Lecture on Bitcoin and Golden Crosses

Introduction

A Death Cross occurs when the 50-day SMA (Simple Moving Average) falls below the 200-day SMA.
Usually signals local lows in the market:
- Examples from 2023, 2024, and 2025
- Historical pattern: Dump before the cross and rally after
Past examples:
- 2021 Death Cross marked a local low
- 2022 had a Death Cross followed by a rally
Importance of price action leading to a Death Cross:
- Negative price action is required
- Often causes panic selling
- Past Death Crosses resulted in rallies afterwards

Occurs when the 50-day SMA rises above the 200-day SMA
Generally leads to rallies:
- Bears sound smart, bulls make money
Not always the exact opposite of Death Cross
Considerations for Golden Cross:
- Markets tend to go up over time
- Golden Cross can lead to further rallies but sometimes marks a top temporarily

2023: Incorrect expectation of a dump after Golden Cross
2024: Corrective approach; no fade waiting
2019 and 2020 pattern observations:
- Golden Cross rallies
- Sometimes followed by dumps before continuing trend

Upcoming Golden Cross expected in a few days
Observations on historical patterns:
- Rally into Golden Cross
- Possible pullback post-Golden Cross with continued trend
Potential support areas:
- Bull market support band, 50-day, and 200-day SMAs around 90K to 93K

Historical weakness for Bitcoin in Q3 (July, August, September)
Possibilities:
- Higher high leads to higher low in Q3
- Lower high could imply lower Q3 low
Bitcoin dominance tends to rise during consolidation periods
Altcoins underperform compared to Bitcoin

Bitcoin provides exposure to upside while minimizing downside risk
Importance of monitoring Bitcoin dominance
Potential outcomes for Bitcoin price and market structure:
- If the market maintains structure above 2024 highs, confidence remains
- Golden Cross may result in temporary pullback followed by continued trend