Consumer spending accounts for 68 to 70% roughly of the US economy when you measure it by GDP. If people aren't happy, people aren't going to spend. And there's a new poll out that says that people aren't happy. I want to break it down in today's video. This is a fresh survey. It shows most Americans are not feeling very good about the economy right now. In fact, fully 71% describe the current US economy as poor. And that is not an insignificant number. Only 28% say the economy right now is in good shape. And of those, just 3% rated as very good. Now, this is a clear signal that confidence is very low. I'm going to unpack why that might be in this video today. Now, what is dragging the people down? Well, let's start with what folks are actually worried about. According to the poll, the top economic concern for families is, no surprise, the cost of living. The survey asked, "In your own words, what would you say is the biggest economic problem facing your family today?" Now, 58% pointed to everyday expenses like food, housing, energy, and healthcare as their biggest economic pain point. Inflation alone, that was specifically named by 28% followed by food cost at 16% and general cost of living at 15%. It gets kind of worse, I think. 24% of respondents brought up personal financial worries like living paycheck to paycheck or struggling to save for retirement. and 17% mentioned jobrelated issues such as stagnant wages and employment insecurity. So it's not just one issue that people are grappling with here. This is a full spectrum of the financial stress that people are feeling. Now here's where things get political. The survey also asked about President Trump's economic and tariff policies and the response was I would say mixed to put it gently. Question was asked do you think Donald Trump's policies have and then there's a few options to choose from. Well, 59% say that Trump's policies have made the economy worse. When asked, "How do you think Donald Trump's policies have affected the cost of living in your community?" 60% believe his actions have increased the cost of living in their own communities. And then when asked, "Do you think Donald Trump's actions on tariffs during his second term so far have been good policy or bad policy or neither?" Well, 55% said bad with just 28% supporting them. Even more telling is that only 42% think he even has a clear strategy when it comes to tariffs. So that's kind of floating out there in the wind. Now the real twist here is this. When you look at Trump's supporters, obviously they see a very different picture. Amongst those who approve of him, 76% feel optimistic about the economy, enthusiastic in fact, and a majority believe that his policies are working. You compare that to only 5% who are optimistic amongst his detractors. And when you see that kind of split, to me it clearly points towards a deeper trend. The economic sentiment is really heavily shaped by your political leanings, by your political identity. It's not just what's happening in the economy that's affecting you. It's how you feel about who's running it. What does that mean going forward? Well, there's a growing sense of unease out there. 66% of Americans describe their feelings about the economy as either pessimistic or afraid. And 69% believe that a recession is likely in the next year. So that's nearly seven out of 10 people who are bracing for a downturn and remember the important role that consumer participation uh plays in the overall economy. Now something I found very interesting here even in the face of all this gloom almost half say that they are satisfied with their personal financial situation. The question was overall would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with your own personal financial situation? 47% of the total respondents said yes they are satisfied. So that's a little bit of a paradox we're seeing here. People are managing, but they're still not confident that it's going to last. I thought of an analogy. It's kind of like if you're driving down the highway, your car is working fine, the fuel gauge is dropping. And, you know, being from Manitoba, I I remember the winter storm clouds that are forming up ahead. You're not at the point where you're panicking yet, but you might be, you know, sort of gripping the steering wheel a little bit tighter. You're preparing for trouble, right? Not there yet, but you're getting ready in case it does come along. So, there's a few questions that uh raise when we look at this. Is the economy really that bad or is it just how people are feeling? Um, are we letting the headlines and politics drive public sentiment more than the actual numbers themselves? If you watch this channel, you'll know that I try and keep us focused on the numbers as much as possible. And when I look at things right now, I see recession fears, rising prices, a lot of policy uncertainty out there. These are all very real concerns, but the public mood can swing faster than these economic indicators that we do keep track of here. So, I read the poll over the weekend. And I thought it was very interesting. And one thing that makes very clear to me is that Americans are extremely anxious. It might be inflation. It might be the tariffs. Might be just a general fear of what's next. That's sort of that uncertainty and the economic mood is definitely more stormy than sunny right now. It's more about how they view the country's direction. Let me know what your thoughts are in the comments. Are you feeling optimistic or uneasy about the economy right now? I would love to hear what you are thinking. Now, I want to move on to the big Fed rate which is coming up this Wednesday. the Fed rate decision. President Trump and his top administrative officials, they have been ramping up the pressure, including even the threat to fire Jerome Pal. But all that said, the Federal Reserve, they're expected to keep interest rates unchanged when they announced on Wednesday of this week. The Fed target rate currently sits at 4.25% to 4.5%. And Chairman Pal, he's been pretty clear that the central bank isn't going to act without taking proper consideration and especially uh with the economic uncertainty out there that's tied to Trump's tariffs. Now, the flip side, of course, Trump, he's been very vocal about wanting a rate cut. He's posted on Truth Social that there's no inflation. But when you look at the actual government data, it contradicts that. You still see grocery prices rising. You see gas average well above what Trump claims to be $1.98 a gallon. When we look at the Fed watch tool here on Wednesday, 97% expect that the Fed will hold at the current rates. We look ahead to June, that drops about 68% with 31% believing that the Fed will lower rates by 25 basis points. And if we look as far as ahead as July, then we finally get to 56% that expect a rate cut, still leaving 22% saying that it will be a hold. Vincent Reinhardt, he is the chief economist at BNY. And he has some insight into Jerome Poll and he says that the Fed is scarred by what happened back in 2021. We'll all remember inflation surged way beyond what the expectations were and he's saying that the Fed will be more cautious this time around. He says that's a Fed that is going to have to wait for evidence and be slow to adjust on that evidence. The bank's credibility took that massive hit back in 21 and officials of course want to avoid uh repeating that mistake. Currently inflation remains above that 2% target, but it did pull back a little bit. We'll notice that in March. Of course, tariffs. This is a big reason that the Fed won't cut rates just yet. Pal has warned that they will drive prices higher, possibly in a somewhat of a lasting way, and that will make it risky to lower borrowing costs. Right now, Preston Buuy, he is an economist at Employee America, and he says, "You could imagine a world where there isn't pressure from the Trump administration and they cut rates sooner because they feel comfortable making the argument that they're doing it because of the data. But right now, any cut could feel politically motivated and that's something that the Fed wants to avoid." Now, my final story for today, I couldn't do this without talking about uh Warren Buffett announcing his retirement. And yes, he will be stepping down as the CEO of Berkshire Hathaway by the end of the year. And that will end an era that has defined the company for more than six decades now. I don't know if you were at the meeting this past weekend or whether you watched it on TV, but pretty much everybody, well, everybody was caught off guard when Buffett made the announcement at the close of the annual general meeting. This week's poll question in our Pulse newsletter was, "What impact will Warren Buffett's retirement have on the share price of Berkshire Hathway over the coming year?" Now, if you're not a subscriber already, you can just scan the QR code on your screen here, and you can weigh in on that debate. So, Buffett is retiring. A lot of people uh feel the company will remain on solid ground under current vice chairman Greg Gable, who of course will become CEO. But there are questions about how the market and the shareholders are going to respond once Buffett actually fully exits the spotlight. Mark Malik, he is a chief investment officer at Sebert NXT and he posted on X, there has been a premium on Birkshshire because of Buffett. Will people look at it in the same way? And to me, that really is the biggest question here. I have no doubt that the company is going to continue to thrive, but what about that Buffett premium? That's sort of the the real reason that people have stuck with this company for so many years through thick and thin. That's something that we're all going to have to watch to see what happens. Uh on that front, everyone is now trying to figure out how Greg Ael will handle the pressure once he becomes the top dog. So far, from what I've read, most are expressing a bit of confidence, you know, quite a bit of confidence in Abel's leadership. One example is Daniel Hansen. He's a portfolio manager at Newberger Burman and he says this is Buffett's baby and he thoughtfully and deliberately planned for an orderly secession that does not disrupt the value of his life's work. I don't think you can really overlook how carefully Buffett must have thought this through as he'd been planning for the handover. There are some who are drawing comparisons of the Apple transition from Steve Jobs to to Tim Cook with Able being described as well aligned with Bruff's values while bringing his own investment style. He is expected to be more involved in the day-to-day now but without disrupting uh the company's decentralized approach. He is going to have to tread a very fine line here between sort of maintaining what Buffett build that environment that is so uh inherent in the company. Now he still also has to make his own mark. Obviously he has already signaled some subtle shifts. He says he will be more active but hopefully in a very positive way. I don't think we should expect any rapid changes here. When you think of Bergkshire's enormous size, the structure of the company itself, it's not conducive to making very quick moves, even though we'll be watching to see if Abel unloads some of the underperforming assets more quickly than Buffett had a tradition of doing. Now, in the end, Buffett's legacy that is going to loom large on this company. He has this strategy of long-term investing, hands-off management, and that changed the way that many approach the markets and investing in general, especially his strategy. and one that he lived up to of his, you know, buy and hold. That's very different from the sort of the more quick selling techniques that a lot of other investors use. Now, I am a shareholder of Berkshire Hathaway. I don't plan on selling anything, but I do have to say I also can't imagine making what is actually a pretty expensive trip down to Omaha to attend any more annual meetings. This is no offense to Greg, but I probably share the thoughts of many other shareholders. Now, don't forget to vote in this week's poll question. Will Buffett's retirement have a material impact on Birkshshire? You can vote for free. Scan the QR code here.