Overview
This lecture explores why the West has historically dominated global power, analyzes long-term trends between East and West, and emphasizes geography as the key driver shaping human history, social development, and the future.
Competing Theories of Western Dominance
- Two main theories: long-term lock-in (West's dominance set by ancient Greece) vs. short-term accident (Europe pulled ahead only recently).
- Recent economic booms in East Asia challenge the lock-in theory.
- Debates often lack clear definitions and quantitative measures.
Social Development and Measurement
- "Social development" defined as a society’s ability to get things done: technology, organization, war-making, and information control.
- Developed a Social Development Index using: energy capture, largest city size (organization), war-making capacity, and information technology.
- Compared East and West from the end of the last Ice Age (ca. 14,000 B.C.) to present.
Patterns in Social Development
- Western social development led most of the time, except A.D. 550–1750, when the East was ahead.
- Major rises, stagnations, and collapses occurred, not a smooth upward trend.
- Both regions’ developments shaped by changes in geography and technology.
Geography as the Main Driver
- Geography determines where agriculture and complex societies begin (“lucky latitudes”).
- Social development can change what geography "means" (e.g., rivers, seas, steppe routes).
- Innovations in ships and guns enabled Western Europe to colonize the New World due to geographic proximity.
Key Historical Turning Points
- Mediterranean and Atlantic trade transformed Western economies.
- Scientific Revolution and Enlightenment in Europe were driven by geography-induced questions.
- Industrial Revolution began in Britain due to geography and economic pressures.
Future Trends and Predictions
- Social Development Index projects Eastern development surpassing the West by 2103 if trends continue.
- Next century could see more change than all previous history combined.
- Two possible futures: human transformation or large-scale disaster.
Risks and Optimism
- Historical collapses tied to five “horsemen”: mass migration, epidemics, state collapse, famine, climate change.
- Modern era faces the same risks, now with nuclear weapons.
- Despite risks, humanity has greatly reduced violence and learned to manage large-scale conflict.
Key Terms & Definitions
- Long-term lock-in theory — claims Western dominance started in ancient times and is permanent.
- Short-term accident theory — claims Western dominance is a recent, temporary development.
- Social Development Index — a quantitative measure of a society's technological, organizational, military, and informational capacity.
- Lucky latitudes — regions suited for early agriculture due to geography.
- Horsemen of the Apocalypse — symbolic for migration, epidemics, state collapse, famine, and climate change as causes of societal collapse.
Action Items / Next Steps
- Read “Why the West Rules—For Now” for detailed methodology and further analysis.
- Reflect on how geography shapes social and technological possibilities.
- Consider implications of shifting global power and rapid technological change.