Zillow just cut their 2025 home price forecast again in a sign of a continually weakening housing market in 2025 the buyer demand is down the inventory is up and many different cities are now shifting into a buyer's market and what's really interesting is that Zillow has now cut their forecast all the way down to 0.6% growth on a nationwide basis this year this forecast was originally almost 3% when the year began however they've cut 2 months in a row and Zillow is now actually forecasting home value declines in almost 250 metros across the country and the ultimate driver of these downward Price Forecast revisions is rising inventory levels the supply is skyrocketing and this higher Supply is now causing sellers to cut the price for instance we now have the highest price Cuts in the housing market in over a decade according to alos research they're showing that 34 % of single family listings have taken a price cut this month that's the highest price Cut Rate we've seen in over 10 years and by and large these price cuts are highest in the pandemic boom toown States we're talking areas like Florida Texas Arizona and NADA that's where sellers are getting really desperate to cut the price let's take a look at this everyone the price cut rate in Arizona is now 36% of all listings this was as of February 2025 according to data available on r Venture app from realtor.com that was the number one price Cut Rate of any state in the US number two was Florida at 31% we're also seeing the price cut spread to an area like Georgia we're now at a 24% price Cut Rate in Georgia the highest rate in a decade and we're now up to a 24% price Cut Rate in Nevada and so it's these areas in red where the sellers are getting more desperate to cut the price while in the areas in blue the sellers aren't quite as desperate I'll touch upon these states a little later in the video but I think the ultimate issue for home buyers here in 2025 is that while higher price cuts and higher inventory is good news I think a lot of you guys out there look at these initial price cuts and you're not impressed there a lot of sellers are still over listing their homes at ridiculously Sky High valuations and then doing let's just say a $110,000 price cut or a $220,000 price cut maybe lowering it from 600 Grand to 580 Grand or 400 Grand to 390,000 and that simply not enough to get home buyers excited in this market because the affordability constraints are the worst we've ever seen we're in the biggest housing bubble of all time when you look at prices and payments relative to income and inflation and so we're going to need more than just itsy bitsy price cuts to bring buyers back and I want to show you guys what's concerning me about the housing market right now and why I think a lot of people are underestimating the chances that we have a significant downturn this year and that's the buyer demand the home sales the National Association of Realtors just came out with their February 2025 home sale figures and it was the worst February for home sales in 14 years you can see we had 4.26 million seasonally adjusted home sales in February they take the amount of actual homes sold in February times it by 12 and adjust it for seasonality well last year was 4.31 Million so we were down from last February and this was actually the worst February for home sales since 2011 and really was that 2008 through 2011 crash which is the only recent comparison in terms of how low the buyer demand is so if you're a buyer out there and an investor trying to understand this housing market understand this the demand is still way down and it's actually still continuing to drop on a year-over-year basis and I think the market right now is kind of a waiting game for housing you know the demand is down and the listings and price cuts are up but we're still in this kind of standoff of sort between buyers and sellers where a lot of sellers still think they can get top dollar for their home they don't seem to realize that the market is shifted down and for a lot of these sellers it's going to take months and months of their homes sitting on the market before they really decide to cut the price in Earnest however the good news for you guys out there is that values are actually dropping in quite a few States right now Zillow recently updated their February 2025 home value figures not just just their forecast but their actual price growth figures for the month and we saw declines happen in about six to seven states so if we head to reventure app and go to the data point home value growth month over month we could see it's these areas in blue where values dropped in February on a seasonally adjusted basis so with States like uh California Arizona Colorado Texas Georgia Florida and interestingly prices also went down in Vermont and they went down in Hawaii so we have true and real value declines occurring in these markets I think California is the interesting one California was holding on strong for a while there but recently inventory is really spiked and there's some downward price pressure I'm sure you guys aren't surprised to see Florida on the list Arizona is now seeing price Cuts additionally Washington DC is seeing values go down and of course Texas is going down and then you have Oregon Washington and North Carolina right on the cuff of values dropping and I think values could drop by more in 2025 in a lot of these markets because you know we here at reventure we do our own home price forecast you know so I I led with what Zillow is forecasting but we do our own home price forecast here at reventure that actually was um really strong over the last two years predicting where prices are heading in the future and what I'm going to do right now is show you the states where Revenger is forecasting that prices are going to go down the most because these States folks like you look at the inventory you look at the price Cuts you look at the days on Market you know houses are just sitting for a long time sellers are cutting the prices all the cocktails are there for continued value declines and if we shift here to home pric forecast on reveng trap you can see uh this is a score from 0 to 100 50 is in the middle and if your state is below 50 that indicates downward price pressure and we now have downward price pressure in about half the states in the US so we here at revent trap are forecasting declining prices in about 20 different states over the next year where are we forecasting the biggest declines that would be Florida our Price Forecast score is down to a 36 out of 100 in Florida you can see 3 years ago we had Florida at a 76 out of 100 during the peak of the bubble but it's since deflated to a 36 this indicates a heavy buyers Market where prices are already dropping and will continue to drop in the future additionally Texas has uh the second lowest score a 38 out of 100 you can see our price forecast in Texas is continuing to get more bearish here at reventure and the way that we come up with this forecast is by looking at the recent appreciation Trends in the market the days on the market the mortgage rate Trend the inventory Trend and the price cut Trend in all these different areas so this is real fundamental data telling you that these markets are slowing and becoming friendlier for you as a buyer but what I'm really interested in right now is kind of the Mountain West we're seeing Colorado util saw Arizona all really start to slow all of these markets now have a score below 40 where we're officially forecasting declining prices in 2025 additionally Oregon and Washington are also starting to slow watch out in these markets in the pack Northwest and we also have California and Nevada these markets are still technically stable on the reventure forecast at a 45 out of 100 but they're definitely trending down Nevada in particular Nevada was actually at a 53 out of 100 in September now it's at of 45 and that's due to Rising inventory in Nevada but of course we're not seeing the shift to a buyer Market happen everywhere in the US uh it's primarily concentrated in the South Southeast and now the Mountain West where we're seeing buyer friendlier uh situations however in the Northeast and Midwest we still have very tight housing markets and so if you are someone in the northeas OR Midwest you're from there originally understand that in Illinois New York Connecticut and New Jersey those type of States prices are still going up and will continue to go up in the future because you could see our reventure score for Illinois is a 59 out of 100 that's one of the highest that we have in the US why are we bullish on Illinois real estate in 2025 well there's simply no inventory listings in Illinois have dropped from 42,000 before the pandemic to only 16,000 today so there's an acute housing shortage in Illinois there's also an acute housing shortage in New York where listings have dropped from 50,000 down to 28,000 and there's really been no recovery in inventory the last 3 years I want you folks to compare that to a place like Florida where the inventory has exploded through the roof and is at the highest level in a decade and I think what a lot of you guys should do out there is recalibrate your expectations for where prices are going to go up in the future it's going to be a reversal of what we saw kind of during the pandemic we're going to see outperformance here in the Midwest in Northeast and we're going to see underperformance in the south in Mountain West that's the trend that's kind of taking over the housing market right now and I think it's going to be a trend that lasts for the next 2 or 3 years I think an interesting question to ask is what would need to happen to cause home prices to drop by a lot like 20% 30% declines in the last housing crash uh 07 to 2012 prices went down 25% nationally and they went down say 50% in Florida and Arizona what would we need to see for that to happen again well we're already seeing the technical indicators point in that direction right higher price Cuts higher inventory but truly to see a massive crash there needs to be an accompanying recession with large job losses uh the only other two times in US history where we've had a national housing crash 2008 and then the Great Depression in 1929 the unemployment rate in those situations skyrocketed above 10% and there was a lot of force selling on the market and so to see a third 30% drop in value there needs to be an accompanying recession and to understand this point further everyone about how the economy impacts the housing market I want you to take a look at this graph looking at the nonfarm payroll growth in Florida it's basically how many jobs are being added year-over-year and you could see today non-farm payrolls are up 1.4% in Florida year-over-year prior to the pandemic that was around 2% so there's been a big slowdown in job growth in Florida however there's still Positive Growth now compare this to the last crash 07 you could see payrolls in Florida started dropping in late 07 they started Contracting but then by February March 09 Florida lost 7% of its jobs year-over-year right and that's what made that last downturn so bad in Florida it's a similar situation in Nevada Nevada had the biggest housing crash of any state in US history in the last downturn prices went down 60% why did they go to down 60% well the non-farm payroll growth in Nevada went to Min -1% in June 09 meaning that there was 10% fewer jobs in Nevada in June 2009 than June 2008 think about what that level of job losses does to the housing market in terms of defaults foreclosures evictions people being forced to sell now fast forward to today in Nevada nonfarm payroll growth has really slowed we're only at 0.9% growth year-over-year kind of similar to where we were at in late 07 so the question is are we going to see these non-farm payrolls go into negative territory and are we going to see the big job losses one more interesting one to look at is California in California you could see non-farm payroll growth has slowed to basically flat payrolls only went up 0.1% year-over-year in January in California meaning there's no more growth in jobs in California now that's pretty similar to what happened in early 08 California's job growth went flat and then it just careened off a cliff and went to minus 7% in August 09 values in California went down almost 40% in that last crash and so I think this is instructive for you guys out there who might be waiting not just for let's just say some initial price Cuts or values to go down 5 to 10% I think some of you are waiting for much bigger price declines 30 40% and I think it's feasible to see that in certain markets given how overvalued the prices are however to see a 30 or 40% drop we would need to see uh the payroll figures really start to go down there would need to be a lot of job losses which would create Force selling foreclosures mortgage defaults uh and that would really be the impetus of what causes prices to go down by a lot and so a lot just hinges on where the economy is heading in 2025 and you guys can let me know in the comments do you think we're heading for a recession do you think we're going to see lots of job losses this year certain indicators right now say yes other indicators are more unclear I'm curious what you guys think but fundamentally it's super important to understand what the trends are now in your housing market because that's going to be very instructive about where the Market's going in the short term and if you should buy now or wait or where you should buy and one area I continually to look at is my backyard here in Tampa St Pete take a look at this everyone we have values now dropping month over month in pretty much every ZIP code here in Tampa St Pete and some of these Z codes prices are dropping 1.3% month over month which annualized is over 15% a year you can see there's only a couple Pockets here in the center of Tampa where values are still appreciating but I don't think that's going to last for long because we have a heavy downward Price Forecast for most of these areas on reventure app and I just want to quickly explain to you guys how to use this forecast so if you look in an area like 33607 in Tampa you can see this forecast was a 78 3 years ago and was a 45 last year so a year ago we were forecasting kind of stable to slightly declining prices in this ZIP code now we're at a 27 out of 100 when you see that type of drop it indicates a massive shift in the market and the reason we're forecasting that type of drop here in Tampa is due to a massive spike in homes for sale we've now gone up to 114 homes on the market you can see that's by far the highest level of Supply in a decade meanwhile the Doom is up to to 91 days on the market and we're up to a 42% price Cut Rate so what the reventure score does is it takes those data points and Aggregates them together to create a total score that gives you an indication that prices are going to drop and drop potentially by a lot what I would encourage you guys to do if you're interested in the future direction of your housing market is to access that score on reventure trap head to ww. reventure doapp and type in your city or zip code and then go to popular data and hit home price forecast and upgrade to a Premium plan the cost is $39 a month to see that forecast this is really invaluable data to help you as a buyer and investor understand where your Market is trending