Overview
Today's market update discussed new all-time highs, volatile earnings from Tesla and Google, key economic and political developments, and highlighted trading setups and actionable levels for several stocks. The video emphasized adaptability and risk management in response to recent market euphoria and shifting institutional versus retail activity.
Market Highlights and News
- Stock market reached new all-time highs, but caution is advised due to ongoing volatility.
- Institutional investors continue selling while retail traders are net buyers, fueling market gains.
- A major $550 billion US-Japan trade deal and progress in US-EU tariff agreements contributed to bullish sentiment.
- Retail trading euphoria is reflected in call options now making up 68% of all options volume, the highest since 2021.
Tesla Earnings Recap and Analysis
- Tesla reported a double miss: EPS of $0.40 vs $0.43 expected and revenue of $22.5B vs $22.74B expected.
- Shares are down 18% year-to-date with negative sentiment due to declining sales and political factors.
- Key levels: Watch $323 for downside breakdown and $338.50 for potential upside; $300 is a psychological support level.
Google Earnings Recap and Analysis
- Google beat both EPS and revenue expectations, with EPS up 14% and revenue up 7% year-over-year.
- Volatility spiked after announcing higher-than-expected capital expenditures ($85B vs $73–75B expected).
- Filling a prior gap up to $200 is possible if positive momentum continues.
Economic and Political Developments
- US-Japan deal includes 15% reciprocal tariffs and a large investment, with most profits returning to the US.
- US-EU negotiations point toward 15% tariffs with certain exemptions, supporting market optimism.
- White House released the "Winning the AI Race" action plan, outlining 90+ federal AI policy actions favoring innovation and deregulation.
Key Levels and Trading Setups
- SPY broke out above previous all-time highs; critical support/resistance at $631.50, $632.75–633, and $635.
- Notable meme stock movements (Open Door, Kohl’s, Krispy Kreme, GoPro) indicate retail-driven euphoria.
- Risk of volatility remains high if trade deals stall or reverse.
Stock Setups and Momentum Plays
- CWEB: 2x China internet ETF, bullish off recent support and double top break.
- Pony AI: Watching $15.75 for breakout after significant recent pullback.
- OXY: Bullish setup, targets $46–48 with stop under $43.60.
- AMD: Watching for breakout above $160 after 107% run since April.
- Bookmap tool recommended for tracking order flow and key levels.
- Momentum plays:
- NNE (Nano Nuclear Energy): Upside if $37.25 breaks.
- BBAI (Big Bear AI): Upside if $8 breaks.
- UBR (Uber): Downside if below $89.50.
Big Money Trade Highlight
- DLO: $1.3M in-the-money call options bought for Nov 2025 expiry, indicating bullish sentiment and uptrend potential, with resistance targets at $11.80–$12.
Trading Strategies and Advice
- Emphasize adaptability, stop-losses, and clear trade rationale amid rapidly shifting sentiment.
- Avoid excessive bias and be prepared to change direction if market conditions shift.
- Participate in educational resources and communities for sustainable trading habits.
Action Items
- Tomorrow – All Traders: Monitor Tesla at key support/resistance levels ($323, $300, $338.50).
- Tomorrow – All Traders: Watch Google for further gap fill upward toward $200 if momentum holds.
- Tomorrow – All Traders: Track SPY support/resistance at $631.50, $632.75–633, and $635.
- Tomorrow – All Traders: Observe momentum stocks (NNE, BBAI, UBR) at specified technical levels for breakout or breakdown opportunities.
- TBD – All Traders: Review upcoming earnings (Intel, Newmont, American Airlines, Blackstone) for new setups.
- TBD – All Traders: Keep abreast of policy headlines, especially on AI and tariff deals, for potential rapid market moves.