students often practice preference falsification to avoid social stigma or backlash.
• Comfort in censorship: 50% of students at Pomona felt there should be limits on free speech.

Political Implications

Relevance to American Politics

• Polls and Elections: Preference falsification affects polling accuracy.
• 2016 U.S. Election:
  • Polls misjudged public sentiment supporting Trump, partly due to preference falsification.
  • Trump’s ability to express unthinkable thoughts resonated with many Americans.

Broader Political Examples

• Trump's Strategy: Challenged the status quo by voicing the unthinkable and mobilizing latent preferences.
• Global Context: Preference falsification is not limited to any ideology or country.

Historical and Global Examples

Eastern Europe and Communist States

• Early work on preference falsification examined its impact in Eastern Europe under communism.

Arab Spring and Egypt

• Egypt 2011: Social media coordination led to mass protests in Tahrir Square.
• Outcome: Demonstrators disorganized after initial success, leading to a power vacuum filled by organized groups like the Muslim Brotherhood.

North Korea

• Extreme example where public discourse is tightly controlled.
• People may have lost the private knowledge of free society benefits.

Theoretical Insights

Concept Development

• Originated from discomfort with economic theory of revealed preference.
• Aha Moment: Recognized the discrepancy in classroom dynamics at Stanford.

Broader Implications

• Preference falsification can hinder societal progress and maintain oppressive systems.
• Importance of understanding and challenging preference falsification in policy and discourse.

Closing Thoughts

• Book: "Private Truths, Public Lies" by Timur Kuran.
• Discussion emphasizes understanding preference falsification as a tool to analyze social and political phenomena.
• Encouragement to engage critically and reflectively in public discourse.