dump toober is here I told you this was coming I warned you to get out of crypto that's what all the influencers on Twitter will be saying is they furiously delete all their bullish tweets but I'm not going to pretend I've not being bullish today I'm going to tell you whether I'm still bullish despite the dump or whether this Bitcoin breakdown changed everything then I'll break down one thing I was very wrong about and set the records straight then I'll also show you exactly how bad this dump could get and finally I will reveal my Golden Rule and plan this is a very important video guys I will be covering a lot so I need you to do two things first get a pen and paper if you're old school like me and you like to write things down or a not app if you're all techy second I need you to smash that like button please for every like this video gets I'll add 10 cents to a prize poll and give that money away to one of you guys so hit that like button and make me broke I'm thinking this giveaway will be worth at least a few hundred I'll randomly drop details on how to win at some point in this video but before we get started here is a quick reminder that this is not Financial advice and I am not a financial adviser this video is not intended for UK consumers don't invest unless you prepare to lose all the money you invest crypto is a high-risk investment and large unregulated you are unlikely to be protected if something goes wrong if you're not in the UK let's get started so this week has been a bit crazy it feels like one step forward and two steps back again that about sums up this bull run so far everyone was excited for pump toober but this whole Iran Israel tip fortat has so far turned it into dump Tober now of course you have the World War III crazies coming out and telling us the end is near if I had one bit coin for every time I heard World War II was coming I'd be Michael sailor last time the editor didn't bleep that joke out hopefully he did this time anyway guys let me share some Insider knowledge about financial markets I promised you a golden rule later but this isn't it this is like a silver rule or something like that now most participants in financial markets be it stocks crypto or whatever a weak-handed fragile sensitive little drama queens who have panic attacks every time anything bad happens in the world I'll give you an analogy for you football fans out there you know how football players act like they're taking sniper fire every time an opposing team player bumps into them that's how Traders react every time a geopolitical event happens and almost every single time a few days later or weeks later the new cycle moves on and things go back to normal don't believe me let me prove it January 8th 2020 why is that date important because on that date Iran launched a direct attack on the US as in they fired missiles at a US military base in retaliation for the US killing General solmani in a missile attack a few days earlier on January 3rd what did Bitcoin do it dumped 10% top to bottom and then it was like oh the market doesn't care and it resumed its bullish Trend zooming out and looking back this blimp is a nothing thing but back then everyone was worried America was about to go to war with Iran and they were convinced it would cause World War II but four years later we see just how insignificant this event was in the scope of the entire Bull Run here's another date you might remember April 13th 2024 much more recent that was the last time Iran launched a retaliatory attack against Israel now the dump started earlier because they announced the attack 24 hours before they actually launched it top to bottom this dump was around 15% before once again everyone forgot about the attack and Bitcoin resumed whatever the heck it was doing before crabbing or something we saw similar with the stock market but recovery took a little longer but still after a 4% dip in a week or so s SPX res resumed its bullish Trend and went on to make new all-time highs this tweet sums it up perfectly it shows these major geopolitical events in the last four years and how markets reacted you'll notice that the 60-day return is always positive and this means that these geopolitical events usually lead to short-term Panic driven dips I can go through many more examples guys but I don't need to the data is right here you're smart you get it 99% of the time these fears are temporary my advice is to stay chill let the drama queens do their thing personally I'm sitting on my hands how about you drop a comment below and let me know now let's move on to some more interesting stuff October in my last video I said that October tends to start badly and I said to expect one last ShakeOut but this tweet from Legend Eric Crown sums it up nicely let's break it down October generally sees the low of the month early on the average is by day 10 eight out of the last 13 years this was also the low for the entirety of quarter 4 when the weekly trend is bullish the average for setting a low drops to 7 days now that's a lot of words a concise summary is that the first week of October is shaky usually that's when the low is set and from there quarter 4 is bullish most years like I said guys one last shake out but now I need to remind you of another thing I talk about often and most people won't want to hear this because it's hard to hit they'd rather live in a fantasy world where all our old bags are 100x in quarter 4 and we live happily ever after the thing is most content creators only tell the community what they want to hear because others are afraid people will click away from a video and lose engagement I don't care about that I love you guys I appreciate you so much for watching so I'm honest with you that's why there is a fact I've been sharing for a while now the first quarter 4 after a harving is generally pretty bad for altcoins good for Bitcoin but not for alts recently I suggested that you not marry yourself to the idea that SS will pump in quarter four prepare for the possibility that they won't and you won't be disappointed if they don't and if they do you'll be extra happy but the reality is that last bull run the best performing alss didn't take off until January look at Saul it dumped from $5 to $1 between quter 3 and quter 4 of 2021 that is an 80% drop I really hope my alss don't dump that hard next we have Luna it was completely flat for a large part of quarter 4 then slowly climbed but only made a new alltime high in the final days of the quarter next is aah this moves Sideways from almost 2/3 of quarter 4 then it pumped a bit but didn't go parabolic until quarter 1 of 2021 look I could show you way more examples but I don't want to bore you I'm sure you get my point but let me quickly show you one more thing that everyone completely ignores everyone shows you the Bitcoin version of this all the time and says quarter 4 is the best month the ethereum version is right beside it on the website but it isn't even shown because it doesn't fit The Narrative of the amazing quarter 4 altcoin rally but I'll show you so this eth table shows that quarter 4 is actually only the third best quarter for eth which is important because eth is more correlated to altz than Bitcoin quarter 1 and quarter 2 are historically better for eth now before you panic sell I want to be clear this doesn't change anything for me I'm not selling my all I still hold them I'm just ready for the reality that quarter 4 might suck for alts and I'm okay with that the fact that my alts are down right now doesn't phase me because I was mentally ready for this scenario and that is a super powering crypto this Market is so volatile that it catches many people off guard so if you're prepared then you have a powerful Edge I was prepared for quarter 4 potentially sucking for alts and I was also ready for the blatant Market manipulation that causes this dump on Bitcoin now before you say it dumped because of warfar is not manipulation yes you're right but hear me out I gave you guys some alfron Sunday's video and I hope you listened and this is not a I told you so I'm repeating it because this is still valid right now and it's still critical that you take this in all financial markets are heavily manipulated to rob the little guys like me and you this manipulation usually happens when sentiment is Extreme either bullish or bearish and we are in a period of low liquidity low liquidity matters because it's easier to influence price at those times this is because manipulators need less buying or selling power to make big moves as there are fewer buyers or sellers to absorb the orders now this whole week China's on holiday and China is one of the biggest Market participants in crypto and even in trafi with Chinese Traders not active this week we are seeing a massive reduction in liquidity which opens the door for manipulators to move prices this is why I said on Sunday to be very careful this week and why you need to be careful for the rest of the week now of course the war fears are not orchestrated by manipulators but they just use any excuse during these periods to either pump or crash prices usually by magnifying the impact of moves that would have happened anyway so the warfar would have caused a dump anyway but manipulators made that dump far worse which is what I believe happened dips are temporary but I'm still bullish guys 3 days it's just 3 days a quarter lasts for roughly 90 days this is day three we have 87 left I am bullish for Bitcoin in quarter 4 in my opinion in a bull run dips are temporary so nothing has actually changed for me in fact we just keep getting more and more good data out of the US on Tuesday we got the jolts job opening numbers and they came in higher than expected and higher than last month this measures how many job openings there are in the US at the moment a big number means more employers are looking to hire which is good if tomorrow's NFP comes out positive too it indicates that the labor market in the US is recovering which is a really good sign for the economy another cool fact is that Crypt bull runs always start in quarter 4 for Bitcoin not for alts remember that this cool chat by mag shows at October is the kickoff point I don't see this October being any different now I want to point out a quick one that I've not seen anybody talking about and it's the Dixie chart the Dixie chart is the US dollar Index it measures the strength of the US dollar in bare markets the dollar usually strengthens because it's seen as a safe haven asset essentially people hold dollars as they cash out of stocks crypto and other risk markets in Bull markets nobody wants to hold dollars they rather hold riskier assets like stocks or crypto so the US dollar weakens as they sell it to buy those the Dixie is hovering around its 9mon low right now and it's fast approaching its 14-month low this could indicate a lot of cash is Flowing to risk markets which is a bullish sign but there are plenty of other reasons to be bullish I talk about them all the time watch Sunday's video if you want to know more for example the M2 money supply is expanding which is important because the more money circulating in the global economies the more Finds Its way into risk markets a beautiful example of this is last week China said it would start printing money to inject into the economy look at the Chinese stock market since then it has basically erased an 86 we downtrend in 2 weeks two weeks imagine what happens when the US starts printing two eventually all that extra money trickles into crypto now speaking of money trickling into crypto I need to come out and admit something I was wrong guys I'm sorry but I recently shared the false rumor that FTX repayments was starting this week and it turns out that was nonsense they probably won't start until later in quarter 4 I want to give a shout out to Thomas Brazil Brazil I'm sorry if I've butchered the pronunciation of your name but thank you for pointing this out to me dude I dm'd him and he broke it all down for me ran also did a great job at breaking it down here the basic summary is payouts are coming in late quarter 4 or early quarter 1 so the billions being redistributed to crypto DG probably won't flow into alts until later than I thought to be fair that lines up nicely with my alts pumping quarter 1 Theory so that's fine by me look guys I'm human I get things wrong sometimes all I can say is I'm sorry do you forgive me I hope you do now we have two things left to talk about my Golden Rule and this giveaway remember I'm giving away 10 cents for every like I get so smash that like button I will reveal exactly how to enter soon but first let's talk about my Golden Rule to explain this I'm going to share a personal story with you so I first started crypto in around 2019 through a random chance encounter I moved to a new area made some new friends and they were into crypto but when I started I had literally no idea what I was doing I was inexperienced weak dumb emotional desperate you name it I was broke I was at Uni I was working two sometimes three jobs just to get by and these friends were talking about 100x gains that made in 2017 and I was hooked I saw crypto as a way out so I pounced at the opportunity when it came but honestly guys it didn't go well there were two big crashes in that bare market and I screwed up badly on both of them the first was September 2019 crypto crashed hard I bought most of my crypto up here and when it crashed I panic sold everything and lost thousands but I'm not a quitter so I took that money I had left put together more and started again then came the covid-19 crash in March 2020 and I panic sold again now that absolutely wrecked me I gave up on crypto in 2020 I was convinced that it was a scam I was done with it but like I said I'm not a quitter and after a few weeks I decided to give it one last go a few more months of saving and I started crypto again in 2021 with around 6K and a dream to retire my family but this time I implemented my Golden Rule do not panic from that point on I stopped Panic selling massive dumps I switched my mindset I started treating dumps as opportunities or in some cases I just sat in my hands and didn't buy or sell and that changed everything for me now I'm very close to that goal of retiring my parents and I'm confident I'll get there this year so the Golden Rule guys is do not panic when dumps happen just take a step back take some time and plan your next move carefully you will often find that taking a few hours to think allows you to calm down and make better decisions and especially in situations like this one where we are right now I showed you many examples of warfare's leading to nothing but let's not pretend there isn't a slight chance that this escalates and Israel actually goes to war with Iran if that happens there is likely more downside on bitcoin and alts and times like those are when it's easy to start Panic selling now I'm not telling you do not sell I don't give Financial advice I'm just saying don't panic cell just take time to think about what you're doing my plan's simple I am changing nothing I'm holding my alts and sitting on my hands right now like literally I'll do it right now now for the giveaway guys just drop a comment below saying I won't Panic sell and you better mean it I will give away 10 cents for every like this video gets and if some cheeky git decides to make a bot and give this video 1 million likes I am not giving away 100K behave but other than that guys cheers for watching love you all don't be a dumass and I'll see you next time