they've cut back on their purchases of Russian oil Uh they did so because of the US sanctions under the Biden administration So they might talk about being friends forever but they're they're reigning in a little bit in terms of the economic relationship with Russia just to see where it goes Hello and welcome to Front Line for Times Radio with me Kabau and today we are joined by Scott Lucas professor of international politics at the Clinton Institute at University College Dublin Scott is also editor and chief of EA Worldview and a regular commentator for us Scott good to see you again Thanks for joining us on Front Line Thank you for having me Two soon senior US officials are are reported to be saying the US will be unable to secure a UK crane peace deal in the next few months And as things stands it does look like the prospect of even a ceasefire is unlikely for some time Welcome to reality Uh I mean I I think that even when the Trump administration entered direct talks with the Russians uh in February and then they began to talk to Ukraine most of us said it would be some time before we had even a glimmer of a ceasefire And that is proving to be true And the main reason is and we need to be clear is because the Kremlin only will accept a ceasefire if it is on its terms in those terms effectively are still an ultimatum to Ukraine Uh the specifics of what have happened is that uh the US and Ukraine got to the point uh a couple weeks ago where they said okay let's have a a partial ceasefire on attacks on energy infrastructure Now the Americans wanted to go further In fact Ukraine had said "Look we'll have a halt on attacks in the Black Sea." Uh and the Americans said "That would be good Look let's also have a halt to attacks on the front line." And Ukraine of course which is trying to draw in the Trump administration said "Yeah we'll take all that." All the Kremlin would agree to at least for halting the attacks on energy infrastructure But in fact in the past two weeks those attacks on energy infrastructure have continued Uh there are drone and missile strikes every night Uh there have been power outages in parts of Ukraine from the strikes Last week the US and the UK sorry the US and Ukraine said "Okay let's agree on this halt to attacks on shipping in the Black Sea and they sent it across to the Kremlin." And some news organizations mistakenly reported that Moscow had agreed to it They hadn't What Moscow said is "Oh well you know it'd be great to have a ceasefire in the Black Sea but look for that to happen you have to lift sanctions on us You have to lift sanctions on our financial institutions that handle food and fertilizer exports the transactions for them." But they went even farther because to do that Moscow said "You have to reconnect our banks to the Swift global transaction system." Now that covers transactions for things well beyond food and fertilizer And of course it was one of the big steps to limit Russia in 2022 after their full-scale invasion So the Russians really have not made any concessions If anything what they've done is they've restated these ultimatum And just to put them out there because it's important to emphasize this they've said "Look you have to recognize our long-term occupation and indeed our annexation of not just the Crimea Peninsula which they've had since 2014 but four regions in Ukraine Two in the east two in the south Parts of those regions are held by Ukraine because they they reclaimed them in 2022 And Russia in effect is saying you have to give us that territory as well All four of these regions but the rest of Ukraine has to be kept weak and demilitarized neutral in the Kremlin's terms which means no security guarantees from the west U then of course all sanctions lifted on Moscow And finally last week Vladimir Putin restated his argument which is the Zalinski government has to go He framed it as the UN has to bring in a transitional government an interim government which will supervise elections Right at that point I do think Donald Trump in in his Trump world snapped I I mean I don't think it was an actual fake where Trump came out on social media and said we're going to impose secondary sanctions on Russian oil exports So if someone takes Russian oil like India like China we'll sanction them U because Putin had made this demand that the Zilinsky government would have to go Now Donald Trump a few weeks ago called Vladimir Zilinsky a dictator lied that he only had 4% support But in the past few weeks of course UK US has been negotiating with Ukraine Trump has been maybe I can get the shiny of a ceasefire deal And I get my photo with it And now Vladimir Putin is threatening it So the question here is how much has the Kremlin backed itself into a quarter with his ultimatum or I'll give you the sequel to this Can it get out of this with the visit of a highle Russian official to Washington this week yes I'll ask you a little bit more about that in a moment But yeah interesting though the interpretations of Trump's reactions here they they vary widely between saying when he says quote unquote that he was finally pissed off with the whole situation Having said that if you look at what he does and doesn't do almost within the same breath he then expresses the frustration that and threatens Zilinski over this minerals deal should he not sign a new one So on the one hand he's expressing anger and and has he actually done anything yet in terms of leverage on Moscow it doesn't look like it does it and on the other hand he's threatening Zilinski So at the end of the day you could say it's more of the same Yeah Except in terms of the media cycle and I absolutely take what you said about Zilinsky and we'll talk about that rare earth minerals dynamic in a minute Uh but the news cycle most people focused on him getting upset with Putin because it hasn't happened before and not on him getting mad at Zalinski because he has done that repeatedly So in terms of news cycle it framed up terms of that Trump was mad at Putin And what it did is there's a space where Ukraine and the adults in the room the responsible Trump administration officials and especially Europeans who have played a big part in this they still have the diplomatic initiative Now diplomatic initiative doesn't mean we're going to get a ceasefire Kremlin is going to it but it still looks like that Ukraine has the high ground that they are the ones who are negotiating in good faith and Russia is not And while that impression is there even though the Trump administration is not authorizing new military aid to Ukraine it is not holding up the military aid that was already authorized And of course it's renewed the intelligence sharing So I I Ukraine is in a better position now than it has been in the past couple of months And even though Trump swings back and forth right now there's sort of a constancy which is is that there is a a Europe US Ukraine channel which is keeping Keev in terms of we're the guys that are actually being responsible here The Kremlins are the Kremlins the ones who are are basically being irresponsible by standing in the way of getting some resolution In that light what strategy can the Europeans and Ukraine actually pursue diplomatically with the US to keep Donald Trump on side you keep Trump from running after some shiny bobble which means he goes back into Vladimir Putin's pocket So let me flip that question by tell you where we are as you and I speak and what Ukraine and Europe have to guard against There's a man named Kirald Demitrif but I think very few people would have heard of him uh but he's a finance year He's head of the Russian sovereign wealth fund So he's an investment guy He's also a guy who has worked with the Trump camp for almost a decade You can go back to 2017 where he had back channel talks even before Trump took office with a man named Eric Prince who was most famous for being the founder of the Blackwater mercenaries Anyway why do I mention Carol Demetri he's in Washington as we speak Two days of talks uh he's meeting uh initially a man named Steve Whit who was supposed to be Trump's envoy on the Middle East but has somehow transformed into Trump's envoy on Russia and that's not good I'm going to be very diplomatic about what I say here Uh because someone has to be Yeah exactly if it wasn't you know times out in such a regard but Steve Whit not the sharpest tool in the box when it comes to Ukraine and Russia a few days ago Um he gave an interview with the hardright ideologue Tucker Carlson where he talked all about Vladimir Putin loves Donald Trump so much He's such a good friend When Trump uh suffered an assassination attempt Putin prayed for him and it was and then he just he repeated the Kremlin's lines right so Demetrius gone to Witoff Now what has Demetri gone to Witoff with we don't know this It has not been officially admitted but a few days ago Kur Demitrif said "Wouldn't it be great if Russia and the US could have a deal on rare earth minerals right so you you take the fact that Ukraine is not going to accept the US ultimatum which is what it is on rare earth minerals Russia can fill the gap So Demetri is going to try that ploy with Witoff and then with Trump and this is access to rare earth minerals in Russia and Russian occupied territory in Ukraine See this is the stinger If if Trump accepts it what you then say is look at this territory we occupied You need to recognize our occupation and then you get even more minerals from this area Right so what do the Europe what does Europe and the Ukraine do in the face of this they expose what is being done They say 'L the priority here is the ceasefire The priority here is the halt to the killing We can certainly talk about minerals when we have the ceasefire but let's keep the focus on who is standing in the way of that And meanwhile what Europe does is continue the military and economic support for Ukraine You don't flag on that front either It's interesting I heard someone talk about um Donald Trump's foreign policy as being uh well the commodification of diplomacy was the phrase they use and if you had that kind of temptation with that visit to Washington that you just described um how do you think how tempted will he be with that compared to the argument that you're saying that the Europeans are using along with Ukraine let's get the ceasefire first Let's not talk about the business deals Let's get the but at the same time he's given the ultimatum to to Zilinsky on his proposed minerals deal Where does he where does he draw the line which way do we think he will go it depends on which advisers are influential in this You have to go a little bit beyond Donald Trump So let me add another element to the story Scott Bessant the Treasury Secretary who is the one who has presented the ultimatum to Ukraine which in effect is we get total control over your minerals right and you have to repay us every bit of aid that we've given you plus interest Ukraine is sending a delegation to meet Bezant this week in Washington So they're going to counter the Russian move right but that Ukraine delegation will also talk to other officials I suspect uh such as Mike Waltz the national security adviser I suspect they'll probably talk to the envoy Keith Kellogg and they'll try to get those guys you know lined up where they then go talk to Trump and they how do they spin it you know if they spin it with it which is we can get a great deal with Russia that's our priority That's a problem If they can spin it as you want this ceasefire then you still have the initiative So we're in a wait and see mode for a few days over that But meanwhile this is the other thing why and like I said this is never a positive situation for Ukraine They're still under threat of being conquered by Russia But you're buying yourself time because the interesting thing here is is that the Russian advance in eastern Ukraine has slowed uh they have taken some territory in the Daetsk region but they've taken very few towns and even that gradual advance is starting to get more limited The Russians are running into they're running into problems They're running into battlefield problems and they're running into economic problems in terms of how much they can keep their overheated economy going So even if you don't get a ceasefire as long as Europe stays behind Ukraine and you keep Trump in play where he doesn't simply side with the Kremlin you're doing okay There's been this unusual sign of cross party consensus 25 Republicans and an equal number of Democrats sponsoring a bill that could impose 500% secondary tariffs on buyers of Russian oil if Putin doesn't do a ceasefire deal with Ukraine It also included gas uranium and other products Trump is appearing to back it at the moment Could he effectively force President Putin to stop the war by cutting off the revenue that finances it well it this is a long road that you have to do First of all my reading of that u the fif and there are that's important 50 senators 25 each party a Republican Lindsey Graham who is a friend of Trump co-sponsoring alongside the Democrat Richard Blumenthal That's in the sense of being a resolution rather than a bill Now a resolution is largely symbolic We would like the administration to do this You still have to get from a stretch which is the administration would then implement those sanctions to put them in there And that's a big ask uh because how far would Trump go when he still wants to win favor with Putin he still wants the idea of the photo op with Putin But I think the significance here is is that the Republicans in Congress who have rolled over and accepted almost everything else Trump have done is they've set a marker down which is they do not want him bailing out on Ukraine They want the onus to be on Putin to make concessions Um and and I think that sort of again limits how far the Kremlin can go in terms of trying to spend Trump because guess who guess who those Ukrainians who are going to be in Washington next week guess who else they're going to meet with they're going to be meeting with legislators up on the hill Interesting Um when you say uh they've got to make uh the Moscow make concessions I mean what would be uh the least Moscow might do that would be acceptable kate I've always said that I think where the landing point is on this or I should say I've said for several months that where the landing point is is a parallel to where we are or where we were in the Cold War with West Germany and East Germany And that is that Ukraine realizes it cannot end that Russian occupation of about 25% of its territory in the near future So you freeze you freeze the attacks there Meanwhile you build up the rest of Ukraine with economic and military support Now what does that mean in terms of concessions you don't make the Russians have to withdraw from Ukraine but you don't allow the Russians to limit Ukraine's ability to get military assistance and security guarantees from Western partners I think you probably would have Ukraine moving quite slowly on accession to NATO That would probably be accepted Although they might expl not explicitly say it but I think Ukraine would not accept any limitation on its path into the EU So what does Russia get russia would get the territory that it holds in the short term It would get its own security guarantee that there will not be a renewal of attacks by Ukraine um to try to change that Um and it would probably get at least the limited assurance that Ukraine would not immediately go into NATO Uh but I don't think it checks the ability of Ukraine to build up its military and economic strength Again the way that West Germany did where it took 40 years We got to be honest here It took 40 years to get East Germany back But in the end West Germany did that not through a military invasion of the East It's because it was economically and politically a far more acceptable and stable system The first in-depth meeting of the coalition of the willing is taking place in Kev this week and we're speaking before that and before it's clear what might be discussed or what might be they might be willing to actually do What do you think the options are for discussion i I think it's actually ongoing from what we know that's already come out there So first of all what do you do in terms of supporting Ukraine regarding these talks and that is you know we you you make sure that even if Europe is not at the table that Ukraine is at the table that this does not revert back to the situation back in February of direct US-Russian talks which is where we were Secondly you plan for the idea that if we can get a ceasefire what do those security guarantees mean and those security guarantees do mean troops from some European countries um in Ukraine uh with some air cover for them so they're not attacked by the Russians And this is really the initiative led by Kier Starmer for the UK Emanuel Macron for France uh you will get continued talks in terms of maintaining financial economic assistance so that Ukraine's government continues to be effective and you maintain assurances in terms of protection of Ukrainian infrastructure especially energy infrastructure So you might see further commitments to Ukraine's air defenses that come out of this as well What do you think China is uh taking from the way these negotiations are unfolding at the moment we we saw Putin hosting China's foreign minister this week and we've seen China incidentally conducting at least two days of military exercises targeting Taiwan with rehearsal blockade and attacks involving 71 aircraft and 21 warships No may and I have to say upfront that very close colleagues of mine within there's sort of disagreement on this in terms of the level of support of China for the Russians I have some colleagues who think that behind the scenes you know China's fully aiding the Russian military invasion and continues to do so I'm more of the opinion that the Chinese are playing all sides here to keep their own options open And by that I mean is you know like they're going to continue to tell the Russians we have a strategic relationship You know that's fine Friends forever Yeah Friends forever you know and they'll say that uh there are individual Chinese companies who do contribute components that go to the Russian military but China is not going to give um I think at the official level military and economic support for that invasion to continue Uh I think they don't see the value of getting tied down with Moscow in what let's be honest is an invasion that the Russians haven't won and are not going to win for quite some time Because remember the Chinese also have to calibrate this in the context of the latest Trump tariff fiasco which means they're facing 54% tariffs they have to face it in terms of their position in terms of their relations not only with the US but their relations with Europe which they're trying to improve So they're going to play all sides there So what it means is just to give you something that hasn't got as as much notice they've cut back on their purchases of Russian oil Uh they did so because of the US sanctions under the Biden administration So they might talk about being friends forever but they're they're reigning in a little bit in terms of the economic relationship with Russia just to see where it goes Meanwhile the Taiwan dimension in this world of unpredictability they simply are protecting their space and then seeing how much they could possibly expand not with a military invasion of Taiwan but with pressure on Taiwan Um because if the world is distracted by Ukraine Russia if the world's distracted by Israel Gaza they've got more leeway to keep on saying no independent Taiwan No independent Taiwan And yes you will be part of one China someday We need to remind you of that Just on the you mentioned tariffs and just on the subject if I can mention uh Donald Trump's so-called liberation day Um why do you think Russia and Barus escape the the additional um tariffs i I think because you're in the middle of the uh of the negotiations where you're trying to get the ceasefire and the Trump administration has taken the position that any additional economic measure against the Russians So even before the latest on tariffs any additional sanction in addition to that which has been taken should not be imposed Right now of course we talked about the fact that they may put sanctions on secondary sanctions on oil if Russia doesn't move towards a ceasefire But if they still think they can get the ceasefire then they should avoid any type of economic measure I think it's it's pretty much as straightforward as that And and again that's the context in which the Kremlin has some space to send Dmitrif over to try to not only talk about no additional sanctions on us no additional tariffs but is there the possibility of easing some of the existing sanctions if if we play nice over the ceasefire talks A NATO meeting of foreign ministers is underway in Brussels today on Thursday were talking It's attended by the US Secretary of State Marco Rubio focusing on NATO's security priorities investment in defense ensuring lasting peace in Ukraine How is how is Ukraine shaping the future of the alliance do you think well first of all notice who is not there Where's the defense secretary Pete Hexith because Pete Hexith is not only going to be at the NATO meeting he's not going to be attending what's called the Rammstein format So these are the meetings in Rammstein Germany of the 50 countries who support Ukraine and that's been the main vehicle for that cooperation since 2022 just after the invasion So you know you're not this is the first time that a defense secretary from the US has not been at the Ramstein meeting Rubio although he is going to be at NATO is not meeting any individual European leaders as far as I know I think he is meeting Kaya Kalis uh the EU foreign policy head So you know there's sort of a downgrading of the US presence within NATO Uh I think you know there's been question marks as to whether the head of NATO for the first time may not be an American right uh because fact of the matter here is is that you have uncertainty about Donald Trump's commitment to the alliance you have uncertainty that's been exacerbated by the way he's handled the tariffs issue and I just have to say from my standpoint uh at the broad level for the first time since 1941 we do not have a US government alliance with Europe now we have some relationships that are still maintained so Rubio is at that NATO meeting more importantly American military figures still are involved in NATO discussions so you still have institutional cooperation within in NATO But even that institutional cooperation with NATO is threatened from another direction because of the purge of US agencies that's taking place through Donald Trump and his unelected co-president Elon Musk So the stability of relations within NATO for planning for logistics and for operations is under threat not just because of the unpredictability of Trump but because you have a Trump administration that simply does not see the need to put a priority on continuing business as usual with NATO So Scott um you you've studied these things for years now I'm just would to end I just really like to get an overview from you of how what your interpretation is on the security threats we're currently facing and how they've changed throughout your career I mean this is the the most unstable world since 1945 um and and I can walk it through various levels at the level of uh you know conflict We not only have Ukraine Russia um which clearly is I think the greatest threat to European security since World War II We've got the question of Israel's ongoing war on Gaza which has been renewed this week and the prospect of a long-term Israeli occupation of much of Gaza Now that will have knock-on effects throughout the Middle East uh you've got instability in terms of whether there will be uh US and Israel ramping up what could be an attack on Iran or whether we get to a settlement of that situation there You've got the competition between China and other countries including you know I could I could walk through the checklist in terms of military in terms of geopolitical Now we have I think what could be the most damaging uh economic situation since the 1930s the last time we had tariffs of the level that Donald Trump has just announced And as an umbrella for all of this what you have is that the international system flawed as it was and we could talk about why it's flawed but the international system that was created in the aftermath of World War II um you not only have it fracturing you have arguably the United States which was instrumental in that international system or at least you have a US government walking away from it Now that I think is the biggest threat that we have but I also think it out of every threat there comes if not an opportunity there comes a challenge in terms of what could be met Can Europe and within Europe I still include the UK despite the B- word Can Europe including the UK and other countries Canada Australia Japan South Korea other countries in Asia countries in Latin America countries in the Middle East uh countries in Africa Can you agree new rules of the game can you new agree new economic relationships new political and security relationships which do continue cooperation which continue multilateral approaches Um that will not be answered within weeks or months But we are at one of those points of history which is a hinge point Out of some hinge points we get destruction out of some hinge points like World War II we got the prospect that maybe we wouldn't go down that road again Well here we are in 2025 Scott I don't think you're going to be retiring anytime soon Um come back and talk to us again Scott Lucas Really great to speak to you Thank you for your time Stay safe Stay sane You too You've been watching Front Line for Times Radio with me Kate Chabau If you'd like to be the first to get exclusive content you can sign up for membership with the link below You can also listen to Times Radio for the latest news or read it on the times.com My thanks to our producer today Louis Sykes and to you for watching