Lecture on Artificial Intelligence and the Future

Introduction

• Speaker with 61 years of experience in AI.
• Reflection on the evolution of AI perspectives.

Early Days of AI (1950s-1960s)

• AI officially named in 1956 at the Dartmouth conference.
• Early skepticism and optimism:
  • General public and some scientists were skeptical.
  • Optimists like Minsky thought human-level AI could be achieved in a semester.
  • The speaker predicted it would take decades, but within a lifetime.

Unique Human Capabilities

• Humans create tools enhancing intelligence, e.g., smartphones.
• Comparison of human brains to other species (e.g., elephants, whales).
• Importance of the opposable thumb for tool creation and usage.
• Monkeys: can create first-generation tools but cannot use those to create further tools.
• AI as progressive toolmaking.

Exponential Growth in Computation

• Monitoring computational growth for 45 years.
• Exponential increase in computing power:
  • 1939: 0.000007 calculations per second per dollar.
  • Recent: Half a trillion calculations per second.
• Large language models significant increase.

Predictions and Developments in AI

• 1999: Predicted AGI by 2029 (met with skepticism).
• Current predictions by notable figures (e.g., Elon Musk) indicate AGI is imminent.
• "The Singularity is Nearer": upcoming book by the speaker outlining AI's future influence.

Impact on Wealth and Technology

• Wealth today significantly higher than 100 years ago.
• AI revolutionizing all technologies:
  • Better education, healthcare, and overall wealth.

AI in Medicine

• AI's role in rapid medical advancements:
  • Creation of the Moderna COVID vaccine in two days.
  • Promising cancer cures.
  • AlphaFold 2: 200 million protein structures in 2023.
  • Digital simulations for safer and faster trials.
• Longevity escape velocity anticipated by early 2030s.

Future of Resources and Intelligence

• Concerns about resource depletion addressed:
  • AI will enable efficient energy solutions, e.g., solar energy.
• By 2030s: nanobots connecting brains to the cloud.
• Singularity by 2045: a million-fold increase in intelligence.
  • Enhanced creativity, intelligence, and cultural experiences.
  • Revolution in personal and social capabilities.

Conclusion

• Importance of AI in enhancing life and human experiences.
• Personal note on family and the meaningfulness of life enhanced by AI.