you got to be flipping my flapjacks what a week it was this week a new all-time high in the history of the public count here today I'm sure a lot of you guys are hitting all-time highs in your portfolio let me know in the comment section if you hit a new all-time high in your portfolio this week I would love to hear from you guys I'm sure a lot of you guys are hitting all-time highs wind Resorts up over 20% about 21% just in the past 5 days absolutely incredible move for wind Resorts Estee Lauder up a about 18.8% in the past five trading days these stocks have been thrown out and man are they coming back to life like the Undertaker paler Technologies huge this was a huge win in my opinion for paler this week this was definitely a week where paler was set up for potential downside now that the S&P 500 inclusion has actually happened you know you got to assume a lot of people have been playing that going into it obviously the stock was rallying hugee 21% in the past month and this was definitely a week that was setting up paler for big drop and we didn't even get it which is as good news as we could possibly get but folks a lot of people are saying it's about to get scary Halloween October it's about to get ugly folks okay A lot of people are saying stocks are going to go down big in October for many various reasons we're going to have an actual stock market crash that's going to occur in October so what I want to go through in this video is do we have the mixture do we have the ingredients do we have the potion to get a major stock market crash in October or is this just a buch and more of bare hype an excitement from them thinking they're going to get a crash and keep pushing it out pushing it out and October is going to be the month right we know on seasonality they have a they have a case seasonality many times can be very bad in October especially in election years so they have a case there but we're going to see do we actually have the ingredients to actually get the stock market to go down substantially in October and should we be looking at puts we got one trading day left in September so we'll be looking at put options for this month we're going to figure all that out in this video appreciate youall joining me as always hope you enjoy this very indepth video taking you through everything you got to look at for something like this appreciate yall being here listen I got a question for you are you subscribed to the channel if you're not you might want to hit that subscribe button number two are you in the smash Club if you're not in the smash Club you might want to consider joining today it's absolutely free to do so all it is you got to go down there and hit that like button it feels so good it feels so good to just hit that like button and it feels amazing got a brand new workshop well not brand new workshop it's about a month old now at this point in time created I believe it was last month seven things to do when stocks are crashing it's free workshop for you guys I'll put that as pin comment down there today in case the market does tank in October at least you know what to do I've been through three stock market crashes in my life great financial crisis when I got started the Rona crash and then the 2022 crash which was vicious for the NASDAQ it was down about 37% in less than 12 months and then I also been through a lot of you know decent Siz Corrections including the end of 2018 anybody remember the end of 2018 crash we were on Pace for the worst December since the Great Depression it was a horrible man that was that was rough but anyways uh yeah that should definitely help you out immensely make sure you grab that before today's video is over it's uh pin comment down there today I don't shout it out much anymore but I thought it would be appropriate kind of free workshop for you guys on a day like today okay so let's get into this first ingredient we got a big bad Boogeyman and his name is inflation now this big bad Boogeyman he's kind of been going dormant like he's kind of been going dormant now at this point in time right but will the big bag Bo man of inflation which is what really caused the stock market to tank in 2022 right inflation went so high the FED had to raise rates aggressively it obviously hurt the economy it certainly hurt a lot of company earnings a lot of big Tech was over hired they had to fire a lot of folks and then they got back on the right track starting in 2023 and in 2024 right but could we have inflation problems that lead to the stock market to let's say have a major dip or crash in October well just today we got out some new data here the pce price index a measure the FED focuses on to measure the cost of goods and services in the US economy Rose .1% for the month putting the 12-month inflation rate at 2.2% excluding food and energy core pce Rose .1% in August that was up about 2.7% from a year ago the all items inflation gauge was below Wall Street estimates and the lowest since early 2021 this was horrible news for the Bears here today the Bears needed this this report to come in hot meaning essentially they needed inflation to be coming in you know worse than expected they needed that they were hoping for that they were banking on that and so the fact that inflation came in tame that's not good for the Bears at all they needed this to come in Hut because if this came in Hut then that would send basic get signal that the FED cannot continue to lower rates at 50 basis points they got to slow the process right and um that would lead potentially the market to sell off so a lot of bearers were banking that oh this this report's going to come in really hot I don't know what they were banking off of other than hope because there was really nothing you had to Bank off of that this was going to come in this report was going to come in very hot there was no data that would have shown like oh yeah this is why this report's going to come in super hot it was just basically hope and kind of prey approach in regards to the Bears and that's what they did here and um clear that's that's certainly not not working out here right now we might want to look further than that so let's look at Commodities well here's a deal this is GSG everybody should track this if you have any sort of you know stock tracker app or whatever on your phone or on your computer everybody should always keep track of GSG GSG is going to let you know if you got big inflation problems coming down the line or not really because this keeps track of overall Commodities Commodities are asleep this is the past month for Commodities down 2.2% so we don't have any sort of major commodity inflation that all a su's going to hit in October and everybody's going to say oh my gosh this is this is insane this is such a problem so we don't have that if we look at oil Futures is also the price of gasoline going to cause everybody to freak out no look at this this is on a one Monon basis the price of oil is down 12% 12% this is what we call 6 ft deep and it's in the coffin at this point in time right could come back to life next year that is something to be aware of for next year but in terms of in the short term in October gas prices is that going to be some sort of big issue nope not whatsoever if we look at true flation numbers which I trust true inflation numbers more than the government data but when we look at true inflation numbers we're at a CPI right now about 1.5% in US Government numbers recently which are very backwards looking are around 2.5% so inflation's dead completely dead at this point in time right if we think about housing inventory on housing is going up and up and up I'm seeing it more and more I keep track of Phoenix in Las Vegas specifically I'm seeing inventory go up more I think these numbers are going to be up even more in September and if you have more and more inventory coming online I can tell you that's not going to be great for for price increases so in my opinion I think we're still kind of setting up for either a deflationary environment when it comes to housing and rents or very flattish but we're not in the we're not set up for like some sort of big Skyrocket in the short term in regards to this two years from now four years now that's could be a totally different story but we're just thinking about the very short term not not we're not setting up for that at all right if we look at mortgage rates we're still insanely High when it comes to mortgage rates we're still 6% plus which is insanely high for any time in really the past 15 years you go understand everybody has been Pro programmed for basically the past 15 years to expect a 2.5% to 4.5% mortgage rate when you're at 6% plus you're not going to magically make everybody go out there and want to buy homes and so this is why you could continue to see inventory pile up in the housing market and why you're set up more likely for a deflationary environment in housing for the next 12 months then inflationary so if you're thinking about remember we're thinking about October specifically and the stock market crash we're going to happen October right okay do is housing going to be an issue no it just doesn't set up for to be an issue at all if inventory was going much lower and we had you know if we had mortgage rates at 4.5% right now I'd say oo man maybe we get some housing inventory housing inflation numbers that people aren't too too happy with but we don't have it so if we think about it we don't have the ingredients we do not have the ingredients for inflation to go insane in October and cause some sort of dramatic worry and concern from the market about oh inflation's back or inflation's coming back and you better watch out you better not cry you better go not buy anything inside I mean that's just not realistic right so inflation that boogey man he's asleep next one up here earning season earning season could always be a catalyst to send the market much lower right and we do have earning season it will be kicking off in guess what month October so you could look at earning season and say oh boy that's where our problems will come in when the earnings start hitting they're going to be bad well earnings start out with the banks the big Banks listen a lot of these big Banks just went where at a conference about a month ago and from what we heard from a lot of these big Banks it's not a lot of scary there's not a lot of scary talk and so if you're thinking we're going to get some magical scary talk some horrible numbers from JP Morgan and Bank of America and Wells Fargo and all these companies it doesn't look like it yet could could have happened maybe the following quarter or the following quarter the sure that's always but we're talking about this month we're talking about October are these companies guidance going to be some horrible guidance numbers um that is going to freak the market out big time probably not just to be quite Frank the banks are pretty well in in a pretty good position I think the most one of the most knowledgeable people that are not a banker right uh but knows the banking space insanely well is is a gentleman from The Big Short movie right Steve eisan he's gone on CNBC several times in the past few months and I think he knows the banking system way better than I do or anybody watching this video does or more than 99.99999% of people out there right and Steve eisan says there's really no issues with the banks they're not exciting stocks to buy and he's like I wouldn't buy them cuz they're not exciting but he's like there's no issues with the banking system whatsoever they're just going to kind of keep reporting their numbers here in the short term that they're going to be just fine I think once again that man is more knowledgeable in the big Banks than anybody and when he comes out and says you know there's really nothing going on there plus you get the confirmation from the the big Bank CEOs you got to take it for what it is right doesn't mean there can't be problems a year from now or two years from now but for right now there's nothing and so if you're banking that these earnings are going come in horrible for the banks to start out earning season that might be end up being a very very tough betet to take that right then you say well what about the other companies well here's the deal we're not going to get the other big the real companies that really matter for the stock market who are they they're big Tech they're Tesla they're Microsoft they're Apple they Google Nvidia meta Amazon all those sorts of companies right those are all the big dogs that matter Salesforce you go down the whole list well here's a deal we're not really going to get those company earnings into until the end of October going into November really from basically the last week in October through November that's when we'll get a lot of those company numbers so if you're banking that you know big Tech's going to send the market lower which by the way big Tech numbers should be pretty dang good so I wouldn't be banking that big Tech's going to report some disastrous numbers and guidance just be a little careful about that especially we're in election season spending big on Google and and uh and meta you know I just would be a little careful about trying to bet heavy against big Tech but even if you did think big Tech's going to report trash numbers uh we're not going to get those numbers likely in October we're likely getting them in November or the very end of October right so I think it's a tough bet to think earnings are going to destroy the market when we're likely not even going to have the big earnings that you really want until like the end of October November and like I said the only ones that could really tank the market are the big Banks and I just don't know if the big Banks numbers and guidance are really going to be something that's going to be like oh my gosh everybody's going to freak out and sell the whole stock market cuz Bank earnings it just doesn't look like it's that sort of setup for right now at least right so that's when it comes to earnings then you say well what about sentiment could we have sentiment tank in October sentiment has been riding High we can't deny that nearly 50% of stock market participants are bullish on the market for the next 6 months very very bullish now there's two ways we can look at this one we can say way well this is way too bullish this needs to be more bearish and so therefore because we're way we're way over the historical average for bullish we way under the historical average for bearishness here right so you could say sentiment needs to come down big time we that this is more proof that the market needs to tank and you know if we all a sudden get get investors start going the other way we can get it going fast well yes but in order to tank sentiment you've got to have some sort of fundamental problems that really tank sentiment right that then can tank the market so it needs to be like inflation's going high the fed's not going to continue to cut rates or they're going to raise rates or or earnings are super bad or unemployment's going you need to have something there you can't just have sentiment go bad for no reason it has to be reasons right so you could look at it but you could look at it from that negative angle of like well we need to go more bearish so this is just naturally going to go more bearish but an additional way we can kind of look at this is if you're this far bullish it's going to take you a while to even get investors to start feeling bearish about the market it is not going to H magically happen in a matter of a few weeks it's going to potentially take months to get folks from the bullish side over to the bearish side right and so that's just another thing that you could look at and it's like it's it's hard to really see the market going down substantially in October based upon sentiment there right then you say the election well guess what that could potentially tank sentiment but that's not till November so we're not getting those results this month or excuse me not this month we're still I'm still recording this in September in October the month that everybody thinks the Market's going to tank right we're to we're not getting those results then we're getting in November so this could tank sentiment I I'll be honest with you guys if the election is too far on one side or the other what do I mean by that if if one party seizes control too much of the house and the Senate and let's say uh you know becomes president the market could go into a big sentiment problem in regards to that the biggest worry for the market is that that Harris would win and it would kind of be like Dems would just dominate this this election essentially that would that would definitely cause a market to uh I'm just going to be honest with you guys have a problems in the sentiment that's not the belief that's what's going to happen though there's a belief that things are going to kind of be split up and you're kind of going to end up in gridlock in Washington which is actually what the stock market wants so stock market wants big investors want hedge fund money wants they want gridlock so they don't actually care that much who wins who becomes president where there t- man or Homan I I don't even know if that's a that's a weird thing but whatever they don't really care as far as that goes what they really care about they want gridlock and if you listen to a lot of these big wall streeters that's what they're talking about they want gridlock and that's what they also expect but if you didn't get that then you could talk about sentiment tanking but once again we're not getting that in October so if you're banking on this October stock market crash that's tough you know could you get a November stock Mark crash yeah if the election goes one way people might freak out and so stocks heavy but we're not getting that this month right then you say well maybe we'll get big margin calls maybe we're out of control when it comes to margin stock we saw investors are insanely bullish insanely bullish they're not feeling that fearful out there and so when you have a lot of people feeling very bullish and not very many people fearing that bearish you could have margin problems right well what does the data say around this okay well if we look actually recently we actually went down in regards to how much money is is is basically out on margin which is phenomenal news if you're really worried about like margin calls and those sorts of things cuz stock markets hit new all-time highs this week with margin over the past month at least being actually down that's like ideal that's an ideal situation now additionally if we look here right uh we're basically lower when it comes to amount of of margin out there we're lower than we were 3 plus years ago if we go back here to this is December 2021 at about $910 billion of margin outstanding versus Under 800 here recently and if we go back to February 2021 $813 billion on margin for $797 so the margin numbers I'll just be quite Frank with you guys it doesn't set up for some sort of Margin Call epic situation where everybody's getting Margin Call left and right now if we look back to the great financial crisis I would almost guarantee you 99% of you guys watch this video you've never seen one I'm showing you right now okay this is big time I'm showing you the data on how much margin was outstanding prior to the great financial crisis and then in the great financial crisis and so if we look here guess what margin debt hit an all-time high right before the great financial crisis this was literally the top of the stock market in ' 07 the stock market hit a top in 07 in the summer okay and uh right around July and right then we had margin debt outstanding alltime highs all all time highs and then we had alltime well I don't say alltime lows but multi-year lows right here in the bottom of the market so that's fascinating right the bottom of the market you have all you have multi-year lows for margin debt outstanding and then right before the the crash happened you had all-time highs in regards to margin debt outstanding so we're not in that situation right which is makes you feel rather comfortable if we were at a trillion plus right now in margin debt you you should be much more concerned about margin calls hitting because that would be a little scary right but we're not even remotely close to all-time highs in regards to margin debt we could get there 6 months from now a year from now that would make me very concerned but we're not there right now and keep in mind the stock market's much higher today than it was back in these sorts of times like look at look at where the Dow was back in February 2021 look at where the S&P 500 was look at where the NASDAQ was back here versus now it's substantially higher now and we still have substantially less margin debt outstanding which means the Margin Call scenario not super realistic for right now at least right so I like that that that setup as far as that very good now you say recession what if the recession talking amps up that could bring sentiment down in a major way right everybody starts talking about recession recession recession recession well here's the deal in regards to the recession talk uh this would not be something new we the recession talks been ongoing and ongoing and ongoing they beat it to death right they talk more and more about margin debt and margin or not margin debt recession talk recession talk right over and over and over again and not only that this has been talked since 2018 literally we've had consistent recession talk since 2018 now at the end of 2018 everybody's talking about recession 2019 same thing 2020 it actually happened but a lot of people don't count that as a real recession why because it was government shutdowns and they did the big stimulus pump blah blah blah so lot people don't even look at that as a recession then we had 2022 obviously all the recession talk there we had a recession but they didn't call it a recession cuz they like to change the rules as we go whatever then 2023 recession talk 2024 this year nothing but recession talk recession talk at some point in time people are just going to get more and more immune to even recession talk right and at some point they're going to stop caring by the way when that when they do when everybody does stop caring about the recession or stops talking about it that's when it's actually going to happen just so you're aware uh but for right now everybody's still talking about but like just over time even if people talk about recession in October they're just going to drown it out cuz they've been talking about that it's nothing new they've been talking about this again and again and again and again so people are just like whatever whatever you know it's just what ends up happening right unemployment rate is an unemployment rate likely to Skyrocket in October uh not super realistic in terms of that right so I mean could we see the unemployment rate go up to 4.3 or 4.4% sure we were just at what 4.3 or 4.4 not that long ago just a month ago so it's a potential but then after that you go into holiday season right and you start hitting those holiday season numbers all the seasonal jobs so ah man that's that's tough to really that's that's a tough bank that's all I'm going to say about that it's tough to bank on unemployment rate skyrocketing in the short term could unemployment rate go up over the next year that's a possibility but is it going to magically go up so much in the next month it's going to cause a stock market to crash I don't know about that and here's why the redline here looks at job openings right obviously it's come down massively over the past 2 2 and a half years we know that right but we still have a really high number of job openings like really high number so everybody that's banking on the big unemployment recession you got to understand we need the amount of job openings to come down substantially still from here to really get the massive unemployment cycle right that unemployment cycle that people are so fearful of the the you know 7% 8% 9% 10% plus unemployment numbers that could eventually happen but it's not happening in October it could eventually happen but you need job openings to still come down way more than what they've come down so we we're just not at that place that you really need to be then you might say Japan Japan right uh Japan sent the stock market down massively at the very beginning of August and you might say Japan could be the issue could have the the Yen carry trade could be a problem again it's a possibility but it's not super high probability usually when you get these freak situations they're kind of a oneandone there are shock and hot of the market and then it really doesn't affect the market much after that and that's usually for almost everything you could even look at Silicon Valley Bank remember when svb bank went down it was a huge kind of shocking off for the market in that very short term and then it just got over and that was what it was right and even when some other Regional Banks had some problems after that it wasn't really a big deal for the market so could have caused a problem sure but it's not a super high probability here to cause some sort of major problem in in October right then the fed maybe the fed's going to screw this all up maybe that's going to be the problem Well we I'm sure there'll be plenty of these fed officials coming out and talking in October that's what they like to do I I'm like gez they talk more than anybody it's ridiculous but in regards to Fed meetings the FED meetings aren't until November so we're not going to know if the fed's going to cut 25 for their next cut or 50 for their next cut right and then depending upon whether they cut 25 or 50 you can make a debate you can make an argument either way either e either way regards to that that it's good or bad let's say they cut 50 you might say okay they're lowering rates even faster uh this is great news for the market because rates are coming down which means you know obviously debt gets cheaper all those sorts of things people could get excited about that then you can say if they cut only 25 then the Bulls could say oh see this is proof the econom is doing great we don't need to keep cutting 50 this is great news so you and bears could flip it on the other way e too right so it's really in the eye of the beholder on on whether they think a 25 or 50 is good but the moral of story is we're not getting that no November so once again if you're worried about like the tanking of the market we're not going to get what we need to get until November so in October once again like could the market crash it's just if the fed's going to cause a crash how are they going to cause a crash when they're not even meeting in October right now seasonality right this remember we're the red line here right overtime this looks at the stock market seasonal patterns from 1949 to 2022 and we're in an open field situation here basically right and so if you look usually the Market tanks but guess what it usually starts tanking in September and then continues to tank in October bottoms out the end of October starts to come back to life does a double bottom basically in November and then comes back to life for real for real right so looking at that the seasonal patterns would say we're in a situation where the market should in theory tank in October if we're going to play this out how usually we usually play it out but here's the issue we should already have tanked the market the market hit alltime highs week across the board Dow S&P NASDAQ so if we hit all-time highs and we we should have already been tanking this Market it's not a it's not playing out how we usually play out here right which if you're then banking that October the Market's going to tank just be careful because September the market was supposed to tank and we didn't get the tank right so that's something to keep in mind there this looks at S&P 500 monthly returns from 1928 to 2023 and what we're going to see is September generally a very bad month and it wasn't it was a very good month October is actually usually a good month for the market it's usually up right now we can say on on election cycle it's usually down sure that's fair but usually the the the Market's up in October right now you could also say why would Traders dump right first of off are Longs going to dump like real investors probably not because they hold through any of these situations so you're really counting on Traders why would Traders dump out of stocks in mass in October right if November through January usually great because November is usually a phenomenal month for the market December phenomenal month for the market January phenomenal month for the market that's just typically and in season in seasonal times so why why would investors dump out of stocks in mass in in October when they when they basically know that the market usually goes up substantially November December January that just wouldn't make the most sense right think about that for a moment and and also remember a lot of these people believe that after the election the Market's going flying so I mean could you dump your stocks in in October sure but then when are you getting back in the very end of October well that creates buying pressure uh you're waiting till the first week of November like like when are you waiting for right and so I think it's a hard to dump your stocks in October if you believe the Market's going risk on November December into January right little food for thought in regards to that now they said September stocks are going to crash and what did we get we got this is September results and we're about at the end of the month right JD stock up 49% Chinese company Baba up 30% wind Resorts up 26% Tesla Myas up 21% paler up almost 18% Nike up 10% uh meta up 9% Estee Lauder up over 8% The Q's were up 3% S&P 500 up 2% so they said stocks were going to crash in September and imagine Miss missing out on that like seriously imagine missing out on that like what a like what you didn't want to be on the sidelines in September but they said it was going to crash and it just never did right so this is some some food for thought as I like to say right and it just seems like people are playing the stock market like the way I play roulette so basically you know if I ever have to go down the strip somebody's in town they want to go down the strip they want to you know Gamble and whatnot uh I mean I I would usually prefer to play some craps but if we're going to go something else other than that I'll do roulette right I got a problem if I do roulette I have the stupidest strategy basically if I see it come up one color a lot of times in a row I'm like oh let me go on the other color the odds don't change it's still 50/50 right but if I see it like on black five straight times I'm like it has to be red it has to be red this time let's go red okay and the issue you know that's fine for gambling you're screwing around you know spending 100 200 bucks the issue is people are doing this in real life with their portfolios they're saying like oh this usually happens so it's going to happen and they like get out of their portfolio or go all the way over here or go all the way over there because they're like this is what usually happens and they're playing like how I would play roulette and it's like dude this is real money like this is your like life savings like this is your Investments like what are you doing here and people are playing it like it's roulette come on like folks got to wake up at some point in time like this is ridiculous right now me personally I would love the stock market to tank and October why would I love it to tank in October well I would love the stock market to tank in October because one I'd get to buy stocks at really really really cheap prices right very attractive entry points on a lot of stocks so I I would be happy if stocks tanked I would love to buy all the stocks I've been buying at cheaper prices go ahead tank the market right I would love the Kangaroo Market in October and why would I like that well at Kangaroo Market there still going to be some stocks that overperform so maybe I could take some profits in a couple stocks I've beening going to kind of take some profits in and additionally there's many stocks uh I think are great values right now and so if those stocks don't move I'm continue to be a buyer of those stocks in October even if the stock prices aren't really moving right lastly I would love the stock market to blast higher there's a couple stocks I want to take some profits on so I wouldn't mind if those stocks blasted higher and additionally I want to run some Hedges up and so being that I need to hedge my portfolio likely in October I'm either going to do in October or November I wouldn't mind at all if the stock market went higher so I don't care what happens in October I'm set stock market tanks I got a game plan stock market's a kangaroo I got a game plan stock market goes up bunch I got a game plan and that's how you got to get to in the market where it doesn't matter what happens you have a plan ready to rock and roll for whatever the situation is tank the market awesome kangaroo the market awesome blast the market higher awesome that's that's a place you got to get to because once you get to that place it's it's a holy grail of investor in my opinion as being an individual investor when you feel like I don't care what happens like I'm set up for whatever cuz I can tell you most people they're not really set up for all those different scenarios right that that's how you got to position your portfolio so always remember folks the shortterm is going to be what the short term's going to be remain focused on long term remain focused on building positions that you love for the next 5 10 years you know great companies own 10 20 stocks that you absolutely love and call it a day and the short term will be with short term is if the market crashes you get to buy for cheaper phenomenal if you got if you're Hing at with an individual and you hedge you're probably going to make a bunch of money on the downside like you're set up man you're set up for whatever happens there okay guys appreciate you joining me as always pin comment down there seven things to do when stocks are crashing that's a free workshop for you guys make sure you get access to that I don't shout this out much anymore but you're definitely going to want to get access to that so you know how to react when you are in a crashing Market which we will have a crashing Market eventually it's just a question of is it next month 3 months 6 months a year 2 years 3 years eventually you're going to have it you got to know what to do in that situation pin comment free access for it much love and have a great day