Uber's Future in Autonomous Vehicles

Sep 17, 2024

Lecture on Uber and Autonomous Vehicles

Introduction

  • Discussion on autonomous vehicles and key players: Waymo, Cruise, Tesla, BYD, Xpeng.
  • Focus on Uber as a central figure in the autonomous vehicle space.

Uber's Market Position

  • Market Capitalization: $152.2 billion.
  • Growth Metrics:
    • Forward P/E: 27x
    • Stock growth over 5 years: 112%
    • Year-to-date growth: 17%
    • Sales growth forecast: 15.5% average in coming years.
    • EPS growth forecast for FY 2024: 17.6%, followed by 44.4% and 32.2% in subsequent years.
  • Valuation Metrics:
    • Forward P/E less than 5-year mean
    • EV to EBITDA: 20.9x
    • Price to sales: 3.3x
    • Price to free cash flow: Improving
    • Price earnings to growth: 0.56 (considered cheap if under 1)

Uber's Business Model

  • Transitioned from unprofitable to profitable.
  • Focus on infrastructure rather than owning fleets.

Partnerships in Autonomous Vehicle Space

  • Uber's partnerships: Waymo and Cruise.
  • Expansion into Austin and Atlanta in 2025 with Waymo.
    • Fleet includes all-electric Jaguar I-Pace vehicles.
    • Uber to manage and dispatch these vehicles.
    • Service available for various Uber ride types in geo-fenced areas.

Uber's Position and Strategy

  • Emphasizes distribution and app presence.
  • Comparison to other platforms: Google for search, Airbnb for lodging.
  • Ride-hailing market outlook: Valued at $160 billion, expected to reach $384.5 billion by 2031.

Future of Autonomous Vehicles

  • Potential cost reduction in consumer pricing per mile.
  • ARK Invest predictions:
    • Autonomous taxis to decrease personal vehicle ownership.
    • Possible increase in traffic and decrease in auto accidents.
    • Market cap predictions are optimistic.

Uber's Role in Autonomous Future

  • Largest mobility and delivery platform.
  • Positioned to assist in global deployment and scaling of autonomous technologies.
  • App consolidation advantage over multiple, individual company apps.

Uber's Growth and Financial Health

  • Emphasizes asset-light model and growth in partnerships.
  • Increase in autonomous vehicle trips: 6x year over year.
  • New services like airport curbside drop-off with Waymo.
  • Expansion into freight with partners like Aurora and Volvo.

Summary

  • Uber's transformation from a cash-burn to a cash-flow generating entity.
  • Stock performance reflects business improvements and market confidence.

Conclusion

  • Lecturer's bullish stance on Uber's potential in autonomous vehicle landscape.
  • Invitation for audience opinions and further engagement.