Lecture Notes on Realism in International Relations and Current Global Conflicts

Introduction

• Discussion on the prolonged war in Ukraine and its implications.
• Observation that this situation leads to a return to a Cold War-like environment with Chinese and American-led orders.

Context of the Discussion

• Series hosted by Stanford University featuring Professor John Mearsheimer from the University of Chicago.
• Exploration of thought-provoking ideas in political science and international relations.

Personal Journey of Professor Mearsheimer

• Born in Brooklyn, with aspirations of being an athlete.
• Interest in international relations sparked during a mandatory course in junior year at West Point.
• Pursued a Ph.D. in political science focused on international relations, influenced by supportive professors.
• Emphasizes love for intellectual discourse and big ideas.

Key Concepts in Realism

Definition of Realism

• Realism holds that states prioritize the balance of power, focusing on their relative strength to ensure survival.
• Great powers are particularly concerned about their power in relation to others.

Historical Examples

1. China's Century of National Humiliation (1840-1949)
   • China's weakness allowed for foreign exploitation.
2. Post-Soviet Russia and NATO Expansion
   • Russia's opposition to NATO expansion viewed as a direct threat during its period of weakness.

Characteristics of Realism

• Does not differentiate between democracies and non-democracies; all states act similarly to maximize power.
• Rejects moral judgments of good and bad states, focusing solely on power competition.

U.S. Foreign Policy and Realism

Unipolar Moment (1991-2017)

• U.S. acted in a liberal fashion, believing it could promote democracy and engage with China, expecting it would become a liberal democracy.
• Critique of this strategy as naive and ignoring historical realist logic.

Shift Back to Realism (Post-2017)

• Recognition that U.S. needs to adopt a containment strategy towards China.
• Biden's approach is realpolitik in nature, despite liberal rhetoric.

Global Order and Multilateralism

Transition to Multipolarity

• U.S. no longer solely controls global order; China and Russia are emerging powers.
• Increased competition leading to the emergence of distinct regional orders (Chinese-led vs. American-led).

Future of Multilateral Institutions

• Weakening international order with emerging regional powers reshaping rules.
• Institutions like the UN becoming less effective.

Strategic Interests of the U.S.

• Key regions include: Europe, East Asia, and the Gulf.
• East Asia gaining prominence over Europe for U.S. strategic interests.
• Continuous importance of the Gulf due to oil, despite lacking great powers.

Ukraine Conflict Overview

Mearsheimer's Predictions

• Predicted conflict due to NATO expansion and U.S. disregard of Russian security concerns.
• Critique of U.S. policy for ignoring Russian warnings about NATO's eastward push.

Current Situation in Ukraine

• Likely to result in a prolonged conflict or a cold peace, with no meaningful resolution.
• Emphasis on the need for the U.S. to improve relations with Russia while pivoting to focus on China.

The Role of China in the Ukraine Conflict

• China has vested interest in preventing Russian failure in Ukraine.
• As the war continues, the U.S. is limited in addressing the Chinese challenge due to its focus on Europe.

Domestic Implications of Foreign Policy

Economic Consequences

• Rising costs and public dissatisfaction could influence political calculus in the U.S. and Europe.
• Potential for domestic unrest regarding continued support for Ukraine amidst economic strains.

Risk of Nuclear Escalation

• Possible nuclear scenarios if Russia perceives existential threats.
• The paradox of U.S. objectives potentially increasing risks of nuclear conflict.

Security Flashpoints in Asia

Taiwan vs. South China Sea

• Both regions present substantial risks for conflict; Taiwan is crucial for China.
• Increased militarization in the South China Sea could lead to incidents.

Military Dynamics

• U.S. and allies enhancing deterrent capabilities in response to Chinese aggression.
• Historical context of risky military strategies driven by political imperatives.

Conclusion

• Mearsheimer argues that the current geopolitical landscape is fraught with danger.
• The U.S. must navigate its foreign policy carefully to avoid escalating tensions further.