Hi, everyone. Welcome to today's video. On
today's video, I'm going to discuss some of the critical changes that I'm making on my
portfolio. I believe that there is a lot of risk in the markets right now, so I'm
repositioning my portfolio. For example, I have sold my small cap 250 Index fund, the
entirety. It was a lot of money. I had put it in front of you last year, so I've exited that
completely. I'm adding a lot more US stocks, and there are certain types of mid-cap to
large-cap companies that I'm adding into my portfolio. I'm going to talk about to give you a
flavor as to how you can reposition and rebalance your portfolio. For people who are new to my
channel, my name is Akshat Shrivastava. I am a full-time investor now. I travel across the globe,
gain insights, work with a lot of HNI's. I'm running my hedge fund. I get to speak with a lot
of rich people who are running their businesses, investing money on full-time basis. So whatever
insights that I get from them and through my own experiences of building and managing a fairly
big portfolio, I try to share it with all of you. So on that note, let us kickstart our video and
let me take you point-wise as to why am I making certain type of changes on my portfolio. So the
first key major change that I have made on my portfolio is to cut my entire small cap position.
So I'm going to show you. This is one of my mutual funds, and this is something that I had built
publicly last year. You can see that I'm sitting on roughly 40% gain here. XiRR is only 26 now
because I have cut my small cap funds. Now, why have I cut my small cap index funds? The reason
is very simple, and I will tell you from here. Since the last one year, since I have purchased,
the small cap gave a run-up of roughly 115%. Out of this, I was able to capture roughly 90%. If a
snapshot over, I will attach it here also, that how I was able to capture 90% of this. And since
then, small caps have corrected a little bit, but not a big deal. For this, you need to take a
slightly long term view. Let me share that also. Let's look at from pre-COVID levels, and the
total run-up is 230, 240. Now, typically speaking, the return mathematics is that if you're looking
at large gaps, so just like Nifty50 are large gaps. So this may approximate, yearly return is
12.5% If you look at the small cap mid gaps, it has been fairly bullish. So for last four years,
we have made how much? Approximately 250%. Okay, so. Now what has happened pre-2020 is if you
look at the small cap index pace from 2017 all the way till 2020, they had actually come
down. So up your sorry return mathematics if you put and try to compile and understand what
you will figure out. In this zone, the small cap mid-caps had fallen. In this zone from 2020
to 2024, very good run up. So this return A, return B, if you do the mathematics, It comes
out to be fairly average returns. I would say that it would be around 24, 25% CAGR. Here
we are at best fairly valued. And overall, the market risk right now looks little bit high,
especially from India's investing viewpoint. Now, what do I mean by India investing viewpoint?
This is a video that I had done earlier. Please go and check it out. On this video, I
had explained how do these stock prices move in India. Basically, in the last four years,
what has happened is that FIIs have sold the Indian market, and DIIs, which
are domestic institutional investors, they have bought the Indian market. They
typically buy a lot of mid-cap and small-cap companies. Because they have pension money to
handle and a bunch of other different things, they look for slightly lower risk investments
because for them, going to India itself is a slightly higher risk or emerging market
proposition. So they typically hedge their portfolios and all that. So they primarily deal
with large-cap stocks, futures and options. So that they can hedge their portfolio. Because
for them, India is just a small market in their entire portfolio game. So they look for slightly
lower risk, but still high growth options. Diis look for extremely high risk or high reward
options, so to say. And in the last four years, the SIP market has gone up like crazy. So a lot of
money has flown into SIPs, and a big chunk of that money has moved into mid-cap and small-cap.
So right now, I'm not saying that from here. Let me pull up that chart again because this is a
very important points. For example, if we go here, this is the small cap chart. I'm not saying that
this entire gain will be wiped out. Maybe it will now consolidate, it will go up, down, and all that
stuff. At least for a few months or a few years, maybe there can be a consolidation in this
space. So this looks a little bit risky. There is no massive reward that I'm expecting by
holding a lot of positions in small cap indices, per se. So therefore, I'm cutting it. I'm
cutting my small cap position. So this is the first major change that I'm making onto my
portfolio. Now, what is it next that I'm doing? So by picking up this money, I'm looking for some
mid-cap to large-cap opportunities. A very good case study would be something like CAMPs. So
I'm going to tell you about CAMPs. If you do fundamental analysis of CAMPs, what you will
find is this.. Cdsl ,Cams, two of them. And you can see that it went all the way from
it. My community has benefited from it. My students have benefited from it because this
is one of the stocks on which I had given. Made lot of 80-90% returns and you can see that
it went all the way from 2000 to roughly 4000. So now it is correcting a little bit. So let me
just show that to you on charts. What do I mean? For example, here you will see. So from its peak,
it has corrected by 15%. Now, this is a dip that is there. So a natural question to ask is that,
Hey, is this a dip or can it correct further? So for this, this is This is a channel. Maybe
it will correct till here, and then maybe it will bounce back or it might get broken down. If
we do the industry-level analysis, then we have to understand in which category, CAMS, CDSL type
of companies operate. They operate in what? They operate in stock market. If the stock market
is typically going up or if the stock market is even going sideways, I don't think companies
like CAMHS, CDSL, get hurt. They get really hurt when the stock market is going down. Now, what
happened is that in India, the entire Sebi issue is blowing up. Now, this has become a political
war. If the stock market has gone down, if the 30% correction has gone down, then Congress will
say, Look, we're doing this shit, all that stuff. And what the government will
say, You know what? Stock market is not falling. We have managed the stock
market. So since the stock market is not falling, there is no scam. So stock market returns
have now become an ego issue and a political issue between the two parties. So what I
feel or my prognosis as an investor is, market can be taken sideways. There is
unlikely to be a very deep correction in the market. When I say deep correction, it means more
than 20% correction in the stock market, which can be sustained. Now sustained means that the market
is going to be 20%. Now, It is just hanging there only for maybe one, two years. So I don't think
if you are keeping a three-year viewpoint, there is any reason to panic on stocks like CAMS, CDSL
types of stock. So I'm still aggregating them, and I'm trying to buy them at dips. So this
is one block that I have already invested. In case you guys are interested in learning more
about fundamental analysis, getting quick time updates from my side, you can do two things.
One is that you can join the member community. That is very important. I give very quick updates
there. If you're someone who is new, who is not confident about investing in the stock market,
I run live courses. Feedback has been excellent. Here are some LinkedIn posts you yourself can
go and check. These are genuine posts. You go and speak with those people. They have attended
my course. They have really benefited from it. I teach everything from scratch. In case you're
interested, there is a live batch coming up. You can check the links in the description and comment
box. My batches usually get full within a week of launching. So in case you're interested, do sign
up quickly. The primary advantage of this course is the completion rate of online courses
is less than 5%. That is what the MOOCs, massive online open course data tells us. But
for my courses, it is more than 95%. It is not by default, it is by design. That because I have
turned this into a live course, you get to engage, interact. Therefore, the completion rate
is very high. Therefore, you actually get value out of the course. Anyways, coming back,
I hope that this concept of CAMs is also clear. Then comes another natural question that, okay,
what about stocks like Aavas? Because they are also small cap. You had earlier purchased
it. Are you exiting your position? What is it that you're doing? It's a very quick
commentary there also. See, guys, basically, Aavas is still available at a discount, one
could argue. For example, this is your 200-day moving average. It's not as if you are buying very
crazy right now. That's one. Second is that this is a lower-risk Why? I'll help you understand that
point also. See, first and foremost, the revenues, profits of company is all time high. There is no
issue with revenues, profit of the company. Second key point is that if you look at the business of
Aavas, what is it into? So you can see it is into housing finance. Housing finance is what happens?
That people take a loan for their house. And if the interest rates are low, they will
pick more loans. If they take more loans, then the revenue of the company is likely to
grow. So in what type of environment or what type of business cycle will Aavas benefit? Well,
it will benefit when the interest rates go lower. When are interest rates likely to go lower?
Well, in the next three to four months, US is almost given, is going to cut its interest
rate now. Why? Because the inflation data in the US has now come at a not historical all time low,
but very recent all time low. So from that note, it is almost given. Almost every single
economist is now predicting that US is going to do an interest rate cut. If they
do interest rate cut, what will India do? India is also likely to cut its interest
rate. And if India cuts interest rate, then companies like Aavas is going to benefit.
Which other companies are going to benefit? For example, Bajaj Finance, I'm going to tell you
technicals. For example, if you check, the stock was in a downtrend here, and this is from 2021.
This is when actually the entire stock market corrected between 2021 mid to 2023 mid. So that
was a correction time. Stock hasn't moved from this level to this, this. It's almost how many
years gone? Almost three years gone. 0% return on the stock.. Now, you'll say, you know what?
Jio is going to eat business into Bajaj Finance. Jio is going to eat business into Bajaj
Finance. Now, that does not mean that you stop buying companies that are competing with
Jio. Now, Jio will compete with EMC companies also. Jio might compete on insurance also.
Jio might compete with CAMPs also. Who knows? So Jio is going to eat all. Now, that does not
mean that this will happen by next year. So this will take time. What one could potentially do is
that have some geo also. I also I have geo on my portfolio. And I also have Bajaj Finance. Why?
Because Bajaj Finance is at a good level right now. It's not as if that you're buying this stock
really expensive. And with interest rate cuts, what is going to happen? Well, the consumer
lending space is going to improve. Consumer lending space, for the last few months, maybe like
8, 10 months, RBI has been very active. All that stuff. But I think that regulatory pressure is
going to ease. Interest rates are going to get cut. The moment that happens, this lending space
is going to pick up. Consumer loans are going to pick up. I had been speaking about two themes in
the last five, six months on my YouTube channel. For example, one stock that I discussed
was TCS.. It has already gone up. It has already gone up by 17, 18%. Open videos, you
go and check my old videos. I had spoken about TCS. If you have actually benefited from it, do
share your comment because they start trolling unnecessarily. They have all the things to say
in the world. So this is already going up. Again, this is a candidate that will benefit by interest
rate cut. This was one. Consumer durables, Voltas and Whirlpool were two of my picks. They
have done exceptionally well in the last six odd months. Go and check the data again. Those
have done exceptionally well. Why? Because that interest rate cut is already getting factored into
the market. Now, what are some high-risk stocks that you should be avoiding? See, first of the
things is that, in these stocks, there's a pump and dump. Never touch those stocks
because time is going to be really tough on these types of stocks going forward.
For example, this looks like a pump and dump. I made that entire video. You can again go and check
it. And then later, inquiry and it got evolved. So see, this was very renewable. All the way till
2,734. It makes no sense. And now if someone is buying it here, all I can say is that that
was just a very bad investment move. See, these type of stocks, I'm sure
that people who listen to me, they will anyways avoid. So this is not a
challenge. The challenge is to avoid good companies when they have become or it looks like
that they have become overvalued. Now for this, I'll tell you very quick Zomato story. See,
if we look at from IPO level, I had purchased Zomato at around 60. A lot of people who watch my
videos might have done the same. I don't know. So, from 60 to 260 almost four times. Now I've got my
position, almost 70, 75% of it. Why? Think about it. Who are the peers of Zomato? Swiggy. What is
the valuation of Swiggy in unlisted space? Well, it's between 11 to 13 billion dollars is the
valuation that you are getting for Swiggy, which is a competitor company of Zomato. What
is the valuation of Zomato? If you compare the number for this, the valuation of Zomato
comes out to be roughly $23, $24 billion. Swiggy is available at 60% price of Zomato. Now
I understand that Zomato might It has slightly better. It has made some very good business moves,
whatnot, but almost double valuation. Does it make sense? To me, it doesn't. I have rotated my money
from Zomato to Swiggy. In case you guys want to know how to do that, tomorrow I will write a post
on my member community, help you understand the challenges, how to do that in the unlisted space.
So these are all the points that I'm executing. The very quick macro picture is that over the next
few months, and maybe over the next few years, there is a very high chance of a time correction
in the market. The market. You have to make your returns. What do I mean by making your
returns? You have to study the stock, study the fundamentals, do not buy overvalued things, have
patience, have patience on good stuff for it to run. If you're buying something undervalued, hold
it. It's fine. It's not end of the world. Hdfc, it's not going to be a year, it's not going
to be a year, it will stop giving run up. It is probably one of the deepest undervalued
stocks right now. I ask my return. Whenever they run, they are so fast, that you will not
be able to catch it. You can only catch a good stock as a fundamental investor when it is down.
When a stock has run up, now you are getting the money to invest. At 260, it will be very difficult
for anyone to make good returns from a stock like Zomato if you're buying it now. You always make
money by buying undervalued and then cutting your position or reducing your position or selling your
entire stake when things look overvalued compared to its peers. That's a simple phenomenon. Again,
I teach all these fundamentals on my stock market course. In case you guys are interested, you can
join. Thank you so much for watching. I hope you enjoyed it. You learned something new. If you
did, do press a like button and I'll see you soon.