America vs. China: A Thought Experiment on Military Power

Introduction

• Rising global tensions between America and China
• China's ambitions to become a superpower
• America's current leading position
• Potential for a significant conflict affecting the world

Chapter 1: America vs China in Numbers

Economic Power

• America's GDP: $25 trillion
• China's GDP: $18 trillion

Military Spending

• America: $876 billion/yr (40% of world’s military spending)
• China: $291 billion/yr (official, potentially higher unofficially)

Military Personnel

• China's People's Liberation Army: 200,000 active members
• America: 130,000 total soldiers (Army, Navy, Air Force, Coast Guard)

Army Comparison

• China: 5,000 tanks
• America: 4,600 tanks
• Result: Equal power on land

Air Force Comparison

• China: 1,200 fighter jets, 913 helicopters
• America: 1,800 fighter jets, 5,700 helicopters
• Result: America leads in the air

Navy Comparison

• Submarines: China (60), America (60)
• Total Fleet: China (730), America (472)
• Result: China has a stronger fleet

Nuclear Warheads

• China: 410 warheads
• America: 5,224 warheads
• Result: America significantly ahead in nuclear capability

Cyber Warfare

• China's strength in cyber attack capabilities

Chapter 2: Potential War Scenarios

Geographic Constraints

• Distance: 11,300 km apart, no shared borders
• Plausible focus: Taiwan (Republic of China)

History and Alliances

• U.S. past defense agreements with Taiwan (Mutual Defence Treaty 1950-1979)
• Current ambiguous U.S. stance on defending Taiwan

China's Strategy

• Initial cyber attacks on US infrastructure
• Disruption of U.S. communication networks
• Attacks on U.S. military bases in Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines using missiles
• Importance of Taiwan for China (entry to Pacific Ocean, historical claims)

America's Response

• Economic sanctions using the power of the US dollar
• NATO alliance: Europe entering the conflict if America is attacked
• Support from allies: Japan, Australia, Canada, etc.
• Rapid Dragon Strategy: Converting cargo aircraft into weapon carriers

Chapter 3: America's Secret Weapons

Economic Sanctions

• Dependence of China on imported oil
• Impact on China if Gulf countries side with America

NATO and Global Alliances

• Article 5 of NATO: Any attack on a member is an attack on all
• China's potential economic isolation if Europe stops trade

Chapter 4: Conclusion

The Reality of Future Conflict

• Possibility of America and China at war within the next decade
• Xi Jinping’s target for China: Global-level military superpower by 2035

Implications for India

• Potential role as a counterbalance to China
• Historical perspective: South Korea vs. North Korea
• Current indicators such as American lawmakers' visits to Dalai Lama
• Importance of strategic decision-making and development for India's future

Final Thoughts

• Global geopolitical dynamics
• The necessity of understanding temporary interests over permanent allies