Week in Charts Lecture Notes

General Intro

• Hosted by Charlie Belal.
• Focus on important charts and themes in markets and investing.
• Opportunity for a free wealth path analysis through Creative Planning.

Key Topics Discussed

1. CPI Report and Inflation

• Rising Prices at a Slower Pace
  • CPI at 2.4% in September, lowest since February 2021.
  • Core inflation slightly higher than expected at 3.3%.
  • Major components of CPI lower than June 2022 peak.
  • Auto insurance rates significantly increased, 52% over three years.
  • Shelter CPI at 4.9%, lowest since February 2022, still elevated.
  • Core CPI stable, not decreasing significantly.
  • Health insurance in CPI inaccurately reported as declining.

2. Market Expectations & Federal Reserve

• Market expectations now aligned with Fed's projections.
• November and December rate cuts anticipated, totaling 100 basis points by year-end.
• Fed's 2% inflation target discussed as unrealistic; cumulative inflation high since 2020.

3. Housing Market

• Housing market in a standstill due to high inflation rates for new home buyers.
• Mortgage payment requirements have increased significantly.

4. Interest Rates and Economic Trade-Offs

• Benefits of Rate Cuts
  • Relief for credit card debt holders due to tied short-term interest rates.
• Costs of Rate Cuts
  • Potential increase in inflation as a hidden tax.
  • Trade-offs for stimulating the economy vs. controlling inflation.

5. Mortgage Rates

• Rising mortgage rates despite Fed cutting rates due to long-term treasury security influences.
• Inflation expectations causing rise in 10-year yields contributing to mortgage rate increases.

6. Monthly Treasury Statement

• Delayed treasury statement raises concerns over transparency.
• National debt increasing significantly; interest expenses at a record high.

7. Goldilocks Moment in Economy

• Rare moment where everything seems balanced (not too hot, not too cold).
• Cooling inflation, growth in job market, expanding economy, rising corporate earnings.
• Stock market exceeding expectations.

8. Rising Real Wages

• Real wages in the US rising, a key driver of long-term prosperity.
• 17 straight months of positive wage growth vs. inflation.

Conclusion

• Closing remarks encouraging audience engagement.
• Overall positive outlook with some caution advised regarding inflation and rate cuts.