So following all this crazy hype on AI, NVIDIA stock this past week has passed Apple to be in their overall market cap. So the whole valuation of NVIDIA now is $3.3 trillion. dollars. Just soak that in for a second.
$3.3 trillion for this, this, uh, you know, hardware company out of Taiwan, more than Apple, more, which is also about 3.3 trillion dollars as a valuation, more than Microsoft, more than Google, more than Exxon, mobile, GM, Volkswagen Group, you name it. Nvidia is the top of the heap. Now is that rational? Does that make sense? Does that make sense to you?
It doesn't make sense to me. Does that make sense to you? It doesn't make sense. With all the hype surrounding AI, NVIDIA has now surpassed Apple in its market valuation.
In its overall market cap, it is 3.3 trillion US dollars. just let that soak in for a second 3.3 trillion with a t us dollars that's crazy that is more than apple which is also about 3.332 something uh more than microsoft more than than Google, more than Amazon, more than ExxonMobil, more than GM, more than like any other company in the world. NVIDIA, a little company that was started out of Taiwan, right? Those guys are making bank, bank. Their financing costs just went to zero because of this.
Now, does it make sense? No. In my opinion, no. But that's the way the market goes, right? So, so there has has been outrageous hype.
And if you've seen my other videos about AI, you know that I think it's cool, it's useful, but it's just another step in the whole automation thing. And the LLMs, they're not leading to AGI or artificial general intelligence. There's a growing chorus of people now that are coming around to that view. So, you know, great.
I don't care who's right. I don't care. if I'm first to be right or not or last. I don't care. I just want to know the truth.
And the truth really is that this whole AI generation has been overhyped. And I would do the same, maybe, if I were the VCs. They're just acting rationally. The venture capital companies, they just want to get the highest valuation they possibly can. NVIDIA is huge.
So how do you manage your stock market? How do you manage your portfolio in this kind of environment where Nvidia is worth more than Apple? That is not rational. Well, Warren Buffett famously said that the markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
Ha ha ha, which is true. And when I went to Wharton, the famous professor in the first finance class got up in front of all these... potential traders and people that were going to be trading on the stock market, not traders of their country.
And he said to everybody, you cannot beat the market. You cannot. 96, 98% of active fund managers at that time, they're much less now, do not beat the market. You put your money in the S&P 500 and it just grows. So at this point, I got to read a statement about financial advice.
This is not financial advice. It is just entertainment from a dude with an opinion who went to Wharton for two years and studied a lot of finance. But don't take this as financial advice because who, why would you take financial advice from YouTube?
That's stupid. That's stupid. But look, financial advisors are not there to give you the best financial advice. They are there to make money.
Venture capitalists are not there to give you good financial advice or to be a good founder. They are there to make money and it's an agency problem. They are oftentimes the places that we go to try and do things. are not there to enable us to do things.
If Tinder or any other dating app finds you a wife, they lose money. And you are not on that app anymore. If Mar... Facebook Marketplace helps you find the exact thing you're looking for and you get off.
Facebook Marketplace, they do not make money. They are not incentive to get you to the place where you are best. Same with financial advisors.
They are there to make money from you. So this Wharton professor gets up there and he says, Look, your best bet, your best bet is to put your money. into the U.S. stock market, into high-yield securities.
So these are the S&P 500, something like that. You can do an overall market or so on, but put it in. Keep putting it in. Buy on the high, buy on the low, and just let it rip. Let it soar.
You cannot beat that stock investing portfolio over the long term. And if you don't believe me... me, Warren Buffett in 2008, no, early 2000s, made a bet with the hedge funds.
Hedge funds were big, big, big, big, big. And these guys were PhD mathematics and physics people. And they, you know, their whole thing is to make money in the market with really crazy algorithms and private equity or whatever.
And he said, he put up a million dollars and he said, I will put this money into a low load or no load. low fee mutual fund, which basically means it's not managed. It matches market.
So it's an S&P fund. Vanguard has a couple of these. All of them do now.
Vanguard kind of started it in the 70s. But you put your money into that and it will grow 90% of the time over 30 years at about 7% to 10%. So that's been true over the past 100 years.
Sometimes it goes up. Sometimes it goes down, but just forget about it. Don't do active trading. Active trading, you will lose money more times than not.
And I bet you, I bet you, you're screaming at the screen. Some of you screaming at the screen or listening in your car and you're like, no, you can make lots of money in the market. You got to just buy low, sell high. Sure. But even the professional fund managers, the high 90% don't make money compared to the high 90%.
to just match to market. S&P 500. Just put it in and let it go. Now, who do you hear about? You hear about the gamblers, Bitcoin, crypto, you know, stocks to the moon.
What was the thing? GameStop a few years ago. You hear about those guys that put in some money and for whatever reason, and then some stock goes crazy, right?
They do a Hail Mary pass into some stock. and it goes bananas. Okay. Yeah.
And you hear about lottery winners too. And every gambler says that they make money in Vegas. This is not the norm.
This is not your median person making money, buying and selling stocks, day trading, whatever. They will lose money on the average and well above the average into the 90th percentile. So the best of the best, only the top three 3-5% make any money compared to putting it in the S&P 500. So Warren Buffett, he bets these guys a million dollars that they'll go to charity, that his investments into a mutual fund in the S&P 500 will beat any algorithm that they can come up with.
And so they did. And there are many mutual funds that are...... many hedge funds that took them up on the bet and they all lost.
They all lost. There was one that was looking really good up until the end, about two years before the end of the 10 years, and then they lost. They got...
creamed. Warren Buffett came ahead 10 years, put it in the S&P 500, and he won. He won against the best minds in the industry.
And he took the million dollars and gave it to charity. Great. But it's a great lesson that this guy just puts his money where his mouth is.
Now, Warren Buffett, he's made a lot of his wealth in the beginning on just a couple. of trades, right? He goes big and just a couple of companies have made him the most money.
So why is this the best investment strategy? It's to protect against things like NVIDIA. So NVIDIA... if I asked you three years ago, what stock should I buy? I guarantee you, you didn't say Nvidia.
I guarantee you, you didn't say Nvidia. I'm sure there's that one guy like, oh, I knew it. I knew it. it was going to the moon and I invented Velcro and the question mark, whatever. I guarantee you, you did not say NVIDIA.
So the whole point of putting it into a match to market thing, mutual fund, is just to get the upside of NVIDIA without the downsides of putting your money into NFTs, right? So you'll... If you're a match to market, if you're in the S&P 500, yes, NVIDIA is in there in the proportion of its size, which is now $3.3 trillion.
And when it goes up, you win. Let me tell you, the market is rigged to make money. It's called the S&P 500 because it's the 500 largest companies on the market. Okay?
So you think about that, when a company's doing well and growing fast, that market cap gets big. Nvidia or Google, Apple, whatever. But when it does and it starts going down, it gets taken out of the S&P 500 and replaced by a company that's doing well and growing and getting a big size. So it is rigged to increase in value.
And because we have the banking system with a interest rate that every company has to overcome in their profitability. That's why we need infinite growth in capitalism because of banking rates. If we didn't have an interest rate on bank loans, which is possible. wasn't always like that. But if we didn't have that, companies would not need to continue growing.
So the reason they need to continue growing is because the discounted cash flow, the effect of interest rates brings inflation. And so your money is worth less in the future than it is today. So you better make use of your money now and make more and more of it so you can overcome that inflation.
and the interest rates that you have to pay. And modeling that's called the discounted cash flow. And every company has to do this.
And it depends on what their cost of capital is. So, you know, NVIDIA now has trillions, literally trillions of dollars that they could sell their own stock and get a ton of money. Their capital costs are almost zero. But for any other company, right, they have to borrow or they use stock. And that all has a cost.
And it's related to inflation. And the... amount that they pay for interest. So it's rigged.
It's rigged to make money. They all have to get above inflation to make money. The stock owners own that company.
So the benefit goes back to the stockholders. So if you own stock in those companies, a broad range of it, you get the benefit of them all beating inflation and beating the cost of capital. And you get the benefit of diversification.
So... if and when NVIDIA goes crashing back down to earth like pets.com or GameStop, you're good. You're fine because there are lots of other companies that are in there that keep beating the cost of capital.
That's what you want to do. That's why they go up. So very simple explanation.
This is not financial advice. This is just fun, dumb entertainment. But financial advisors won't tell you this because they make no money on it.
They make... no money by telling you to just, hey, you know what? You don't need me.
Go to Vanguard, buy the S&P 500, and forget about it for about 30 years, and you're good. And you think, you might think, oh, but I want to make a ton of money in the stock market. Okay, good luck with that. There are some people that have done that, right? We call them lucky.
We call them lucky. The other thing that I learned in Wharton, I can only hold two. or three things in my head at one time, was that it has been shown time and time and time again that the stock market is a random walk. So if you know statistics, you know a random walk has no pattern. And everybody talks about, oh, there's patterns in September, there's patterns in, you know, the market goes down in September, goes up in, you know, crashes in October, goes up in...
It's a random walk. If you invest today, you have no idea what the future is. You don't.
You don't. Now, there are techniques of buying momentum. So you buy momentum.
as it's going up and sell as it starts going down. But that's very, very tricky. And, you know, if you can do it computerized, that's fine.
But that's very tricky because you have to predict when the momentum is going up and when it's going down. that and get out quickly. Very difficult.
Most people lose money doing that. So what do they do after that? They write books on how to do it and then and make courses on how to do day trading.
If they were making so much money day trading, they'd just be doing day trading. They're not going to sell you a course doing day trading or Amazon fulfillment or any of this stuff. They're playing you. They're playing you.
Financial advisors. Great, good, happy we have them, right? They'll advise you things. The good ones will advise you on things like how to split your stock versus bond portfolio as you get closer to retirement because you want more of a steady income if you're going to rely on that money as you get into retirement. Okay, that's good.
That's good. But you know stocks have volatility. They all do. They all go up and down.
And people play on this. But the other thing, the third thing that I learned... at Wharton was that volatility is not your friend. It can be, but it's a violent force.
So if a stock goes up 10% and then goes down 10%, you will lose money. It goes up 10%, down 10%, up 10%, down 10%, up 10%, down 10%. You're going down, right?
Think about it. If a stock's worth $100, it goes up 10%, you're at 110. Then it goes... down 10%. 10% of 110 is 11. So now you're at 99. So even if you go back up, you know, now you are below, you went up 10, you went down 10, you are now 1%. You've just lost 1% of your wealth.
Simple as that. So that's what volatility does to you. But you don't have to worry about that. In the stock market, it is a pretty... Open market, open system, all the information is there, presumably, except for our congresswomen and men that trade on insider trading, allegedly.
But you put your money in there and it is rigged to go up. Everybody wants that money to go up. So they make it in such a way that it's going to go up.
So own stocks, own a broad set of... of stocks. Put it in. Don't worry about when you're putting it in.
Time in the market is better than timing the market. You cannot time the market. It is a random walk.
So buy when it's high, buy when it's low, buy when it's going up, going down, because you don't know if that high is going to lead to another high. That's what happened in 2022. It happened in so many bull runs where it gets high and everybody's like, whoa, it's a lot of money. I'm not. shouldn't buy now, but it keeps going up because it's rigged to go up. It is set up to go up.
So just buy. So NVIDIA, now worth more than Apple. Is that rational?
I would say no. Apple has a huge range of products for a large consumer base. NVIDIA makes graphics chips. Huh. And GPUs.
that kind of thing. Cool, useful if you're doing graphics or doing AI and machine learning, which is basically, you know, it's the same operation. The reason why it's the same, it's linear algebra.
So it's basically big matrices with zeros and ones in them and, or other, you know, or floating points that you can multiply to get an end result. So graphics you. uses this and machine learning uses this, coincidentally. That's why those GPUs are so valuable to AI. When they should be graphics processors, you know, instead of the matrix, it's just a, you know, like X by Y group of boxes, instead of that representing your television screen or your monitor, it's representing a, you know, a large set.
of machine learning. Neuronet. That's it. And then you do, you know, multiplication and so on and algebraic, linear algebra on it. And it comes out.
That's all. That's why. But... Is it worth more than Apple? Well, you know, it is now.
It is now. Doesn't matter. Will it be worth more than Apple in five years?
You don't know. I don't know. And that's the point. That's really the point.
Is that that market... can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. You can think it's gonna crash and it won't crash.
You can think it's gonna go up higher and it goes lower. And if you just diversify, just spit your money into the market and just wait, you're doing fine. Now that said, all these financial advisors that are not financial advisors on YouTube, they are just entertainment like myself. They're telling you how to get rich over time and all of this and and and you know they're telling you to put your money in the market and it'll grow to a million dollars by the time you're 60. Now like if I'm 22 I'm and when I was 22. I'm looking at that and I'm like, screw that.
Why would I waste my life putting all my money in the market so that I have money when I'm 60? It's better to have money when you're 22 and you can go do things with the money. So there's a balance, right? But of course, you want to save for retirement, maybe. But those are not your best years.
When you're 60, 70, 80 years old, you're slow. You end up not spending so much money at all. I already feel it in my own life.
I spend much less money now than I did when I was 30 or 40. I blew through money. I spent $2,700 one night on shots at a shop bar, buying people for hours. There's another video on that.
Stupid, stupid stuff. I don't. don't regret any of it.
$15,000 on a trip to Japan with my kids, don't regret any of it. That's the time to spend money. When you got the health, you have a bit of wealth, and you can do it.
All these guys, they don't make the money on the stock market. Graham Stephan didn't make his money on the stock market. He made it in real estate, and then on YouTube telling you how to make money, but he didn't make money.
in those ways. He did just, it's just real estate, just real estate. He got his license when he was 18 or something, and then, and then bought and sold houses. He did something that actually has value to the market. And then he puts his money into, into mutual funds and, and, you know, whatever he's doing and in the bank that he invested in, that's now in all kinds of legal problems.
Oops. I like the guy. He seems, he seems super nice, but ouch.
Anyway, you're not going to get rich putting your money into a mutual fund. That is not the point. But on compounded interest, where you just put it in, leave it, and reinvest everything that comes, that's a good strategy. It's a good strategy for your own IRA. It's a good strategy for your own securities investments.
Just let it go. Let it go and forget about it. Don't even look at it.
In all of this, you got to consider the relationship between money and happiness. Money will not make you happy. Having no money makes you very unhappy. So have some money. Do something that adds value to the marketplace.
Do something that you enjoy. joy and makes you some money, that's great. That's actually, I just went through a long career doing that and it's been wonderful. You got some money to do stuff, makes you very happy. But if you 10x that money after you can pay for food and a roof over your head.
your head and something fun to do. If you 10x that, 100x, 1000x, you're not going to get much happier. In fact, you're not going to get happy at all.
It asymptotes. It just flattens out. So keep that in mind.
There are much more important things than making a boatload of money. And even though YouTube is going to tell you like that's the goal, it's not. It really doesn't.
You look at people on their deathbed. They're not talking about how much money they made. It's useless.
It's nothing. It could be made from... you know, out of nothing and it goes to nothing. It's the relationships they have with their friends and their family. It's the meaning that they pull into life.
And how ready they are for death. That's an important part. So look, it's fun to watch the market.
It's fun to see NVIDIA go to the moon. It's crazy. I didn't invest in it, but I don't invest in it.
individual stocks. But wow, it's coming down. Maybe, maybe, maybe, maybe. Certainly the hype over AI is coming down.
Maybe, maybe, maybe. It's not AGI, maybe. But cool, cool. If you're in the S&P 500, as I am, you benefited from that whole rise. So good.
So I hope you're having a great day. Hope you're really enjoying life. It's a beautiful day here. So I'm going to go out, ride my motorbike around and enjoy it.
And I will see you on the next one. Bye. Thank