War Simulation: China vs. United States

Hour 0

• Xi Jinping prepares for war against the US.
• Spent billions modernizing China's military.
  • 500 nuclear weapons.
  • One of the world's largest navies.
  • Largest active military personnel (2.035 million).
• Initial focus: Secure the Pacific.
• Bases in Japan, South Korea (190 total).
• China initiates cyberattacks on the US infrastructure and military systems.
• Targeted Systems: Water, electrical grids, communications, military transport.
• Important move: Attacking Taiwan to secure passage to the US.

Hour 1

• US scrambles to counter extensive cyberattacks.
• China's cyber efforts much broader than Volt Typhoon group.
• Next move: Activate the People's Liberation Army Rocket Force (PLARF).
  • PLARF: 120,000 members.
  • Operate six ballistic missile bases.
  • Approx. 4,000 missiles capable of targeting sea and land targets.
• Targets include Taiwan and US bases in Japan, South Korea, Philippines.
• China's goal: Weaken US Pacific Fleet (200 ships, 1,500 aircraft, 150,000 personnel).
• Missile Targets: US bases in Japan, South Korea, Philippines, Guam, and Hawaii.

Cyber and Missile Attacks

• Main objective: Distract and delay US response.
• Chinese cyberattacks cause significant disruption.
• Several missiles shot down; some hit crucial targets like Okinawa’s Kadena Airbase.
• US defenses prevent larger catastrophes but still overwhelmed.
• China's DF-27 hypersonic missiles aimed at Hawaii.
• US Ground-Based Interceptors (GBIs) step in for defense.

Day 2

• Xi focuses on invading Taiwan.
• Barrages with short-range missiles soften up Taiwan’s defenses.
• US defenses and Taiwan Patriot systems holding out.
• Taiwan’s Defense: Fortified beaches, alerts on major ports, cliff defenses, prepared retreats.

Day 3

• US prepares diplomatic and economic countermeasures.
• Heavy sanctions against China.
• Cut off China's oil and trade (over 80% impacted).
• Problem for China: Cannot sustain prolonged war without resources.

Day 4

• Biden invokes NATO's Article 5.
• NATO allies join the conflict supporting US.
• Strategy: Combine naval forces, with focus on Taiwan Strait.
• US Allies: UK, Canada, Japan, South Korea (watch on North Korea).

Week 2

• China struggles to invade Taiwan.
• US and NATO naval forces move to Taiwan Strait.
• Rapid Dragon Tactic: Cargo aircraft dropping long-range missiles.
• Allies begin to turn tide against China.

Month 2

• US-NATO forces take control of the Taiwan Strait.
• Chinese troops in Taiwan get stranded.
• US and allies dominate air and sea.

Month 3

• China's navy lies in tatters, considering hypothetical nuclear option.
• Xi avoids nuclear war fearing US retaliation.
• Economic blockades and war pressure lead to China's capitulation.
• Outcome: US-NATO victory but at a high cost.

Reflection

• Scenario optimistic for US victory.
• Highlights importance of diplomacy, alliances, and strategic defenses.
• Questions for consideration:
  • Could China prevent this scenario?
  • Would the US/NATO truly maintain such support?