Have you ever encountered someone who staunchly defends a politician, leader, or public figure, regardless of the controversial statements they make? I'm sure we've all seen those devotees who passionately praise their chosen idol despite obvious flaws in logic and judgment. Let me ask you this.
Have you ever been baffled by why an otherwise intelligent friend blindly follows a pundit who routinely argues against common interest? or why someone excuses a wealthy businessman's callous policies by pointing to their financial success as proof of profound wisdom? If you've had frustrating experiences with seemingly intelligent yet stubborn devotees of irrational leaders or policies, then you'll likely relate to Carlo Cipolla's famous writings on human behavior. Cipolla was an economic historian and professor who formally studied and classified various types of foolish thinking, teaching at the University of California, Berkeley.
In the 1970s, Cipolla became fascinated by patterns of stupidity and unintelligent decision-making across societies throughout history. While we often think of stupidity as simply a lack of knowledge or intelligence, Cipolla argued it has fundamental laws and predictable root causes independent of other traits. His satirical yet insightful treatise proposes that human stupidity follows distinct mathematical patterns, governing choices that go against common sense and self-interest.
As the basis for his theory, Cipolla categorized people into four behavioral groups. The intelligent, those who benefit both themselves and others. The bandits, those who benefit only themselves by harming others. The unfortunate, those who cause harm while trying to help others.
The stupid, those who harm both themselves and others. Cipolla argued it's this last group of stupid people, driven by an innate tendency towards nonsensical decisions that damage even their own interests, that baffles intelligent observers. And the root causes driving such stupidity come from characteristic flaws like arrogance, self-delusion, persistent ignorance, absent-mindedness, and more. Cipolla's first law of stupidity is, always and inevitably, everyone underestimates the number of stupid individuals in circulation.
Here, Cipolla means that people assume at any given time that individuals thinking or acting stupidly. must be a small fringe group among the general population. We figure societies couldn't function otherwise if a large number of people didn't behave rationally most of the time.
Yet, as Cipolla points out, this assumption underestimates just how many stupid people exist, and how ready large segments of the population are to think and do stupid things. Like in Germany in the 1930s. when millions of ordinary citizens supported the extremely aggressive and unjustified actions of the nazi party enabling enormous atrocities that brought no benefit to average german families the world was horrified to realize how regular teachers doctors musicians could enable such unrestrained racism and cruelty when caught up in nationalist frenzy instead of recognizing it as a moment of profound stupidity cipolla's second law of stupidity states The probability that a certain person is stupid is independent of any other characteristic of that person.
Here, Cipolla means that even wealthy, educated, skilled people can also be stupid. Cipolla considered stupidity as a human characteristic, like having blonde hair or black eyes. Cipolla posits stupidity is a variable that remains constant across all populations, every category one can imagine.
Gender, race, nationality, education level, income. possesses a percentage of stupid people. There are stupid college professors.
There are stupid people at Davos and at the UN General Assembly. There are stupid people in every nation on earth. Look at all the educated fans who become blind devotees of music or movie stars, for example, suspending good judgment no matter what their beloved celebrity says or does.
The star's talent and fame somehow paralyze the part of fans'brains that should foster critical thinking. Similarly, Many people automatically assume business leaders must make good choices just because they became wealthy. Yet history shows seeking profits need have nothing to do with wisdom in other domains.
Such leaders gain followings of people who leave their own judgment aside. Cipolla's third law of stupidity is A stupid person is a person who causes losses to another person, or to a group of persons, while himself deriving no gain and even possibly incurring losses. What Cipolla means here is that people or entities that behave stupidly inevitably cause harm, trouble, or negative outcomes for others around them, even when they gain nothing from their stupid actions themselves and may in fact make their own situation worse.
For example, destructive authoritarian governments through history that pursued brutal, corrupt policies at the expense of their own citizens. Such regimes cause tremendous financial losses and suffering for millions of people. while the ruling class hoarded power and wealth only for themselves. Most authoritarian leaders ultimately damaged their own nations as well, once popular discontent and economic decline reached tipping points. Their unjustified cruelty brought harm all around, despite promising prosperity if people trusted them as saviors.
Cipolla's Fourth Law of Stupidity Non-stupid people always underestimate the damaging power of stupid individuals. In particular, Non-stupid people constantly forget that at all times and places and under any circumstances to deal and or associate with stupid people always turns out to be a costly mistake. Here, Cipolla emphasizes how people behaving sensibly downplay or dismiss the influence and impact stupid people can have by making terrible decisions. Others then enable or follow. We expect societies to course correct against irrational beliefs gaining ground.
But as countless historical cases show. It takes very few people in power doing or enabling stupid things for far-reaching harm to be unleashed, costing lives, destroying wealth, and collapsing systems. And non-stupid people perpetuate the problems by giving stupidity the benefit of doubt rather than confronting the risks it poses when left unchecked. Dictators have triggered widespread wars and violence by whipping up the stupid tendencies in human nature that rational people thought would be restrained by others.
Cipolla's fifth law of stupidity is A stupid person is more dangerous than a pillager. In this law, Cipolla argues that individuals behaving stupidly pose far greater risks than those he categorized as bandits, meaning people acting out of self-interest at the expense of others. While bandits seek to maximize their own benefits regardless of harm, they generally don't seek to inflict damage for its own sake if there is no personal gain. On the other hand, stupid individuals can generate utterly pointless harm and destruction through their foolish choices and beliefs. even without benefiting themselves, and without regard for collateral damage.
Destructive social movements often arise and gain ground because enough stupid people buy into irrational ideologies that scapegoat or dehumanize vulnerable groups. Within such movements, say a government or violent mob, bandits certainly exploit others'stupidity for personal gain when given the chance. However, it takes a far greater number of true stupid followers to enable harm and suffering on vast scales over time. As Cipolla concludes, because stupid people inflict severe damage that is utterly unjustified and helps no one, while undermining their own self-interest, they pose exponentially higher risks than those merely acting out of selfishness.
Even bandits depend on moderating their greed to avoid total ruin. But stupidity has no such self-regulation. This makes unchecked stupidity the most dangerous societal threat. In short, Carlo Cipolla aimed to explain why acts of stupidity that harm others keep happening throughout history.
His five laws remind us that stupid thinking is more common than smart people like to admit. When waves of foolish beliefs grip societies, damage often spreads before rational folks realize what's happening. We see this again and again when crowds blindly follow leaders lacking wisdom or compassion. Nazi Germany stands out as one such horrific case among many. Yet Cipolla argues that since people who think sensibly will always outnumber those acting stupidly, we can limit the damage if we remain vigilant.
Staying alert to humanity's tendency towards foolish acts before they spiral is key. When enough sensible people speak reason early on, stupid beliefs gain less traction with the wider public over time. So, while Cipolla's laws are gloomy about levels of stupidity lurking among all populations, He says rational people have strength in numbers to reduce its harmful influence on society.
We must simply never underestimate or dismiss its abundance and appeal. In this way, accepting the persistence of stupid thinking makes containing it more possible. And that is the optimistic lesson in Cipolla's warning.
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