Transcript for:
Butterfly Effect L44: Logic Flow 2

so so i think i think when you're looking at this and you're saying okay what's what's tested untested here you have to be aware that you just test the top of a weekly so so you're going to be targeting something relative to that like you're going to be targeting this down here so so when you can't say oh rewind this and and and and this is the next ladder point confirmed so so this is 10 026 or whatever this level that was hit ten thousand we're just going to call it 10 000. this is the highest bitcoin might ever be in its lifetime no could it go up to 50 or 100k yes but when it was 14 000 that's the highest it was ever gonna be when it was twelve thousand that's the highest ever gonna be when it was eleven thousand and ten thousand five and ten thousand eight or whatever these are the highest points it will ever be until it breaks that long-term trend so when you're looking at the exterior time frame and you're seeing this is possibly the highest we'll ever see bitcoin go again for the next 20 years or forever until it dies this is a this is the reality i'm not saying this is what's happening it's not my prediction but this is a reality because this is the perpetual ladder down that it's still respecting from here to here and back to here and blah blah blah blah blah right and then there's that forever trend that's been existed that's basically created a 20k that that that this is it man so when you're looking at that i don't think when you've just touched the top you can say like i think you have to target something lower i think i think at a minimum you have to start targeting this range which it did it targeted the back side here to see if it can hold because the scenario it's creating is that okay what if it does hold this backside level for long enough right like what if this backside does hold and it just continues to hold here and until that trend is broken at that point you can go over this smart key right here and you can break out of your ladder but for now when you've just tested the highest point you will ever see again possibly forever because there's no guarantee but coins going up to those those numbers and levels right this thing could go down to 500 it's possible it's it's stocks man it could go it could go to zero and hyper cash could take over not likely but possible yes so so when you're looking at this target being hit here i i don't i don't think you can like that's why i'm picking these levels down here because it's going there and even further below like why can't it go to 5800 right now it absolutely can now this kind of there's something here like you you can see it on the charts there's something there there's something here like you can see where these levels are so so this is like we can see here's a range somewhere right there that candle low right there there's a range somewhere so so we have to dissect like what happened here to make sense of what makes sense right and and then same with here like okay where's the actual levels here and where's the actual levels here because those are your two ranges in the move on the bottom so so when you just hit the very top of your range and you are pulling back i don't i don't think i would necessarily be looking to catch a knife until at a minimum we targeted the back side a minimum of a backside because it's going to range test two times on the next time frame down we're just working for it back right like we don't we don't have anything here and we're not instantly gonna snap down to 5800 but what we can do is we can go to our next time frame just like when we go to the four hour to the one hour and say okay what is making sense here and aha we have it here so i would not be looking to take any longs there until we're getting kind of to this region and i think you have to also define what trade this is like we have trigger points and those define exits on the trades we get into okay so let's talk about that for a second so trigger points can be like okay this is the line like we have a trigger point this is the line between scalping to a target and possibly being in a position trade or a swing trade right or or even just maybe a little longer term scalp maybe you're still within the confines of what's technically a scale but you you want to let it breathe because you hit a target whatever so that becomes the the trigger point becomes the defining line between what your trade goes manifests into once you're in it is a trigger point but what your targets are catching knives you still have to work backwards from that like you or backwards in time frames or from the front side of the chart as i like to call it you still have to justify it on the higher time frames like these these are very justifiable targets simply simply because we just hit the top of a weekly so so where would we even begin to start looking for a long well there is nothing on the weekly and we just tell the weekly right here which is just the daily right here so if we simply just went backwards we would find some pretty pretty juicy targets backside front side if those are our targets if if we start getting two here let me uh delete some of these brush strokes because we can't really see can we here let me do that delete all these brush strokes if you were looking at this and and you go to down in time frame i i think you're just missing what's happening in the move i think you're i think you're simply just missing like even here in the hourly would be i think actually the correct play here is the back side now that i'm looking at it did the hourly get filled yeah it was perfect but it's just like a slightly better piece of the range of the back side i don't think this is what held it up i think like i might as well delete that level and just say this was the backside that held it up because this backside is a lot more damneding as a one-two range test than a one hour that's floating there just like a 15 minute that's floating there doesn't really make sense does it when we look at where this thing was and where it could possibly go right like this just to me doesn't like whatever that 80 150 level is just it it's just simply way too high it's simply way too high and the reality is now we've already tested the back side whether bitmex likes it or not we've already tested this back side we've already tested this backside again whether bitmex likes it or not we already have so so our next piece of this range is going to be down in here and even when we were justifying this next piece of this trade so so when we were here in uh like let's let's talk about the trade that we took even right so find that that's been tested we can just simply put this here we were at 97 whatever it was there and we used our trend i believe it was like something like this to uh justify that trade i believe it had a swing low right there and we were at 8 900 or what is that 9 700 weren't we i think we uh we did something like this and we were up at 9 700. like i would i would pose the same question and i would say okay here's the daily oh that's right we were right here and we said okay the daily is breaking so so if we know the daily is breaking because this is the day we're trading and we're at 97 something we're trying to get 97 50 and 97 20 was the last level it hit and then and then so fine we were here and there was no heart closes so we went to the six hour and there was one card close here so we got some pretty uh pretty accurate information to say okay this is what's going to dump the daily like like what's logical here so so even here like how we said this was a 10 trade so from 97 we'll try to get this close as we can 97 20 is the last level that hit where was that 10 justification right well it was right here this is how we justified that trade right to here and uh we said there's a ten percent piece right and there's a six percent piece and that six percent was oh no no sorry this this was the piece that we had ten percent maybe it's hard with this magnet let me take that off because i remember we were at uh 97 20 and we said there's a six percent piece and a 10 piece or maybe it was 11. so this this was the final target that's true this was the final target and then we also had this and then we also had a piece of the range inside of here so we had kind of three marks so so this is the same thing it's like what makes sense right you're right here in the moment you're gonna hit this level longer term you can go after this even longer term you can go here and that's that 12 hour level that we hit by the way right there so so actually when we took this trade it was the same thing we're talking about now it's like what makes sense right like this is the top of the range what makes sense and the bottom of its range right like the price the profit cap the profit cap is what makes sense so if we simply go back to this weekly and we say okay we touched this right we just touched this level like what makes sense here like where's the profit cap if we're willing to stay in this for weeks and we shorted that level our profit cap is like this from here yeah i would say right here that's our profit cap and then and then if you justified even lower time frame your profit cap is from like that would be like the first profit cap the next profit cap from here would be down to here which is also a one-two range test of here so this signifies the same piece of the move so 22 or the backside at 20 percent what would you profit cap to set well you could profit cap it at 22 that's fine that would be your final target but if it hits this and bounces like that should have been on your radar because this is a one-two range test of the same thing so we just we did the same thing when we looked at this trade here and we uh we took that 9720 right here off of you know whatever this was and we had been looking at this trade and there was 97.50 in here what whatever it was that's fine it doesn't matter whatever whatever it was here we did the same thing we just simply profit capped it and that's our range so yeah again when you look at this level this 8150 it really doesn't make sense does it like it it's just kind of way too high way too high it's the top of a weekly the very top of the range that gets hit on bitmex and and the top piece of that range but again i'm not trading on bit max and i would not have taken that trade you know at a minimum i would have been okay this is the greediest point of that and then there's a back side here and there's some kind of other level in here there's a one hour again i don't even think i would have justified the one hour but this is justifiable your profit cap from here to here is the maximum right from this this point here to this point here like where's your profit cap right yeah this is justifiable this is not as a profit cap that is not justifiable off the top of a move a 15 minute level i just it can't be it can't be it's still got it's still got room to move if that's where it's stopping and it actually did it went after the backside so so my profit cap would have been like this always start from the highest timeframe down and say okay what's happening in the way of where can this thing go the higher we catch the bigger part of the move the bigger it has room to move down so if i was catching this this is a ladder point from back here so that's that's important to know again it's it's just this could possibly be the highest price bitcoin ever goes forever did this might have been the top boys i don't know i'm not saying it is i'm saying it's very possible it could have been this might have been the top so so if that's the top the profit cap exists down here right so you're either still in the trade because a trigger point hasn't been hit and that trigger point would be like this magnetos not one so i'd either still be in the trade because my trigger wasn't hit or i would have taken a target below but if my target's down here i would still be in this trade until this trigger's hit now that's a pretty crazy trend so i don't necessarily think i would have yeah right here would be my target or this one right here but that this for sure because i know there's a weekly range right here this is absolutely a target and now i don't think i would uh i would be in this straight like you drop this fast to a backside and 20 i mean i would have used a trigger point to get me out of this thing like this one here there to there trigger point like that but you would have given up ample opportunity to exit on that like lots of opportunities to exit yeah well it's it's also the latter the long term it's not just a weekly hold right like it's it's also the long-term ladder that's been holding this move down and it got held again so you know my profit cap would have been here looking at this would have been here i might have put it down here somewhere then i would have adjusted it here because this range is going to get hit for sure right like this this range out of these two ranges this will bounce it this piece will bounce that range right so then i would have just profit capped it to some daily right here so you know my profit cap would have been here to here um because it's the other part of the weekly range like there's kind of two parts of this weekly range like like if this is going to test you're going to have two tests on this you're going to have two tests on this you can see the range right there like you can see it when it kind of comes down here when it goes up and then comes down you can see it develops its own range right here it has two ranges here that it's going to go after it has this range and this range then i would go to my daily and i would say oh here's one here's the next one so those would be like my two if i wanted to make big money because i caught the actual like the absolute top those would be my two points and and e both of those are represented by this back side so this back side is very justifiable as a trade like whether it goes back side front side back side front side back side front side combination range test to get here this is going to be the one for both of these this is the one this can be a two this can be a two this is also gonna have this two will also have another number one in here somewhere or possibly right here right so so it'll have its own number one which is you know a one two three of the entire range on a bigger time frame right because this is just this you go back to the weekly you're gonna have back side front side back side front side combination so you have a one two three of the bigger range test so that's something we haven't talked about but something i don't think we really need to talk too much about right the bigger time frame that's why we have backside backside front side and a backside front side combination level with a possible front side to that backside front side so possibly four but really on the larger time frame it becomes three range three three tests of the larger range but two tests of the current range if that makes sense because this current range will have a one a two right which is just a one for the larger time frame which is going to have a one and a two right here on this front side right here so this is going to be possibly the one which is going to move here which is three tests of this range but really it's it's one test here and and one backside larger test and one front side larger test this just has two smaller twos in it and one of those twos is this front side right and then the second two is this back side and that back this this two can't be developed here until we have the back side front side hit so it's like a one two three on the larger time frame but if you're if you're in the current time frame there's two tests of a range but then three on the larger time frame which makes sense because the smaller time frame in front of it is going to have two tests which amount to one test of the small of of the bigger time frame does that make sense or it might be confusing i can explain it again if it's confusing okay so if we have a back like we have backside front side we know that for sure like okay here's a backside on the daily here's the front side of the daily okay so there's two tests here we also know that there's a backside front side combination test okay so what's gonna happen is you have on the smaller time frame without me going to it you're gonna have number one number two okay that is going to be on the larger time frame one test so there's two tests inside of one because you can't see those tests on the larger time frame but what you can see is one right on the smaller time frame two and then three right because you're gonna have backside front side back side front side combination that backside front side combination is the one two range test of the smaller time frame so when there's a one and a two on a smaller time frame that ends up being one test on the larger time frame so you actually have three tests because those one and two are making up of a smaller time frame like this so one right there let's delete these brush strokes so you're going to have one two right there which is just one test of the back side on a larger time frame so that's one one test of a large time frame the backside front side right here back side front side is also a one and then the front side is a two so it actually has what like like i said it has four tests but really it's only three because you have the smaller time frame backside the smaller time frame front side which on the bigger time frame is one test on that same time frame you're also going to have a backside front side right here which is the third test and then the front side is the fourth test which when you go to the larger time frame is only two tests so on a larger time frame we can say there's three tests of a level a back side backside front side combination level and a front side level so there's four tests because there's a backside front side for both but the first number one and two which exist here the first number one and two which exist here ends up being one test the backside front side combination level which is the next level after this number one gets hit is the second test and then the front side is the third test so it's four tests but it's four tests on a smaller time frame three on the larger but the larger time frame is only two final so once number one and two gets hit right here like one and two and also you have back side front side this makes up of one total right this makes up of the second test this makes up of the third test but on the larger time frame it's simply just two tests but these two tests combine and make it one test on that larger time frame so you have three tests and that's why we have a back side a front side and a back side front side combination because that back side front side combination wherever that exists in these middle candles makes up of the completion of the backside front side test here and the first test of the next block so one and two right here these have a one and two this makes up of the first test of that block so it gives it three tests but four backside front side like a total a total of four levels so backside front side two times right but one of those backside front side combination levels is just that as a backside front side combination so where it makes up of two independent tests one of those turns into the backside front side so it's actually three tests but it's four tests total right so one two one two this ends up being one this ends up being a second test this ends up being a third test on the larger time frame you see how those two make up of one test on the larger time frame this is just the one test of a back side and then there is like this so if one and two like this one and two right here and here make up of one test those two levels are simply back testing one time once that one and two is complete that's the back side and then you're gonna have the final front side level and you're gonna so this is we're gonna call this the number two so this is the front side this is the back side so that's three so far what's going to protect this is the top of its range because this is going to be the greediest point so your three is actually in between your one and two so your second test actually goes here but that's not your front side that's your front side backside combination so this is actually the final test of a one two where two is the greediest level but there's a three that exists between one and two right here which is the top of the range that's protecting the number two so there's three tests there's there's back side a back side front side and a front side to the larger piece but then inside of that there's four tests because there's a back side front side it's it's a linear test on it's its own time frame like here the daily would have its own linear information like back side front side once those two are tested that's a number one to the larger piece that number one also has a number two which is here the greediest level which would give you the three here which is the top of its range so you have back side front side and back side front side combination level right but the back side is compromised the back side is composed of the backside front side of the smaller time frame so there's four tests but there's two sections of linear tests right so one and two and one and two those are two different tests on two different time frames and they're linear to the to itself once they complete they make up of a backside on a front side so one and a two but then there's a three that exists that protects the greedy level hopefully that makes sense one two two three this is one this is two this is the backside forensic combination