How an India-Pakistan Nuclear War Could Start and Have Global Consequences

Authors

• Alan Robock
• Owen B. Toon
• Charles G. Bardeen
• Lili Xia
• Hans M. Kristensen
• Matthew McKinzie
• R. J. Peterson
• Cheryl S. Harrison
• Nicole S. Lovenduski
• Richard P. Turco

Abstract

• The hypothetical scenario of an India-Pakistan nuclear war, exploring local and global impacts.
• Estimated casualties: 50 to 125 million, depending on weapon yield (15, 50, 100 kilotons).
• Long-lasting ramifications for society and infrastructure in both countries.
• Global climatic effects due to smoke from the war, extending beyond Asia.

Scenario of Conflict (2025)

• Terrorist attack on Indian Parliament leads to escalation.
• Both countries mobilize troops; skirmishes occur.
• Indian Army crosses the border into Pakistan, prompting nuclear response from Pakistan.
• Tactical nuclear weapons used by Pakistan; strategic nuclear weapons by India.
• Escalation leads to widespread use of nuclear weapons, affecting urban areas.
• Pakistan uses all its strategic arsenal; India reserves some for deterrence against China.

Reasons for Potential Conflict

• History of conventional wars and skirmishes between India and Pakistan.
• Political tension in Kashmir, particularly post-2019 changes by India.
• Despite no first use policy by India, nuclear escalation possible due to miscommunication, panic, and technical failures.

Climatic Effects

• Atmospheric smoke from nuclear war affects global climate.
• Smoke amounts modeled: 16.1 to 36.6 teragrams, depending on weapon yield.
• Smoke would reduce global temperatures and precipitation, similar to a nuclear winter.
• Agriculture would be severely affected, risking global famine.

Conclusion: Limiting Nuclear Weapons

• Nuclear weapons intended for deterrence but have catastrophic potential.
• Importance of conflict resolution and negotiation to prevent war.
• Need for global effort and treaties to abolish nuclear weapons.
• Current global situation shows proliferation risks and the need for disarmament.

Supporting Research

• Investigations into the cooling effects and agricultural impacts of nuclear war.
• Importance of disarmament treaties and political action towards nuclear abolition.

Figures

• Fig 1: Urban targets in the hypothetical scenario.
• Fig 2: Global average precipitation and temperature changes.
• Fig 3: Temperature changes over oceans and land.
• Fig 4: Changes in net primary productivity over land and oceans.

Acknowledgments

• Supported by the Open Philanthropy Project.

Key Contributors

• [Detailed bios of each author provided in the document.]

References

• Multiple studies cited regarding nuclear winter and global impacts (e.g., Toon et al. 2019, Mills et al. 2014).