Lecture Notes: Scientific Polling and Survey Methodology

Introduction

• Sweden introduced the concept of a scientific poll and a survey wall.
• Frustrations exist with pseudo-polls, push polls, and illegitimate polling.
• Discussion focused on clarifying what constitutes a legitimate, scientific poll.

Issues with Polling

• Pseudo-polls include fundraising or selling under the guise of polling.
• Invalid polls often have:
  • Inappropriate objectives.
  • Flawed sampling procedures.
  • Ineffective questionnaires.
  • Missing demographic data.

Characteristics of a Good Scientific Poll

• Systematic approach: Follow guidelines for drawing valid inferences.
• Target individuals as units of analysis.
• Proper sample selection.
• Aim to measure values, attitudes, and preferences while collecting demographic information.
• Allow extrapolation to a broader population (generalization).

Types of Surveys

Instrumentation

• Self-administered surveys: Questionnaires online or by mail (e.g., class evaluations).
• Interview-based surveys: Administered by professionals.

Scope of Surveys

• Sample surveys vs. full population surveys (e.g., a census).
• Trade-offs between sample size and survey depth.

Purpose of Surveys

• Broad surveys: Collect extensive data (e.g., national election studies).
• Narrow surveys: Specific objectives (e.g., class preference surveys).

Survey Design

• Cross-sectional surveys: Information at one point in time.
• Longitudinal surveys: Information over time, more costly.

Alternatives to Surveys

• Performance tests: Limited applicability and costly.
• Experimentation: Limited in social sciences due to ethical concerns.
• Observational approach: Costly, time-consuming, and less reliable.
• Text analysis: Useful for historical data but limited for current preferences.

Utility of Polling

• Essential for measuring public opinion and preferences.
• Important for both rulers and the public in a democracy.
• Crucial in organizational contexts for planning and feedback.
• Key methodology in social sciences for collecting data on human preferences.

Conclusion

• Surveys are indispensable in modern society for understanding public opinion and guiding decision-making.
• Despite limitations, they remain the primary method for collecting comprehensive data on individual and societal preferences.