The War in Ukraine and its Geopolitical Implications

Introduction

• Speaker: Professor John Mearsheimer, Political Science Professor at University of Chicago
• Host: Gita Wirjawan

War in Ukraine

• Likely to last a long time
• Best outcome: a cold peace

Impact on China

• China is a significant winner so far
• Reverting to a Cold War-like situation:
  • Chinese-led order vs. American-led order

Background of John Mearsheimer

• Interest sparked by an International Relations course at West Point
• PhD from Cornell University
• Focused on international politics, theories, and social science

Realism in Political Science

• Definition: States (especially great powers) are concerned with balance of power for survival
• Examples:
  • China's “Century of National Humiliation” due to weakness
  • Russia's reaction to NATO expansion
• Realism doesn’t discriminate between political systems (democracies vs. autocracies)

Realism vs. Liberal Hegemony

• Post-Cold War: U.S. pursued liberal hegemony during unipolar moment (1990s-2017)
• Engagement policy with China
• Post-2017: Shift to realist containment policy towards China
• Liberal rhetoric disguises realist behavior

Global Order and Multilateralism

• During unipolar moment: U.S.-led liberal international order
• Now: Emerging Chinese and American-led regional orders reminiscent of Cold War

U.S. Strategic Core Interests

• Western Hemisphere, Northeast Asia, Middle East/Gulf, Europe
• Shift in importance from Europe to East Asia

U.S. Policy on Ukraine

• NATO expansion seen as an existential threat by Russia
• Ignored warnings from multiple experts and leaders
• Series of escalations leading to current war

Finland and Sweden joining NATO

• Increased insecurity for Russia
• Potential for conflicts in the Arctic

U.S.-China Relations

• Increased interdependence between China and Russia
• China has an interest in ensuring Russia does not lose in Ukraine
• War in Ukraine distracts U.S. from focusing on East Asia

Future of Ukraine War

• Likely to be prolonged
• Potential for a cold peace, not a meaningful peace agreement

Nuclear Threat

• Possible if Russia faces a decisive defeat
• Paradox: U.S. goals in Ukraine increase the likelihood of Russian nuclear use

Taiwan and South China Sea

• Taiwan: High risk due to strategic and nationalist reasons
• South China Sea: Militarization and potential for incidents

Domestic Politics

• Bipartisan support for current U.S. foreign policy
• Economic and political strain on U.S. and Europe due to prolonged support for Ukraine
• Possible domestic unrest influencing future policies

Conclusion

• U.S. policy has led to strategic blunders and escalations
• Importance of careful consideration to avoid provoking China or Russia into irrational actions