Tesla Conference Call Insights and Future

What up, HyperChange? Just got off one of the most bullish, I don't know, I didn't know what to expect heading into this Tesla call, but Elon Musk was so dialed in and so focused. We got an incredible update on Tesla's business. I took notes during the conference call. I'm going to run through all my notes with you, give you my full spiel here. Before I want to get down into it, I just want to give a quick reiteration of why it's so important to focus on, you know, the company conference calls. You're hearing directly from management. This is Tesla and Elon Musk. For every three months, they're allowed to speak to the public. Not only are they telling you information about the business that's new, but their tone, the sentiment, the vibe is so important to understand what's going on in between the words. And can almost be more important than what they say is the vibe on the call. And Elon Musk, I've never heard Elon Musk like this. He was dialed in, so focused, almost rushing through the first bits of... of the conference call here to get to the big part. So anyway, I'm going to go through my notes here. I'll try it. I'm going to copy and paste this and put this in the YouTube description. I know I forgot last time, but I'm going to do it so y'all can browse my notes that I just typed on the conference call. Could be some errors, but let's just run with it because this is, I'm just like too excited, a little all over the place, but tons of news to break down. So let's do it. Q4, set a record delivering the most cars Tesla's ever delivered. 2 million cars a year. Run rate. Love that. Model Y, best selling car on earth of any kind. I just, it takes like a second for that to sink in. Like Model Y, best-selling car on earth of any kind. Not only is the best-selling car fully electric, but it's not even that cheap. And it's made by Tesla. And most of them are made in America. So very unprecedented and kind of like a, we made it, Tesla crushed it. Model Y is the best-selling car ever. Anyway, 10x-ing on autonomy, not doubling. So they have this joke about, in his predetermined comments, about doubling down on autonomy. And then Elon says, no, we're not doubling down. We're 10x-ing. He doesn't, he's... And then he reiterates how many investments Tesla's made this year that will bear immense fruit in the future in terms of AI. And that he sees this is the most important part of the whole call. He sees a path not only to Tesla becoming the world's most valuable company, but to becoming the world's most valuable company by far, worth more than the next five companies combined. It's hard to understate this. So not only does Elon Musk break that Tesla will be worth at least $5 trillion to $10 trillion, which is about three to four to five times. the valuation we're at today, but he says it may be worth all the next five most valuable companies in the world combined. If we did that today, Tesla would have to be worth like $10 trillion. So Elon Musk is tripling down on this idea that the Tesla product pipeline of Optimus and CyberCab is going, even though Tesla, this is what's so ironic and crazy about Tesla, even though for this massive multi-trillion dollar company, you're also looking at a company that is growing like a startup. It's literally like a startup and we've never seen anything like And I think that's why it's so hard to put Tesla in a box, because most companies at $1 to $2 trillion would be mature, would already be making money for most of their products that are valuing the company. Tesla's made $0 from the products that we're most excited about, the robot and the self-driving car. So that's why this is one of the most fascinating case studies in the whole world right now to follow in terms of finance. So he's, once again, though, Elon Musk reiterating, two products that don't exist yet, CyberCab and Optimus, will make Tesla the world's... by far most viable company. He thinks Tesla is setting up for an insanely epic 2026 and a ridiculously good 2728. I think that means in terms of like profitability, like we start to ramp up growth in a big way in 2026 and then 2027 and eight when FSD and Optimus are hitting their stride delivering in mass. That is when we get massive revenue earnings, all that stuff investors have been waiting for. And he does this really interesting analogy that meeting full self driving today is like meeting a toddler. And you wouldn't assume the toddler's maxed out its capabilities. Like obviously it's going to keep growing. So I thought that was such a great analogy because I have my Model Y that I've had for five years and my Model Y like still drive. It's learning how to drive. Like it's still, it's better than ever at driving. It's five years old. I have an update right now that I've been too lazy to install and it's going to get even better at driving. Like it blows my mind. And so when I put things into context of like my super dumb, like. Just like not investor brain, but just like tech nerd brain. I'm like, okay, like Tesla built this car that was a computer five years ago that I bought that I only bought for like 50 Gs. It was like a normal price car plus 12 Gs or 8 Gs for full self-driving. But the point is, I basically bought this car five years ago. It's an old computer. It's aging. I haven't done any updates or anything to it. And it is over the air with software, learning how to get better drive. It's basically driving me everywhere. I love it in Seattle. I love it on the highway. Barely ever intervene. Um, I tell all my friends I've retired from driving. And so for that to be on a five-year-old product, to me, it's like, okay, obviously what Tesla's building now, five years in the future with all the more resources and technology they developed is going to be able to full self-drive if my old piece of crap Model Y can pretty much do it already. So, um. And then Elon has a lot of interesting takes on this, like human intuition is linear. This is exponential progress. He says the number one thing that people should do is try full self-driving to experience it and then continues to double down on this interesting analogy of the typical passenger car has 10 hours per week of use out of 168 when it's autonomous. Or sorry, he doubles down this analogy of the typical passenger car has 10 hours of use out of 168 in a week. With autonomy, he thinks that can rise to 55 hours a week, 5x in utility. All of these assets have so much more value. And then he goes to talk about these interesting use cases of delivering restaurant supplies at night, delivering packages at night, things that we only do during the day now because that's when normal humans work. But when we have self-driving cars, it's going to totally transform all this potential and opportunity within the economy. I love how there's a focus on safety. They're making more improvements. They released the safety numbers in the earnings report. It was like eight times safer per mile, or you're eight times less likely to get in an accident if you're using full self-driving. I hope they keep pushing out that data. They launched V14, or V14 is coming, which is going to be another big step from V13. So once again, constantly innovating. I'm still on V12, and it works great. They launched this Cortex training cluster at Austin, massive basically data center. infrastructure, AI training to handle all of that data that's coming at them to train them for self-driving cars. Then there's an interesting tidbit where Elon says Optimus is going to require 10x of what's needed for the car to do training. So a lot more training. So this whole rumor that Optimus is simpler, not so true. But the cost of training is dropping over time. So that's a good factor going in Tesla's favor. Then he says Optimus has the potential to be worth 10 trillion in revenue. So this is something that constantly gets iterated on Elon Musk calls. And he kind of acknowledges how ridiculous it sounds, but he also reiterates how realistic he thinks it sounds and how if you put into context $500 billion spent into training for something that's going to generate $10 trillion in revenue is actually a good deal. So these massive multi-billion dollar CapEx investments people are making into AI, Elon's alluding to, well, it makes a lot of sense if you just look at the potential for what those are getting to. And he reiterates that the future will look very different from the past. And so I think this is kind of like an interesting point that I didn't consider because, but when we think of Elon Musk's impact on humanity and his companies and just technology in the era of hyperchange in general, it's hard to take a step back and realize where we are in this arc of technology. And so for Elon to talk about how much is about to change, I think says a lot because he has seized more than anyone and his empire is literally doing the changing. So, and then I like how he kind of. Takes it back down to like, well, the proof is in the pudding. Like if we can't launch a really good self-driving service, then all this is out the window. So guess what? We're launching in June this year. June this year. This is the biggest mic drop moment for the whole conference call. Tesla's launching its full self-driving robot taxi service in June of this year. They already have thousands of cars driving around Fremont. They put out that video. They already are going to soon have cars driving around the Austin factory as well. This is their toe in the water move to get autonomy going. Then they're going to put their foot in the water. Um, they're going to make sure the public safety is at the top of mind. Also, it was noted, uh, in the future of the conference call that this will be Tesla owned and operated cars. It's not going to be customer cars that are put on the network. Tesla is going to start by doing their own cars that they handle themselves. I think that's really smart. Um, and then Elon talks here about how the optimist projections will be, are insane, but he thinks they're, uh, accurate. Um, he thinks that the Tesla factories are going to have several thousand Tesla bots. are going to be working in the Tesla factories doing useful things, he's confident, this year. That's just design one. Design two of the Tesla bot happens mid-next year or late next year. And the way they're ramping this is very interesting. They're going to do, eventually, well, they want to launch it, ramp it faster than anything they've ever done. But, so that means it won't take long before they're making 100 million of these per year. I don't know if I got that right. Maybe it's a million. But Elon's talking about 500% per... production growth year over year for years. And he goes on to say about how they tried to basically source different robotic components from suppliers to build Optimus. None of them were up to snuff. They had to build everything in-house. This is another way of saying how difficult it's going to be for another competitor to replicate the vertical integration stack if you have a Tesla. You can't compete with Tesla. Even if you come out with a humanoid robot that has the functionality, are you going to be able to make it for as cheap as Tesla can and compute them on cost? No chance. So long term, Elon Musk reiterates Optimus will be the driver of Tesla's multi-trillion dollar valuation that is five times more than every company. Back to earth, they say, or back to energy, which is a funny little joke. Energy storage more important than ever. And we can massively unlock the potential of the grid by having energy storage. And this is something that took me a while to understand how the grid is designed for like peak demand because it doesn't fluctuate. And so by bringing on extra battery buffers to help with that peak demand, it is a huge, it massively moves the needle of the ROI and just functionality, resiliency of the grid. And so that's why Elon Musk is saying the demand for these battery packs with the mega pack is so incredible. They're having basically as many as they can build, people will buy. And I kept asking, well, okay, we just ramped a factory in California. We're building a new one in Shanghai. They're still not that big factories. We should be building away another big factory if we're going to keep ramping mega packs. Guess what? Elon mentions. Shanghai factory's starting operation, big growth coming there, and they're going to have another factory that's in the works. We haven't heard about that yet, but I thought that was interesting. Then he talks about how Tesla, though, has to be very delicate. They can't just overinvest into battery storage because then they won't have batteries for vehicles. So they're always doing that dance. Do they want to give, you know, batteries to the energy storage business or to the new vehicle programs? What are the margins on those? What's the climate impact? That's the dance that Tesla's always doing. And he reiterates that the demand for batteries, because it's transportation or stationary storage, will grow massively in the future. And he says. 2025. To sum it up, this is the end of Elon's closing comments. And this was a 20-minute rant by Elon in his opening remarks, longer than usual, way more passionate, way more dialed in and focused. My biggest takeaway was he is so confident in these new products and so excited about the potential. You can just hear that in his voice. In his mind, Tesla looks nothing like it does today to us. It's not selling cars to consumers. It's offering a robo-taxi service that becomes almost like a utility and backbone of our economy. simultaneously launching these robots to do all sorts of boring, dangerous, and manual, you know, repetitive labor. So in Elon Musk's head, these already exist. And these technologies, he's already working on them. He's already de-risked them. But it's just going to take a while or a couple of years, not even that long for them to get to market. But that's why in Elon Musk's head, Tesla is a very different company than we see it as today in the real world. And he talks about how 2025... is going to be the biggest year in Tesla's history. People will remember this year because it's the year they launched the self-driving car, bigger than the Roadster, bigger than the Model 3 launch. So that is so important. Tesla in its history, when we look back on it, is going to have so many moments of disruption in changing the industry, so many products. So for Elon Musk to say this is the year that's most important because even bigger than the invention of the electric car is the invention of the self-driving car. And that's what we're going to remember this year as is really important to like, you know, I've been investing in Tesla for 13 years now. which is crazy, but like crazy to even say or think about that. And I'm 32. So that's like, but I want to invest Tesla for another 13 years and for another 13 years. And so, and to think that in its whole multi decades of history and everything that it's done, we're going to look back on this random year right here, I guess not random, but 2025 as the year that they went autonomous and was the most pivotal year for Tesla. Yeah, I wouldn't take that lightly. I'm thinking about it. And I love this joke that Elon Musk says. I don't even know who's in second place in real world AI. We would need a telescope to see them. That's just hilarious. And I love that, especially because my name is Galileo. So gotta love that joke. Then we went to the Say questions. So these were the questions from Say. Shout out to Say. I worked with them to set up this system. So you know I'm a fan of getting the retail shareholders to ask questions. I know people complain like, oh, the questions weren't good this year. But it's like, look, retail shareholders have a voice, Tesla. opens its conference call with 40 minutes answering little retail shareholder questions that got voted up before the analyst. I cannot tell you how much I love that. Like that is so, like they just got the little investors back. Most companies do not, especially of this size. So it's important to like remember how special it is to get that voice as a Tesla shareholder. That being said, what did our shareholders ask here? FSD unsupervised launch, not just in Austin this year, but in California. most likely to release to actually many regions of the U.S. this year. So that is a very big news. I think the market was not expecting Elon to be ready to launch full self-driving until way later this year, probably 2026. So for it to be coming in multiple cities this year would be huge. And he said he wants to use insane amounts of caution when rolling it out. Obviously, it needs to be safety first. And this is a notion that I'm very passionate about. Wow. So 40,000 people. die in motor vehicle crashes in the U.S. each year, but it gets no attention. And that's what Elon's talking about. Yet someone scrapes their shin on an autonomous car. That's national headline news. And I can't stress how important and interesting this is of like, if we're going to do hard things and solve hard problems, we need to have a rational media and like thoughtful mindset around that. Like I have a friend who passed away because he was hit by a drunk driver. These are very real. things. And that's one reason I'm so passionate about Tesla self-driving software, because I don't think it would have happened if we had self-driving cars. And to think about what his family went through, to think about what his friends went through, and to think that that's just one of 40,000 people who needlessly died on our roads. And Elon Musk and Tesla are trying to fix that with all their self-driving technology, but no one's giving that, no one gives that a shout out. And so I just think that's a very like, it's just a ridiculous double standard that 40,000 people... a year die on our roads. And then Tesla has the safest software ever and no one's rooting for it. And if it scratches his shin, it's like a big headline news. It's just not a fair apples to apples comparison. So I think that's going to be one of the biggest hurdles to get back to Tesla stock of launching full self-driving is public perception of the haters that it's safe and that we need it. They're going to be irrationally hating and trying to stop FSD. I think that's a big concern. That's BS, but is real. So discussions about licensing FSD. Yes, they're having them. And Elon Musk says the best way to do it is to buy a car and take it apart, see where the cameras are. Then you don't have to waste our time. And he says, basically, we're not wasting our time. Tesla engineers, we only got a few. They're like the Navy SEALs. He's the world's most elite engineers. They're not dilly-dallying with the Volkswagen team or the Ford team or the GM team until, A, one of those automakers commits to having a vehicle with millions of units or at least hundreds of thousands of units, massive program with massive volume, not some rinky-dink car that no one's going to buy. Right. They want it on a very high volume vehicle. And first, they're going to focus on getting Tesla's full self driving off the ground. Then they're going to worry about licensing. And then Elon makes this joke that's like, well, if you're not licensing FSD, you're going to be dead as an OEM. And I really think that. The whole, like, to me, I feel like I know a secret that no one else knows. My car can drive itself. I can touch a button and I immediately am relieved of all the stress and headaches of driving. And I'm immediately relaxed. And my car drives itself. This is a luxury that's. priceless. I wouldn't even buy a million dollar Ferrari because it can't drive itself and it would be so annoying to drive it everywhere. I will never buy anything else besides a Tesla. When I rent cars, I only rent Teslas because I know how to drive them and they drive themselves. And once you understand how to use Tesla's self-driving software, you will never go back. And I feel like only a few hundred thousand or a few million people in the world know that secret. But that's what I think is so powerful about Tesla's FSD is you will not switch. Once you head into the future and you're like me and you retire from driving, you're never going back. And so the whole idea of buying a car without self-driving software is ridiculous. And that's a notion that very few people hold today. But in the future, it will be obvious that buying a car without self-driving is ridiculous. So that's just an interesting change that's going to occur. Now, Optimus. Is Optimus design locked? I thought that was funny and Elon Musk is like, no, we're still scheming on how to build it. I'm constantly iterating. We got the best robotics team in the world. And we got this is very important. This is why you look at companies like figure and all these companies getting all this hype for robots. But it's like, why can they not do it? But Tesla can Tesla's been has all the ingredients to cook this up. And they've been they've been getting ready for this for so long, like they have the battery packs best in the world that building battery packs that work reliably in the wild and every condition can charge super reliably of all the electronics that work great communications with Wi Fi cellular cup. coverage, always connected. And then you have the real world AI to actually understand and process and visualize where to go. You have the hardware and chips and computer on board built and specifically designed for inference so you can understand things in the real world, not send it back to the cloud. You have this probably list of 10 or 20 technologies that only Tesla's been able to develop and is developing in-house to build Optimus. It's going to be so hard for anyone else to compete. And then you have the manufacturing. Tesla is so good at manufacturing that they're going to be able to pump these out at an insane rate. And that's where this starts to get fun. Elon starts talking about the production potential of Optimus. He's saying production two launches next year, maybe beginning, maybe the middle. Production one, launching this year, 1,000 units a month on the production line, learning, iterating, tons to work through. Next year, version two, 10,000 units a month on the production line. Version three, 100,000 units a month on the production line. So Elon Musk keeps reiterating, this is going to launch way faster than a car, massive. And so not only is it going to launch faster than the car, not only is it ahead of schedule, he thinks it's going to cost less than $20,000 to produce Optimus when they're making more than a million a year. So less than $20,000. But then what is so interesting is unlike saying like, oh, we're going to be squeezed on margin. Now Tesla builds something that costs $35,000. They sell for $40,000. They make $5,000 in profit. Now Tesla is going to be building something for $20,000. selling it for a hundred grand, making 80% margin on just the hardware, plus all this recurring software revenue for skills. I mean, It's insane. And so I loved what he said, market price, market demand is going to set Optimus'price. This isn't going to be priced at a 10%, 15% margin, market demand. Everything I've heard about market demand for humanoid robots is insane. People are lining up at the door to buy these things, paying hundreds of thousands of dollars, doing whatever it takes to get their hands on one. If Tesla can build it for anywhere near that price, margins are going to be insane. Now, that is why I think Elon actually says the most important thing. skill for Tesla's manufacturing because it's going to boil down to that cost advantage on the robot. Semi-truck, total cost of ownership, no-brainer, and massive demand. And then they joke about how big of an impact it'll have on Tesla because a few billion in earnings isn't that much when you take out Optimus. And they're talking about the shortage of truck drivers in the US and how autonomy is going to be really helpful for that. But part of me really thinks that semi-truck is such a big idea because it's- It's in Tesla moving freight. It's like a train car that doesn't need to be on a train. Once you have an autonomous truck, it's going to reduce the cost of trucking to compete with rail transport. And then you have an equally big opportunity of moving people as moving stuff. Right now, we're only talking about Tesla moving people. Once they start moving stuff, to me, that's just such a bigger part of the economy that we don't interact with every day other than ordering Amazon packages. But we don't see it every day. And so I actually think... The semi-truck is great. It's a diversification of Tesla's business. It's something you're going to buy whether you like Elon Musk or not because it's the total cost of ownership. It's going to make the road so much safer. How much of our accidents are caused by semi-trucks? How dangerous are those accidents because of how big the trucks are? So there's a lot to be excited about with the semi-truck from like a product perspective, but is it going to drive the long term value of Tesla? Only if Optimus fails. Now, hardware three, there was a tidbit about how hardware three owners are going to need to update their... uh hardware to get basically full self-driving our computers i have a v3 not a big deal um i like how elon gave the honest answer here but people have been wondering that so glad i got asked solar roof ramping a good question about the solar roof basically it's a premium product like srx instead of installing it themselves they're outsourcing it to this sort of network of roofers um and i don't know i still think the solar roof has insane potential if i was building a new house i would get one i know they're expensive but i do feel like it's not a focus for the company right now they just have other Fish to fry for the moment. Robotaxis. Oh, then we finally got to the analyst questions. Love how they got squeezed to the back. Robotaxis in Austin and several other cities this year. I love that. And then they talk about regulation in the EU, how the EU is making them go through this massive committee in May to get approved. They have to get all the countries approved. Just taking a massive amount of time and bureaucracy to get through even supervised full self-driving in Europe. So and I like his saying, like America innovates, Europe regulates, like Europe, GDP has fallen massively behind the US since they combined into the euro and have sort of stagnated in bureaucracy. So I'm very curious of like, US is going to launch it, China is going to launch it, how much is Europe straggled? But and then also the data problem with China, of China, you know, they can't trade the data basically between China and the US makes it very hard to train these neural net systems. So I just think there's a lot of It's not as simple to just launch this thing as people think, especially when you're dealing with governments. So I'm only getting excited about the US for now. Europe and China are going to take another year or two. And I think China comes way before Europe. And he also mentions that Tesla can keep its manufacturing going well, even if geopolitical tensions rise to very high levels. Love that for Tesla. I mean, you think about how geographically diversified they are with factories on every continent, these vertically integrated supply chains. I mean, all that hard work. turns into a super resilient business for the long term. That's what Elon's referencing there. Pierre, the French analyst, talks about the Austin launch of robo taxis, and they reiterate, like, it's going to be Tesla-owned cars, not your own car. It'll be 2026 when they let you put your own car on the network. And then right now, they're going to be scrutinizing everything, making sure it's super safe, and just toe in the water to start. But in June, you will be able to call your autonomous ride. Then they talk about how they don't need EV incentives to keep electric vehicles going if Trump takes those away, and how battery production is the biggest roadblock to growth right now. So there is the conference call. I will post this transcript below. Remember, it could be wrong. It's just my notes that I scribbled down while listening to the call. But I wanted to reiterate my takeaway here. I mean, I've listened to Elon Musk on conference calls for 12, for 13 years now. He's this comp and we've seen lots of ups and downs i mean i've seen i've heard him very bullish and optimistic and this was one of those times and maybe one of the most ever like he is so dialed in and focused and has been hammering this autonomous car thing for so many years and we've all even myself been a little skeptical and like Elon's always a little too futuristic and out there, but it feels closer than ever. And it feels like it's actually happening. And Elon Musk confidence in that and real and now, you know, screw all the BS and hype and, and la-di-da-da and haters because we have a date and a time, June 2025 in Austin, the robo taxi service is launching like this is coming. And I think once it launches there, like, it's only gonna kind of accelerate this whole like, whoops, I gotta kill mini me in the corner. It's only gonna, um, uh, It's just going to accelerate, and it's going to be this massive boom. Elon, a few years ago, I remember on the conference call when he said that Tesla was going to be the size of Apple. Apple at this time was $700 billion. Everyone thought that was ridiculous. Fast forward a few years, they exactly hit those numbers. They crushed their profit and delivery expectations. They produce billions. They make unheard of profits in the car industry and become a trillion-dollar-plus company, fulfilling his insane prophecy that no one thought was true. So we've seen Elon time and time again make these ridiculous claims, but unlike most people, he actually hits them. Maybe he's a year or two late, but with the Apple one, he wasn't. And remember, and I like what he said on this call, the media only reports when he misses deadlines, not when he makes them. Tesla's actually made a lot of deadlines, and their whole strategy of making the impossible late by pushing these incredible deadlines has resulted in the commercialization of insane technology. So I, because of my own confidence using FSD, and it watching it improve and using it every day on my own car between hearing Elon Musk confidence between seeing the self the videos of the self-driving Teslas outside of the factory I mean Elon's tweeting unsupervised the moment that this moment is coming closer and closer than ever and um I don't know I mean I think if there's one thing I've honestly learned as a Tesla investor it's like very few CEOs are honest and keep it real with their shareholders Elon Musk is one of them and honestly like too honest and candid like he just doesn't do any of this corporate filtering and BS. And I think that gets into a lot of trouble because the whole world works with basically business people say fake stuff to pretend to be liked. And Elon Musk doesn't do that, which I actually like him for that because he keeps it real. And I think that's one of the secrets to his authenticity. But that's what you have to unpack to understand why he's communicating. We're always going to be self like it's and he makes this joke about the boy who cried wolf. And he's like, well, the wolf is going to come and it's going to drive itself. And so. I just think this is one of the most fascinating moments in Tesla history right now. Elon Musk is saying this is the most important year, 2025. We're looking at a company that just did $7 billion in earnings, but is trading at $1.4 trillion, 200 times earnings. Yet, this may be the best large cap investment to make right now, despite that irrational, quote, irrational valuation, because of what's coming in the pipeline. 2027, 2028, it's sounding like tens of billions of profits or more are on the table and will continue to ramp up. big time from there. And so that is not something I want to miss out on. I'm holding on to my Tesla stock, not selling. I mean, I've been holding on forever, you know, 13 years at this point. So it's still my number one position. And by far, the most of my net worth is in Tesla. And that's not changing. But I do acknowledge the valuation is high. There might be stumbling blocks. But what keeps me holding through all this, it's Tesla's like 20 startups in one. It's valued at one and a half trillion, but it's really a startup with several startups with multi-trillion dollar potential rolled up into there. You have a $37 billion balance sheet and a cashflow producing business today. That's your backbone. So it's like Optimus and CyberCab are like never expiring call options because Tesla can fund itself till they get those technologies off the ground. So even if it takes till 2035, it doesn't matter. So my long story short is even though part of my intuition saying, oh my gosh, there's so much that could go wrong. There's such high valuation. I'm looking at the flip side of like, well, Tesla's actually got a rock solid balance sheet. They have years to pull this off. Elon Musk has done the impossible time and time again. They have the best engineers in the world. It's not even Tesla. The alpha in Tesla that Wall Street can't understand is what they haven't announced yet. And that's why this whole optimist thing has been fascinating because for so long, Wall Street just refused to acknowledge Tesla as anything else besides this low margin car company. Then they're a high margin car company. Then they say they're going to build humanoid robots with all their. you know, expertise that they've already developed in manufacturing things in-house. And that wasn't on the spreadsheet. No other car companies had a successful robotics business. No one's ever launched the iPhone 2.0 computer product that's a personal computing device that everyone has that follows them around. Like, this is going to be bigger than the iPhone. And so that's a product that came out of Elon Musk's brain. That's 10x the size of Tesla and 10x the size of the investment, blown every calculation for IRR and financial nerds out of the water because Elon Musk invented something else and put it in Tesla. So when you think about investing in companies, it's so important in the era of hyperchange and things are changing rapidly, the leadership who's running your company, what products they have in their head based on their technologies that they haven't announced yet. I mean, that's where the alpha is. And Wall Street lives in this in-the-box world of we can't put it in our spreadsheet, then we don't really know it. And so now they're trying to put self-driving cars in the spreadsheet. They're trying to put robots in the spreadsheet. And it's breaking the system of how to value companies. And the question is, what does Elon Musk invent next? He said airplanes are going to go electric. I mean, right now Tesla can grow 100x with just their current product lineup. So I think they'll focus on that. But it's just a fact that... This whole Tesla investment has been a fascinating case study on leadership. The most important asset or liability a company has is not in the financial statements. It's in the boardroom. It's who is leading the company. You want to invest in owner-operator founders. It's, you know, what do I do if I'm not YouTubing and making videos on stocks? I run my VC firm, HyperGwomp. We invest in like 30, 40 companies, 35 million bucks. Never met a CEO that's as good as Elon Musk. Like he is literally on another level to every founder I meet. I've met with hundreds of founders. following all these companies. It's, and it's like, you know, people will call me an Elon Musk fan or all this. It's like, I'm not a, I'm what? Like I've just objectively been analyzing his companies and they are so second to none in their pace of innovation and what they execute and the technologies they bring to market. It's, we're witnessing history and it's hard to put into words how special and unique of a moment it is, especially right now because it's Tesla's most important year ever. So I think that the je ne sais quoi. of Elon Musk being able to do the impossible and commercialize these technologies that change society and not only take value but unlock more value for the world in a way that we can't even fathom by taking away the burden of repetitive, boring, dangerous labor and having a robot or taking the burden away of driving from millions of people and saving hundreds of millions of hours of time or billions of hours of human time by this innovation. That's what it boils down to. When you think about Tesla's two biggest innovations... They save humans time. The two biggest innovations that will save humans the most time in the next 20 years are A, not having to worry about driving, and B, not having to worry about small tasks. Labor and transportation are going autonomous. And the cognitive load that that will free up for humans to focus on creativity, on other problems. I mean, this is a, literally, I can't think of two bigger things that will save more human time than automating repetitive, dangerous labor. and driving. And so when you think about, you know, why was Uber such a valuable company? They sold time, they sold convenience. And so when you really boil it down to it, that's what Tesla's focused on here. Their cybercam is going to be something that's a 10x improvement on three levels. It's 10x safer, it's 10x cheaper, it's 10x more sustainable to get you around. And so disruption expands the market. Apple didn't just become the biggest phone company. They became the biggest company in the world because they turned the phone into a computer. When you turn a person into a computer, it's going to recreate the biggest company in the world, bigger than the smallest five companies combined. So I don't know. I'm just kind of ranting here to end it, but I don't know. I made my first video analyzing the results like, eh, a little bit weak numbers for Tesla, margins hurting, valuations high, so many expectations. They're going to be able to pull this off. And then I listened to the conference call and it's like, dude. If it takes a year and the share price is rocky for another year, who cares? I cannot miss this. There is so much coming. I mean, Optimus is already walking around. That cyber cab's already driving around Giga Austin. Like, it's already happening. So anyway, this is HyperChange. Never heard Elon Musk so bullish. Great time on the conference call. Let me know what you think of the comments below. I love streaming with y'all. And yeah, I'll see y'all next time. This is HyperChange.

I'm going to run through all my notes with you, give you my full spiel here. Before I want to get down into it, I just want to give a quick reiteration of why it's so important to focus on, you know, the company conference calls. You're hearing directly from management. This is Tesla and Elon Musk. For every three months, they're allowed to speak to the public.

Not only are they telling you information about the business that's new, but their tone, the sentiment, the vibe is so important to understand what's going on in between the words. And can almost be more important than what they say is the vibe on the call. And Elon Musk, I've never heard Elon Musk like this. He was dialed in, so focused, almost rushing through the first bits of...

of the conference call here to get to the big part. So anyway, I'm going to go through my notes here. I'll try it. I'm going to copy and paste this and put this in the YouTube description.

I know I forgot last time, but I'm going to do it so y'all can browse my notes that I just typed on the conference call. Could be some errors, but let's just run with it because this is, I'm just like too excited, a little all over the place, but tons of news to break down. So let's do it.

Q4, set a record delivering the most cars Tesla's ever delivered. 2 million cars a year. Run rate. Love that.

Model Y, best selling car on earth of any kind. I just, it takes like a second for that to sink in. Like Model Y, best-selling car on earth of any kind. Not only is the best-selling car fully electric, but it's not even that cheap.

And it's made by Tesla. And most of them are made in America. So very unprecedented and kind of like a, we made it, Tesla crushed it.

Model Y is the best-selling car ever. Anyway, 10x-ing on autonomy, not doubling. So they have this joke about, in his predetermined comments, about doubling down on autonomy.

And then Elon says, no, we're not doubling down. We're 10x-ing. He doesn't, he's...

And then he reiterates how many investments Tesla's made this year that will bear immense fruit in the future in terms of AI. And that he sees this is the most important part of the whole call. He sees a path not only to Tesla becoming the world's most valuable company, but to becoming the world's most valuable company by far, worth more than the next five companies combined. It's hard to understate this.

So not only does Elon Musk break that Tesla will be worth at least $5 trillion to $10 trillion, which is about three to four to five times. the valuation we're at today, but he says it may be worth all the next five most valuable companies in the world combined. If we did that today, Tesla would have to be worth like $10 trillion.

So Elon Musk is tripling down on this idea that the Tesla product pipeline of Optimus and CyberCab is going, even though Tesla, this is what's so ironic and crazy about Tesla, even though for this massive multi-trillion dollar company, you're also looking at a company that is growing like a startup. It's literally like a startup and we've never seen anything like And I think that's why it's so hard to put Tesla in a box, because most companies at $1 to $2 trillion would be mature, would already be making money for most of their products that are valuing the company. Tesla's made $0 from the products that we're most excited about, the robot and the self-driving car.

So that's why this is one of the most fascinating case studies in the whole world right now to follow in terms of finance. So he's, once again, though, Elon Musk reiterating, two products that don't exist yet, CyberCab and Optimus, will make Tesla the world's... by far most viable company.

He thinks Tesla is setting up for an insanely epic 2026 and a ridiculously good 2728. I think that means in terms of like profitability, like we start to ramp up growth in a big way in 2026 and then 2027 and eight when FSD and Optimus are hitting their stride delivering in mass. That is when we get massive revenue earnings, all that stuff investors have been waiting for. And he does this really interesting analogy that meeting full self driving today is like meeting a toddler. And you wouldn't assume the toddler's maxed out its capabilities.

Like obviously it's going to keep growing. So I thought that was such a great analogy because I have my Model Y that I've had for five years and my Model Y like still drive. It's learning how to drive. Like it's still, it's better than ever at driving. It's five years old.

I have an update right now that I've been too lazy to install and it's going to get even better at driving. Like it blows my mind. And so when I put things into context of like my super dumb, like.

Just like not investor brain, but just like tech nerd brain. I'm like, okay, like Tesla built this car that was a computer five years ago that I bought that I only bought for like 50 Gs. It was like a normal price car plus 12 Gs or 8 Gs for full self-driving.

But the point is, I basically bought this car five years ago. It's an old computer. It's aging. I haven't done any updates or anything to it.

And it is over the air with software, learning how to get better drive. It's basically driving me everywhere. I love it in Seattle. I love it on the highway. Barely ever intervene.

Um, I tell all my friends I've retired from driving. And so for that to be on a five-year-old product, to me, it's like, okay, obviously what Tesla's building now, five years in the future with all the more resources and technology they developed is going to be able to full self-drive if my old piece of crap Model Y can pretty much do it already. So, um. And then Elon has a lot of interesting takes on this, like human intuition is linear.

This is exponential progress. He says the number one thing that people should do is try full self-driving to experience it and then continues to double down on this interesting analogy of the typical passenger car has 10 hours per week of use out of 168 when it's autonomous. Or sorry, he doubles down this analogy of the typical passenger car has 10 hours of use out of 168 in a week.

With autonomy, he thinks that can rise to 55 hours a week, 5x in utility. All of these assets have so much more value. And then he goes to talk about these interesting use cases of delivering restaurant supplies at night, delivering packages at night, things that we only do during the day now because that's when normal humans work.

But when we have self-driving cars, it's going to totally transform all this potential and opportunity within the economy. I love how there's a focus on safety. They're making more improvements.

They released the safety numbers in the earnings report. It was like eight times safer per mile, or you're eight times less likely to get in an accident if you're using full self-driving. I hope they keep pushing out that data.

They launched V14, or V14 is coming, which is going to be another big step from V13. So once again, constantly innovating. I'm still on V12, and it works great. They launched this Cortex training cluster at Austin, massive basically data center. infrastructure, AI training to handle all of that data that's coming at them to train them for self-driving cars.

Then there's an interesting tidbit where Elon says Optimus is going to require 10x of what's needed for the car to do training. So a lot more training. So this whole rumor that Optimus is simpler, not so true.

But the cost of training is dropping over time. So that's a good factor going in Tesla's favor. Then he says Optimus has the potential to be worth 10 trillion in revenue. So this is something that constantly gets iterated on Elon Musk calls. And he kind of acknowledges how ridiculous it sounds, but he also reiterates how realistic he thinks it sounds and how if you put into context $500 billion spent into training for something that's going to generate $10 trillion in revenue is actually a good deal.

So these massive multi-billion dollar CapEx investments people are making into AI, Elon's alluding to, well, it makes a lot of sense if you just look at the potential for what those are getting to. And he reiterates that the future will look very different from the past. And so I think this is kind of like an interesting point that I didn't consider because, but when we think of Elon Musk's impact on humanity and his companies and just technology in the era of hyperchange in general, it's hard to take a step back and realize where we are in this arc of technology. And so for Elon to talk about how much is about to change, I think says a lot because he has seized more than anyone and his empire is literally doing the changing. So, and then I like how he kind of.

Takes it back down to like, well, the proof is in the pudding. Like if we can't launch a really good self-driving service, then all this is out the window. So guess what?

We're launching in June this year. June this year. This is the biggest mic drop moment for the whole conference call.

Tesla's launching its full self-driving robot taxi service in June of this year. They already have thousands of cars driving around Fremont. They put out that video.

They already are going to soon have cars driving around the Austin factory as well. This is their toe in the water move to get autonomy going. Then they're going to put their foot in the water.

Um, they're going to make sure the public safety is at the top of mind. Also, it was noted, uh, in the future of the conference call that this will be Tesla owned and operated cars. It's not going to be customer cars that are put on the network.

Tesla is going to start by doing their own cars that they handle themselves. I think that's really smart. Um, and then Elon talks here about how the optimist projections will be, are insane, but he thinks they're, uh, accurate. Um, he thinks that the Tesla factories are going to have several thousand Tesla bots.

are going to be working in the Tesla factories doing useful things, he's confident, this year. That's just design one. Design two of the Tesla bot happens mid-next year or late next year.

And the way they're ramping this is very interesting. They're going to do, eventually, well, they want to launch it, ramp it faster than anything they've ever done. But, so that means it won't take long before they're making 100 million of these per year.

I don't know if I got that right. Maybe it's a million. But Elon's talking about 500% per... production growth year over year for years.

And he goes on to say about how they tried to basically source different robotic components from suppliers to build Optimus. None of them were up to snuff. They had to build everything in-house.

This is another way of saying how difficult it's going to be for another competitor to replicate the vertical integration stack if you have a Tesla. You can't compete with Tesla. Even if you come out with a humanoid robot that has the functionality, are you going to be able to make it for as cheap as Tesla can and compute them on cost?

No chance. So long term, Elon Musk reiterates Optimus will be the driver of Tesla's multi-trillion dollar valuation that is five times more than every company. Back to earth, they say, or back to energy, which is a funny little joke.

Energy storage more important than ever. And we can massively unlock the potential of the grid by having energy storage. And this is something that took me a while to understand how the grid is designed for like peak demand because it doesn't fluctuate. And so by bringing on extra battery buffers to help with that peak demand, it is a huge, it massively moves the needle of the ROI and just functionality, resiliency of the grid. And so that's why Elon Musk is saying the demand for these battery packs with the mega pack is so incredible.

They're having basically as many as they can build, people will buy. And I kept asking, well, okay, we just ramped a factory in California. We're building a new one in Shanghai.

They're still not that big factories. We should be building away another big factory if we're going to keep ramping mega packs. Guess what?

Elon mentions. Shanghai factory's starting operation, big growth coming there, and they're going to have another factory that's in the works. We haven't heard about that yet, but I thought that was interesting. Then he talks about how Tesla, though, has to be very delicate. They can't just overinvest into battery storage because then they won't have batteries for vehicles.

So they're always doing that dance. Do they want to give, you know, batteries to the energy storage business or to the new vehicle programs? What are the margins on those? What's the climate impact? That's the dance that Tesla's always doing.

And he reiterates that the demand for batteries, because it's transportation or stationary storage, will grow massively in the future. And he says. 2025. To sum it up, this is the end of Elon's closing comments. And this was a 20-minute rant by Elon in his opening remarks, longer than usual, way more passionate, way more dialed in and focused. My biggest takeaway was he is so confident in these new products and so excited about the potential.

You can just hear that in his voice. In his mind, Tesla looks nothing like it does today to us. It's not selling cars to consumers.

It's offering a robo-taxi service that becomes almost like a utility and backbone of our economy. simultaneously launching these robots to do all sorts of boring, dangerous, and manual, you know, repetitive labor. So in Elon Musk's head, these already exist. And these technologies, he's already working on them. He's already de-risked them.

But it's just going to take a while or a couple of years, not even that long for them to get to market. But that's why in Elon Musk's head, Tesla is a very different company than we see it as today in the real world. And he talks about how 2025... is going to be the biggest year in Tesla's history.

People will remember this year because it's the year they launched the self-driving car, bigger than the Roadster, bigger than the Model 3 launch. So that is so important. Tesla in its history, when we look back on it, is going to have so many moments of disruption in changing the industry, so many products. So for Elon Musk to say this is the year that's most important because even bigger than the invention of the electric car is the invention of the self-driving car. And that's what we're going to remember this year as is really important to like, you know, I've been investing in Tesla for 13 years now.

which is crazy, but like crazy to even say or think about that. And I'm 32. So that's like, but I want to invest Tesla for another 13 years and for another 13 years. And so, and to think that in its whole multi decades of history and everything that it's done, we're going to look back on this random year right here, I guess not random, but 2025 as the year that they went autonomous and was the most pivotal year for Tesla. Yeah, I wouldn't take that lightly.

I'm thinking about it. And I love this joke that Elon Musk says. I don't even know who's in second place in real world AI.

We would need a telescope to see them. That's just hilarious. And I love that, especially because my name is Galileo.

So gotta love that joke. Then we went to the Say questions. So these were the questions from Say.

Shout out to Say. I worked with them to set up this system. So you know I'm a fan of getting the retail shareholders to ask questions.

I know people complain like, oh, the questions weren't good this year. But it's like, look, retail shareholders have a voice, Tesla. opens its conference call with 40 minutes answering little retail shareholder questions that got voted up before the analyst. I cannot tell you how much I love that.

Like that is so, like they just got the little investors back. Most companies do not, especially of this size. So it's important to like remember how special it is to get that voice as a Tesla shareholder. That being said, what did our shareholders ask here? FSD unsupervised launch, not just in Austin this year, but in California.

most likely to release to actually many regions of the U.S. this year. So that is a very big news. I think the market was not expecting Elon to be ready to launch full self-driving until way later this year, probably 2026. So for it to be coming in multiple cities this year would be huge.

And he said he wants to use insane amounts of caution when rolling it out. Obviously, it needs to be safety first. And this is a notion that I'm very passionate about.

Wow. So 40,000 people. die in motor vehicle crashes in the U.S. each year, but it gets no attention.

And that's what Elon's talking about. Yet someone scrapes their shin on an autonomous car. That's national headline news. And I can't stress how important and interesting this is of like, if we're going to do hard things and solve hard problems, we need to have a rational media and like thoughtful mindset around that.

Like I have a friend who passed away because he was hit by a drunk driver. These are very real. things. And that's one reason I'm so passionate about Tesla self-driving software, because I don't think it would have happened if we had self-driving cars.

And to think about what his family went through, to think about what his friends went through, and to think that that's just one of 40,000 people who needlessly died on our roads. And Elon Musk and Tesla are trying to fix that with all their self-driving technology, but no one's giving that, no one gives that a shout out. And so I just think that's a very like, it's just a ridiculous double standard that 40,000 people...

a year die on our roads. And then Tesla has the safest software ever and no one's rooting for it. And if it scratches his shin, it's like a big headline news. It's just not a fair apples to apples comparison.

So I think that's going to be one of the biggest hurdles to get back to Tesla stock of launching full self-driving is public perception of the haters that it's safe and that we need it. They're going to be irrationally hating and trying to stop FSD. I think that's a big concern. That's BS, but is real.

So discussions about licensing FSD. Yes, they're having them. And Elon Musk says the best way to do it is to buy a car and take it apart, see where the cameras are. Then you don't have to waste our time.

And he says, basically, we're not wasting our time. Tesla engineers, we only got a few. They're like the Navy SEALs. He's the world's most elite engineers. They're not dilly-dallying with the Volkswagen team or the Ford team or the GM team until, A, one of those automakers commits to having a vehicle with millions of units or at least hundreds of thousands of units, massive program with massive volume, not some rinky-dink car that no one's going to buy.

Right. They want it on a very high volume vehicle. And first, they're going to focus on getting Tesla's full self driving off the ground. Then they're going to worry about licensing. And then Elon makes this joke that's like, well, if you're not licensing FSD, you're going to be dead as an OEM.

And I really think that. The whole, like, to me, I feel like I know a secret that no one else knows. My car can drive itself. I can touch a button and I immediately am relieved of all the stress and headaches of driving. And I'm immediately relaxed.

And my car drives itself. This is a luxury that's. priceless.

I wouldn't even buy a million dollar Ferrari because it can't drive itself and it would be so annoying to drive it everywhere. I will never buy anything else besides a Tesla. When I rent cars, I only rent Teslas because I know how to drive them and they drive themselves. And once you understand how to use Tesla's self-driving software, you will never go back.

And I feel like only a few hundred thousand or a few million people in the world know that secret. But that's what I think is so powerful about Tesla's FSD is you will not switch. Once you head into the future and you're like me and you retire from driving, you're never going back.

And so the whole idea of buying a car without self-driving software is ridiculous. And that's a notion that very few people hold today. But in the future, it will be obvious that buying a car without self-driving is ridiculous.

So that's just an interesting change that's going to occur. Now, Optimus. Is Optimus design locked?

I thought that was funny and Elon Musk is like, no, we're still scheming on how to build it. I'm constantly iterating. We got the best robotics team in the world.

And we got this is very important. This is why you look at companies like figure and all these companies getting all this hype for robots. But it's like, why can they not do it? But Tesla can Tesla's been has all the ingredients to cook this up.

And they've been they've been getting ready for this for so long, like they have the battery packs best in the world that building battery packs that work reliably in the wild and every condition can charge super reliably of all the electronics that work great communications with Wi Fi cellular cup. coverage, always connected. And then you have the real world AI to actually understand and process and visualize where to go. You have the hardware and chips and computer on board built and specifically designed for inference so you can understand things in the real world, not send it back to the cloud.

You have this probably list of 10 or 20 technologies that only Tesla's been able to develop and is developing in-house to build Optimus. It's going to be so hard for anyone else to compete. And then you have the manufacturing. Tesla is so good at manufacturing that they're going to be able to pump these out at an insane rate.

And that's where this starts to get fun. Elon starts talking about the production potential of Optimus. He's saying production two launches next year, maybe beginning, maybe the middle. Production one, launching this year, 1,000 units a month on the production line, learning, iterating, tons to work through. Next year, version two, 10,000 units a month on the production line.

Version three, 100,000 units a month on the production line. So Elon Musk keeps reiterating, this is going to launch way faster than a car, massive. And so not only is it going to launch faster than the car, not only is it ahead of schedule, he thinks it's going to cost less than $20,000 to produce Optimus when they're making more than a million a year. So less than $20,000.

But then what is so interesting is unlike saying like, oh, we're going to be squeezed on margin. Now Tesla builds something that costs $35,000. They sell for $40,000.

They make $5,000 in profit. Now Tesla is going to be building something for $20,000. selling it for a hundred grand, making 80% margin on just the hardware, plus all this recurring software revenue for skills. I mean, It's insane. And so I loved what he said, market price, market demand is going to set Optimus'price.

This isn't going to be priced at a 10%, 15% margin, market demand. Everything I've heard about market demand for humanoid robots is insane. People are lining up at the door to buy these things, paying hundreds of thousands of dollars, doing whatever it takes to get their hands on one.

If Tesla can build it for anywhere near that price, margins are going to be insane. Now, that is why I think Elon actually says the most important thing. skill for Tesla's manufacturing because it's going to boil down to that cost advantage on the robot. Semi-truck, total cost of ownership, no-brainer, and massive demand.

And then they joke about how big of an impact it'll have on Tesla because a few billion in earnings isn't that much when you take out Optimus. And they're talking about the shortage of truck drivers in the US and how autonomy is going to be really helpful for that. But part of me really thinks that semi-truck is such a big idea because it's- It's in Tesla moving freight.

It's like a train car that doesn't need to be on a train. Once you have an autonomous truck, it's going to reduce the cost of trucking to compete with rail transport. And then you have an equally big opportunity of moving people as moving stuff. Right now, we're only talking about Tesla moving people. Once they start moving stuff, to me, that's just such a bigger part of the economy that we don't interact with every day other than ordering Amazon packages.

But we don't see it every day. And so I actually think... The semi-truck is great. It's a diversification of Tesla's business.

It's something you're going to buy whether you like Elon Musk or not because it's the total cost of ownership. It's going to make the road so much safer. How much of our accidents are caused by semi-trucks? How dangerous are those accidents because of how big the trucks are?

So there's a lot to be excited about with the semi-truck from like a product perspective, but is it going to drive the long term value of Tesla? Only if Optimus fails. Now, hardware three, there was a tidbit about how hardware three owners are going to need to update their...

uh hardware to get basically full self-driving our computers i have a v3 not a big deal um i like how elon gave the honest answer here but people have been wondering that so glad i got asked solar roof ramping a good question about the solar roof basically it's a premium product like srx instead of installing it themselves they're outsourcing it to this sort of network of roofers um and i don't know i still think the solar roof has insane potential if i was building a new house i would get one i know they're expensive but i do feel like it's not a focus for the company right now they just have other Fish to fry for the moment. Robotaxis. Oh, then we finally got to the analyst questions. Love how they got squeezed to the back.

Robotaxis in Austin and several other cities this year. I love that. And then they talk about regulation in the EU, how the EU is making them go through this massive committee in May to get approved.

They have to get all the countries approved. Just taking a massive amount of time and bureaucracy to get through even supervised full self-driving in Europe. So and I like his saying, like America innovates, Europe regulates, like Europe, GDP has fallen massively behind the US since they combined into the euro and have sort of stagnated in bureaucracy.

So I'm very curious of like, US is going to launch it, China is going to launch it, how much is Europe straggled? But and then also the data problem with China, of China, you know, they can't trade the data basically between China and the US makes it very hard to train these neural net systems. So I just think there's a lot of It's not as simple to just launch this thing as people think, especially when you're dealing with governments. So I'm only getting excited about the US for now.

Europe and China are going to take another year or two. And I think China comes way before Europe. And he also mentions that Tesla can keep its manufacturing going well, even if geopolitical tensions rise to very high levels. Love that for Tesla.

I mean, you think about how geographically diversified they are with factories on every continent, these vertically integrated supply chains. I mean, all that hard work. turns into a super resilient business for the long term.

That's what Elon's referencing there. Pierre, the French analyst, talks about the Austin launch of robo taxis, and they reiterate, like, it's going to be Tesla-owned cars, not your own car. It'll be 2026 when they let you put your own car on the network. And then right now, they're going to be scrutinizing everything, making sure it's super safe, and just toe in the water to start.

But in June, you will be able to call your autonomous ride. Then they talk about how they don't need EV incentives to keep electric vehicles going if Trump takes those away, and how battery production is the biggest roadblock to growth right now. So there is the conference call. I will post this transcript below.

Remember, it could be wrong. It's just my notes that I scribbled down while listening to the call. But I wanted to reiterate my takeaway here. I mean, I've listened to Elon Musk on conference calls for 12, for 13 years now.

He's this comp and we've seen lots of ups and downs i mean i've seen i've heard him very bullish and optimistic and this was one of those times and maybe one of the most ever like he is so dialed in and focused and has been hammering this autonomous car thing for so many years and we've all even myself been a little skeptical and like Elon's always a little too futuristic and out there, but it feels closer than ever. And it feels like it's actually happening. And Elon Musk confidence in that and real and now, you know, screw all the BS and hype and, and la-di-da-da and haters because we have a date and a time, June 2025 in Austin, the robo taxi service is launching like this is coming. And I think once it launches there, like, it's only gonna kind of accelerate this whole like, whoops, I gotta kill mini me in the corner.

It's only gonna, um, uh, It's just going to accelerate, and it's going to be this massive boom. Elon, a few years ago, I remember on the conference call when he said that Tesla was going to be the size of Apple. Apple at this time was $700 billion.

Everyone thought that was ridiculous. Fast forward a few years, they exactly hit those numbers. They crushed their profit and delivery expectations.

They produce billions. They make unheard of profits in the car industry and become a trillion-dollar-plus company, fulfilling his insane prophecy that no one thought was true. So we've seen Elon time and time again make these ridiculous claims, but unlike most people, he actually hits them. Maybe he's a year or two late, but with the Apple one, he wasn't.

And remember, and I like what he said on this call, the media only reports when he misses deadlines, not when he makes them. Tesla's actually made a lot of deadlines, and their whole strategy of making the impossible late by pushing these incredible deadlines has resulted in the commercialization of insane technology. So I, because of my own confidence using FSD, and it watching it improve and using it every day on my own car between hearing Elon Musk confidence between seeing the self the videos of the self-driving Teslas outside of the factory I mean Elon's tweeting unsupervised the moment that this moment is coming closer and closer than ever and um I don't know I mean I think if there's one thing I've honestly learned as a Tesla investor it's like very few CEOs are honest and keep it real with their shareholders Elon Musk is one of them and honestly like too honest and candid like he just doesn't do any of this corporate filtering and BS. And I think that gets into a lot of trouble because the whole world works with basically business people say fake stuff to pretend to be liked.

And Elon Musk doesn't do that, which I actually like him for that because he keeps it real. And I think that's one of the secrets to his authenticity. But that's what you have to unpack to understand why he's communicating.

We're always going to be self like it's and he makes this joke about the boy who cried wolf. And he's like, well, the wolf is going to come and it's going to drive itself. And so.

I just think this is one of the most fascinating moments in Tesla history right now. Elon Musk is saying this is the most important year, 2025. We're looking at a company that just did $7 billion in earnings, but is trading at $1.4 trillion, 200 times earnings. Yet, this may be the best large cap investment to make right now, despite that irrational, quote, irrational valuation, because of what's coming in the pipeline. 2027, 2028, it's sounding like tens of billions of profits or more are on the table and will continue to ramp up. big time from there.

And so that is not something I want to miss out on. I'm holding on to my Tesla stock, not selling. I mean, I've been holding on forever, you know, 13 years at this point. So it's still my number one position.

And by far, the most of my net worth is in Tesla. And that's not changing. But I do acknowledge the valuation is high.

There might be stumbling blocks. But what keeps me holding through all this, it's Tesla's like 20 startups in one. It's valued at one and a half trillion, but it's really a startup with several startups with multi-trillion dollar potential rolled up into there. You have a $37 billion balance sheet and a cashflow producing business today. That's your backbone.

So it's like Optimus and CyberCab are like never expiring call options because Tesla can fund itself till they get those technologies off the ground. So even if it takes till 2035, it doesn't matter. So my long story short is even though part of my intuition saying, oh my gosh, there's so much that could go wrong. There's such high valuation. I'm looking at the flip side of like, well, Tesla's actually got a rock solid balance sheet.

They have years to pull this off. Elon Musk has done the impossible time and time again. They have the best engineers in the world. It's not even Tesla.

The alpha in Tesla that Wall Street can't understand is what they haven't announced yet. And that's why this whole optimist thing has been fascinating because for so long, Wall Street just refused to acknowledge Tesla as anything else besides this low margin car company. Then they're a high margin car company. Then they say they're going to build humanoid robots with all their.

you know, expertise that they've already developed in manufacturing things in-house. And that wasn't on the spreadsheet. No other car companies had a successful robotics business.

No one's ever launched the iPhone 2.0 computer product that's a personal computing device that everyone has that follows them around. Like, this is going to be bigger than the iPhone. And so that's a product that came out of Elon Musk's brain. That's 10x the size of Tesla and 10x the size of the investment, blown every calculation for IRR and financial nerds out of the water because Elon Musk invented something else and put it in Tesla.

So when you think about investing in companies, it's so important in the era of hyperchange and things are changing rapidly, the leadership who's running your company, what products they have in their head based on their technologies that they haven't announced yet. I mean, that's where the alpha is. And Wall Street lives in this in-the-box world of we can't put it in our spreadsheet, then we don't really know it. And so now they're trying to put self-driving cars in the spreadsheet.

They're trying to put robots in the spreadsheet. And it's breaking the system of how to value companies. And the question is, what does Elon Musk invent next?

He said airplanes are going to go electric. I mean, right now Tesla can grow 100x with just their current product lineup. So I think they'll focus on that. But it's just a fact that... This whole Tesla investment has been a fascinating case study on leadership.

The most important asset or liability a company has is not in the financial statements. It's in the boardroom. It's who is leading the company.

You want to invest in owner-operator founders. It's, you know, what do I do if I'm not YouTubing and making videos on stocks? I run my VC firm, HyperGwomp.

We invest in like 30, 40 companies, 35 million bucks. Never met a CEO that's as good as Elon Musk. Like he is literally on another level to every founder I meet.

I've met with hundreds of founders. following all these companies. It's, and it's like, you know, people will call me an Elon Musk fan or all this.

It's like, I'm not a, I'm what? Like I've just objectively been analyzing his companies and they are so second to none in their pace of innovation and what they execute and the technologies they bring to market. It's, we're witnessing history and it's hard to put into words how special and unique of a moment it is, especially right now because it's Tesla's most important year ever. So I think that the je ne sais quoi. of Elon Musk being able to do the impossible and commercialize these technologies that change society and not only take value but unlock more value for the world in a way that we can't even fathom by taking away the burden of repetitive, boring, dangerous labor and having a robot or taking the burden away of driving from millions of people and saving hundreds of millions of hours of time or billions of hours of human time by this innovation.

That's what it boils down to. When you think about Tesla's two biggest innovations... They save humans time.

The two biggest innovations that will save humans the most time in the next 20 years are A, not having to worry about driving, and B, not having to worry about small tasks. Labor and transportation are going autonomous. And the cognitive load that that will free up for humans to focus on creativity, on other problems.

I mean, this is a, literally, I can't think of two bigger things that will save more human time than automating repetitive, dangerous labor. and driving. And so when you think about, you know, why was Uber such a valuable company?

They sold time, they sold convenience. And so when you really boil it down to it, that's what Tesla's focused on here. Their cybercam is going to be something that's a 10x improvement on three levels. It's 10x safer, it's 10x cheaper, it's 10x more sustainable to get you around. And so disruption expands the market.

Apple didn't just become the biggest phone company. They became the biggest company in the world because they turned the phone into a computer. When you turn a person into a computer, it's going to recreate the biggest company in the world, bigger than the smallest five companies combined. So I don't know.

I'm just kind of ranting here to end it, but I don't know. I made my first video analyzing the results like, eh, a little bit weak numbers for Tesla, margins hurting, valuations high, so many expectations. They're going to be able to pull this off. And then I listened to the conference call and it's like, dude.

If it takes a year and the share price is rocky for another year, who cares? I cannot miss this. There is so much coming.

I mean, Optimus is already walking around. That cyber cab's already driving around Giga Austin. Like, it's already happening. So anyway, this is HyperChange.

Never heard Elon Musk so bullish. Great time on the conference call. Let me know what you think of the comments below. I love streaming with y'all. And yeah, I'll see y'all next time.

This is HyperChange.

Transcript for:Tesla Conference Call Insights and Future

Transcript for:
Tesla Conference Call Insights and Future