Transcript for:
Grok 4 and AI Progress

Let me tell you the biggest story of the day. And I think it is the biggest story possibly of all mankind as of today. It's going to change rapidly. I don't know if anybody did. Did either of you guys watch the Elon Musk thing last night? No, I I did watch a few minutes of it. Okay. Did you, Jason? No, sure didn't. Okay. So, the XAI team was there um to unveil Gro 4. This is the latest artificial intelligence system. And let me be very very clear. Last night was not your typical tech launch. This is a moment that demands everyone's full attention. We are now at the crossroads where promise and peril are going to collide. Okay. I have explained to you for years uh AGI, AI, AGI and ASI. Narrow intelligence is what we've always had. General intelligence is the next step. And that is it's better than man. One one you know like Grock can do everything that you can do better than you can do. Okay. And then there's super intelligence. ASI artificial super intelligence. That's when things get really really creepy. when you hit AGI, the road to ASI could be overnight. Okay, we need to understand uh what's at stake here because Grock 4 brought us closer to that second stage than ever before. Grock 4 is a powerhouse. They demonstrated it last night. It surpasses the expertise of PhD level scholars in all fields. It can get 100% on any any test for any field. Mathematics, physics, engineering, you name it. This is not a search engine. This is a system that tackles problems so intricate they they go beyond our existing knowledge base. Okay, let's say there is let's say we have a fusion reactor and the magnetic containment system goes down. I don't even know what I'm talking about at this point, but it goes down and the top minds all on Earth are like, I don't know what to do. Gro 4 can step in, model the physics, design new material, stabilize the system, and avert catastrophe. And it can do it about that fast. Now, this is the capability that Musk says is just around the corner. Mark my words, you know, how many how many years did I say between 2027 and 2030 we would start to see this? Oh, a million times. That was always the window that I remember. Yeah. Yeah. Always the window. And everybody, even Ray Kerszswwell said, "Oh, that's way too that's way too optimistic. Maybe 20 2050." And then people started going 2040 and then 2030. Grock shows us 2026 or 2027 is when we're going to hit it. This is the last year that we have before things get really weird. Okay. last night, Elon Musk is touting this this AI and and all of the solutions. And then he says probably three times something like this, and I'm quoting, this is one of them. It's somewhat unnerving to have created intelligence that's greater than our own. He then goes on to call it terrifying twice. Now, this is a man who's launched rockets, you know, into orbit, uh, going to Mars, and he says twice, you know, after he sees the results of it, he says, you know, it's really in a way quite terrifying to see what it's doing, but we just have to make sure that it remains good. Oh, okay. All right. Sure. Now, the key point in the announcement was the mention of ARC AGI. I had never heard of ARC a AGI. Had no idea what it was, but I noticed AGI and I'm like, uh-oh, that sounds important. So, this is the gold uh the gold standard, the benchmark testing for artificial general intelligence. Okay, as I've said before, AGI, artificial general intelligence, is a machine that matches all human cognition across all domains, reasoning, creativity, problem solving, not just specialized tasks like playing Go or analyzing X-rays, everything. For instance, Musk said by mid next year to the latest end of year next year, it will be able to create a fulllength movie just from a text prompt and do it all at once. So, in other words, it'll say create a movie and you just explain The Godfather. It will do the casting. It will do the writing. It will do the the filming, if you will. uh it will uh score the music and it will happen that fast almost in real time. We are nowhere near the computational power now to do that separately but this will do it all at once. It will make a movie with all of it simultaneously. So the arc AGI system is the benchmark on how close are we to AGI. Remember, scary things happen at AGI. Terrifying things happen at ASI. ASI could be a matter of hours or days after we hit AGI. Gro 4 scored 16.2% on the ARC AGI scale. Why is that important? You're like, "Oh, well, they're only 16% away." because last time it barely broke 8%. And that they took that test uh last time with Grock 3 and it took us forever to get to 8%. Now what is it a year later we're at 16%. Remember these things are not linear. The next time we could be at 32, we might be at 64. We are on the verge. This is the last year of I can't believe I'm saying this of normaly. Okay, this year is we're going to look back at this year in probably two years ago. Gosh, you remember the good old days when everything was normal and you could understand everything. This is how close we are. this everything you and I talked about last night, Stu, uh about what we're doing uh in January make put does it make it even more critical that that happens like oh I don't know right now? Yeah, for sure. Um you are going to need to know your values, your ethics, your rights. You're going to need to know absolutely everything. Now Gro 4 is not true AGI yet. It lacks the full autonomy and the generalized reasoning of a human mind, but it is the closest that we have come. It's a system that can adapt, innovate at a level that outpaces specialized AIs by a wide margin. This is a milestone. This is not a destination, but it it's something that should jolt everybody awake. So, here's what's coming in the next six months. by December 2025, that's this Christmas, December 2025, he believes Musk that Gro 4 will drive through breakthroughs in material sciences. So, in other words, imagine a new brand new alloy that is lighter than aluminum, stronger than steel, and it revolutionizes aerospace and everything else. Or a drug that halts Alzheimer's progression tailored to a patient's DNA. Grock will drive breakthroughs through material science. So, brand new brand new materials that nobody's ever thought of. Pharmaceuticals that we never thought could be made and chemical engineering putting together chemicals that no man has ever thought that's going to happen by December. Imagine a chemical compound that makes carbon capture economically viable. the the climate change stuff that's over. It will be over because this will solve that. These are not fantasies. This is Grock 4. Um Musk said something I never thought. He said he believes within the next year by 2027 Gro 4 will uncover new physical laws. So that will rewrite the understanding our understanding of the entire universe that there will come new you know like there's gravity hey you know what there's another law here that you never thought of wait what that he says will come by 2027 this is going to accelerate human discovery at an unprecedented scale I told you at some point I said by 2030 it might be a little earlier than that things are going to be happening at such a fast rate, you're not going to be able to keep up with them. And it will accelerate to the point to where you won't even understand what all of this means or what the ramifications are. Are you there yet? In 6 months, Grock 4 could invol evolve into a system that dwarfs human expertise in economics, defense, all of it. Now, again, it's a bit terrifying to quote uh Elon Musk. Why? Because we don't know what else comes with this. This is like an alien life form. We have no idea what to predict what it will be capable of, how it will view us when we are ants to its intellect. Okay, it is a tool, but it is also Pandora's box. it. Gro 4 is the biggest step towards AGI and maybe one of the last steps to AGI. My feeling is what I've been saying forever 2027 to 2030. I am leaning more to the 2027 uh now because of this announcement last night. We are on the verge of AGI and everything in human existence changing overnight. And as Musk said himself two times, it's terrifying. We should act like it is terrifying or risk losing the control of the future that we're all trying to build. That's the biggest story of the day, I think, in my opinion.