Lecture Notes on Trading Strategies and Market Analysis

Key Concepts and Strategies

• 15-Minute Fair Value Gap (FVG):

  • Plays inside a short 15-minute FVG.
  • Requires a new 15-minute structure to confirm direction.

• Critical Levels and Candles:

  • Importance of 5-minute candles closing bearish below key levels (e.g., 707).
  • Monitoring the 7 a.m. 5-minute FVG as crucial for the day's price movement.
  • Analyzing candle behavior for possible inversion to long positions or dumps.

• Market Movements:

  • Long positions indicated by breach of structure and market behavior.
  • Observations of trading positions appropriate for large accounts (e.g., 10.0, 50 contracts).
  • Impact of external factors like Trump speaking.

Trading Patterns and Indicators

• Inversion and Institutional Order Drill:

  • Inversion FVGs play a significant role in determining long positions.
  • Institutional order drills and their importance in market movements.

• Candle and Structure Analysis:

  • Emphasis on specific timeframes (e.g., 30 minutes, 4 hours) to confirm market trends.
  • Identifying wicks and full-blown long potential.

• Head and Shoulders Pattern: Retail Stops:

  • Noting the significance of head and shoulders patterns in market trends.
  • Retail stop strategies and their influence on market movement.

Predictions and Market Events

• Potential Long and Short Scenarios:

  • Conditions for a full-blown short versus long.
  • Importance of key percentage thresholds (e.g., 50% of CPI high).
  • Anticipated market actions based on prior analysis.

• Strategic Entry and Exit Points:

  • Importance of timing and precise candle observation (e.g., 8:11 on the 1-minute FVG).
  • Strategy of taking partials and managing stops based on market movements.

• Impact of News and External Factors:

  • Observations on how news (e.g., Trump speaking) affects trading decisions.
  • The role of market sentiment and news in shaping day trading outcomes.

Summary and Outcomes

• Day’s Trading Outcome:

  • Review of positions taken and rationale behind them.
  • Summary of profits, losses, and the decision-making process throughout the day.
  • Analysis of market behavior towards the end of trading sessions.

• Future Projections and Market Expectations:

  • Anticipation of high attacks on SPX and Nasdaq by the end of the week.
  • Ongoing market analysis and expected movements based on current trends.

These notes provide a comprehensive view of the trading strategies discussed, highlighting the importance of timing, structure analysis, and external influences on market behavior.