hey everybody welcome back to the channel we are back on another episode of the daily recap and we've got a bunch of things to discuss today you've got the first insider buy on Tesla since November 2020 did not expect to see that after hours but we got that piece of news so we'll be talking about that uh tariff updates scott Bent and Howard Lutnik will be talking tomorrow to the media bent in a press briefing letic did talk to CNBC this morning and he had some interesting things to say that I think got the market kind of excited so we'll be talking about that the implications of that and then finally we've got a massive week with earnings coming up i want to do a bit of an earnings preview in terms of what I'm expecting from some of the companies they're reporting sofi Robin Hood PayPal Grab Meta Amazon Microsoft Apple lot to talk about lot to get into we got some other headlines let's get into it before we get on with the daily recap real quick uh thank you to everyone who showed out to the Toronto meetup it was an incredible time just got back uh yesterday morning on Sunday and uh it was one of the most incredible experiences of my life every time we do these meetups I am humbled uh to see all the support that is a picture right there on the screen of everyone who showed up i think at one point we had 170 people that showed up to the meetup and uh yeah it just it really means a lot for people to show up take the time out of their busy lives and and come to uh show their appreciation and say hi and network with all the other people that were there though so thank you to everybody who showed up to the Toronto meetup houston Houston Texas is next likely end of May i'll be giving more details soon but if you're in that Houston Texas area uh Texas will be next so shout out to Toronto tot it's a bad monting you know what I mean i love T dot i love Toronto by the way the women are beautiful in that city it's absolutely incredible all right let's get on with the daily recap okay so let's start off with what Bent said today because uh as soon as I woke up I saw that he was live and he was saying a bunch of things that the media wanted to hear uh good things about trade deals and negotiations and all that stuff so let's get into what exactly did Scott Bent say first thing he said was "Hey we have a complicated relationship with China but I am confident that we will be able to get to a deal with China." Now Basant Lutnik Trump they've all been saying this for the past couple weeks now we've had the 145% tariffs then we're going back on 145% tariffs we'll talk more about China and implications around shipping and some of their price increases as well in a bit but uh he continued to try to get the market to believe that eventually China will have to come to the table and he really highlighted in the interview the propensity to consume for America aka the US consumer and how China needs that and there's no way that China's not going to come to the table so I don't know if they're talking yet trump said they're talking xi said they're not talking i mean I would assume at some level China and the United States are having discussions is it complex negotiations yet i don't think so and Bent is trying to get people to realize that hey it's going to happen but it's not happening yet he said about Europeans that the EU is panicked about the strength of the euro and that they will likely be cutting rates they've already cut rates seven times in a row to continuously make sure that the euro is not as strong as the dollar because that gives European countries different benefits in regards to and you know trade more meaningfully if if uh there's a better chance for the euro to be a little bit stronger than the dollar or for any country's currency to be stronger than the dollar uh that's why China engages in all this artificial manipulation of their yuan currency so uh interesting that he says that because his argument is actually hey we have a lot more leverage here because the dollar keeps selling off based on all the tariff and trade volatility we think that's not going to be good for the Europeans and they don't want the euro to be as strong as the dollar for the the the trade deficits that they have so more likely than not he thinks that Europe will not only be cutting rates but they'll be coming to the table and get a better chance at having a deal right now the EU we have no deal with them and that 90-day pause I think we got about a month and a half of that left until that uh that that pause goes away which we could pause again indefinitely but the point is like we need a deal with EU and China right now we don't have it the Sen says we're likely to get it and then he said uh many of the 17 important trading partners have made very good proposals to avert US tariffs this is Vietnam Thailand etc and then he says all aspects of governments are in contact with China it's up to China to deescalate on tariffs finally what he said is that India might be one of the first trade deals we sign and the first trade deal might come as early as this week or next week that got the markets really excited we started to see uh at basically 9:30 to 9:40 Eastern when the market opened a nice gap up tesla was almost at 300 palenteer was up nvidia it was more up than it was before nvidia was red on the day and then it went really red and then it recovered a little bit but at least Nvidia wasn't as red when the markets open s&p was up almost half a percent so you saw the markets really kind of rally off the headline like they have been doing for the past couple weeks now which is hey if the only thing stopping this bull market is getting some deals done then we need to get some deals done and India being confirmation by BENT as like one of the most likely trade partners announced this week or the next week to me is bullish and hopefully that's going to be something that we get pretty soon now one thing that I think is oddly peculiar is Lutnik who you guys keep spamming Nutlick in the chat so it's really hard for me to say Lutnick because every time I think of saying Nutlick but Lutnik is uh going on CBC tomorrow at 2 PM he has not been on TV in two weeks so the fact that he's coming back on TV to me is kind of bullish because besides speaking at 8:30 uh and doing an official press briefing I think the reason they want Lutnik out there and they've kind of artificially kept him away from the media for reasons that probably are accurate in terms of him not being able to effectively communicate um but if Bent's going to set up something in the morning Lutnik's probably going to double down on what Bent says in the afternoon which means the question is what is Bent going to say and if Lutnik is not there at 2 p.m on CNBC to just like talk whatever he usually talks about if he's actually there to double down on what Bent is saying I think that means Bent might be saying something good at 8:30 this is the nature of analyzing the markets bro we're trying to figure out every little detail about like what is going to be said where it's going to be said how it's going to be said who's going to be saying it i would hope tomorrow that Bens says something good and let Nicknick just double down doubles down on it uh later throughout the day he'll be live at 8:30 i'll be live at probably like 6:45 tomorrow 6:50 because we got SoFi earnings and their results come out at 7 so it'll be an early day for me but we're going to be streaming a lot throughout the day to get through all the earnings but yes the scent lutnic talking tomorrow looks like we got some trade deal progression starting to be more uh exciting to the market in terms of actually solidifying deals my takeaway is very simple they can talk about deals all they want until we get some real deals the market's going to be on tilt so we got to get the deals and hopefully they're announced soon okay next big update on the day is Tessy now this I did not expect after hours the first buy since uh November 2020 on Tessy take a look at that dude uh Joseph Gbia he joined the board of directors in 2022 he bought 4,000 shares a week ago at $256.31 so about a million dollar purchase and it is the first insider buy since 2020 i think a lot of people were caught off guard by this because uh Tesla insiders usually tend to sell not buy number two Tesla earnings were really bad and as bullish as I am on the future of Tesla um yeah these earnings were not good and uh I the reason it pumped 10% on Friday was because of a autonomous vehicle regulation that went down or was look it looked likely that it was being taken away which is going to clear the path for Tesla to start rolling out autonomous vehicles but still dude even after the robo taxi launch in June we are a long ways away from robo taxis getting to for example 250,000 sh paid rides a week like Whimo is doing from Alphabet alphabet got zero respect for their earnings the stock was down today and was barely up on Friday when Tesla was up 10% tesla ran up 10% just based on the headline now that's not anything new tesla runs on headlines and narratives uh Google you know is not being seen as an AI play I guess by the market even though Costco's entire net income is accomplished by Google in 20 days of the year so what Costco does in 365 days Google does in 20 days in net income steve and I talked about that yesterday on our podcast i'll link in the description when we we went deeper on um Google's earnings but I mean it's pretty damn incredible so the fact that the insider actually chose to buy I think is is kind of bullish right like if he's buying at 256 he obviously thinks there's going to be upside people sell for a ton of reasons but if you're buying you are buying for one reason that stock should be higher than when you bought it at and uh you know right now it's at like 280 250 that $30 difference is whatever i'm I'm assuming he's buying it because he thinks it's going to be worth a lot more than 280 one day uh and he probably didn't want to wait for it to go all the way down to 150 or something that people were calling for now what's interesting about this is as good of a um update is that it is on on the fact that we finally got an insider to buy in over five years joseph Gbia is worth $8 billion he was the co-founder of Airbnb so the dude's worth a ton of money a million dollars for someone who's worth eight billion i mean you know it's not really like it's not like he's betting the farm on Tesla the point is he's not being super bullish in terms of the amount he's buying which is a way to nitpick against why it doesn't matter too much but at the end of the day my take is that this is bullish i don't know what that I don't know what happens with Tesla stock if it goes up or down from here but I do think the first insider buy since 2020 is probably a good thing now another thing about Tesla is the Model 3 in the United States is now giving you a 0% APR tesla's offering that 0% APR with a 10% discount that to me reeks of desperation the fact that they're giving you a 10% discount just to buy a Model 3 and then they're taking uh away the APR from it so they're giving you a 0% APR i got my Model Y with 0% APR back in November means that their margins continue to suck and the argument around brand damage continues to grow in terms of people that need to be incentivized to buy Teslas i was speaking to a bunch of people in Toronto over the weekend about Tesla and uh one guy told me that he had three Teslas on order uh and then he saw a tweet by Elon saying Canada is not a real country and he canceled it canadians have pride and so when Trump talks about this whole 51st state stuff it's like now that I got to talk to some Canadians in person some of them like it and they joke around with it and they think it's funny but the majority of them are like "Dude what are you saying like what are you doing you're not going to invade Canada you're not going to take away our sovereignty." And so uh I got to experience what brand damage felt like firsthand over the weekend another thing I got to experience is that one of the friends who I was staying with owns a Cybertruck we were the only Cybertruck in Toronto and we drove a lot i mean I'm sure there's more Cyber Trucks in Toronto but I didn't see any of them it felt like we were the only one everyone was staring at us we got a bunch of middle fingers one guy even acted as if he was spitting at us uh because of the you know the resentment they had against the car in New Jersey I see like five Cybert trucks every other day right so like I I didn't really see a ton of Cybert trucks in Toronto and I could tell there was a bit of more negative resentment against the car does that mean the brand is completely ruined obviously not but it does mean these are things we have to think about in the context of Tesla and I think uh when it comes to the overarching story about brand image there is an argument fsd and Robotics to me outweighs that argument and the stock is acting like FSD Robotics meaningfully outweigh that argument and Joseph Gibbia buying 4,000 shares also probably thinks that the stock is worth a lot more than what the brand damage might imply that it should be worth next quick update is Micro Strategy uh Sailor bought some more Bitcoin he bought 15,500 15,355 Bitcoin for approximately 1.42 billion 92,737 a coin uh and the company now is a 13.7% year-toate yield on their Bitcoin their Bitcoin yield is kind of the core metric that they focus on um 68,000.4 is their average and they bought about 37.9 billion worth of Bitcoin why am I bringing this up well Bitcoin held up pretty nicely today i mean BTC got to almost 9 actually no it did get to No almost 95,910 almost got to 96 i mean right now it's at 94 and 92 it's It's really been holding up nicely i don't think anyone can deny the fact that Bitcoin has just been incredible in terms of its momentum etf inflows were also pretty amazing we've talked a lot about ETF inflows and how they've kind of died down over the past couple of weeks well last Friday actually let's do last week monday you had 387 million of inflows tuesday you had 936 million wednesday you had $97 million those are two backto-back almost billion dollar days of ETF inflows uh Thursday you had $442 million and then Friday you had $380 million of inflows from the Bitcoin ETFs going into the asset looks like people are starting to be bullish on Bitcoin okay next update right here is on auto tariff so we got this breaking news after hours not confirmed but it is uh from the Wall Street Journal and the reason I think the argument here is probably likely to happen is because Trump is going to be speaking in Michigan on Wednesday to commemorate his 100 days of being in office uh Michigan is a state that voted for Trump and it is the largest auto manufacturing state in the country here's what the Wall Street Journal had to say trump is expected to lower auto tariffs so they don't pile up with tariffs on products like steam or steel or aluminum uh aluminum which are already tariffed used to make cars if companies paid a 25% tariff from other countries this month on cars they can get some of that money back and for car parts from other countries there's a 25% tariff starting May 3rd if a company makes cars in the US they can get that money back like 3.75% of that car is priced in the first year then 2.75% the next year and after that no more refunds essentially the Wall Street Journal is saying "Hey he's going to unveil a bunch of different updates on auto tariffs." Again not confirmed yet but he is planning to unveil them in Michigan uh and if he does he's going to be walking back some of the aggressive tone that the administration has had on auto tariffs which still are 25% on Canada and Mexico that has not died down the Financial Times reported that he would be uh dialing that back so far that's not been the case and as a result GM4 Tesla etc have all been affected by those tariffs what's my take on this my take on this is very similar to what I've been saying for the past couple weeks in the context of tariffs and negotiations i think this administration is not actually serious about imposing tariffs across the world and I know as I say that it's a little weird because um Trump said over the weekend that he wants to eliminate taxes for people that make $200,000 or less and the only way to do that is to get the money from somewhere else aka the external revenue service versus the internal revenue service so theoretically he has to get the money from a different place if he's not getting the money from people who make less than $200,000 which means they should be pretty serious about tariffs right because like you got to get the money from somewhere but I continue to believe that we've seen Trump fold a variety of times in regards to tariffs i think the 10% universal tariff that's hit across the board for all these countries is going to come down to like 5% or maybe 0% i think there's a world to get the India deal the South Korea deal the Japan deal the Thailand deal the Vietnam deal over the finish line they are going to try to get really good concessions which they should try to get and take those 10% tariffs down to zero which would be great for the economy in terms of the earnings expectations because tariffs are a way to decrease demand not the best for inflation but then again inflation's already coming down and so that could be the way that Trump kind of saves all these deals stock market would love it because the the tariff volatility would pretty much die down if we don't have a trade war with every single country on the planet and the market I think would be pretty happy about that so I think even if this is just a reported reduction in auto tariffs and we have to wait for the actual updates the trend with Trump with these whole tariffs as we've been seeing the saga play out is go aggressive and then walk back i think if they needed to go aggressive to get the negotiating leverage hopefully that leverage meaningfully results in different trade deals but I really do think they're going to be walked back i don't think four years from now we have 10% universal tariffs across every country in the world which brings our average tariff rate up to like 23% i think it's going to go down because we need to get deals done and that's one of the easiest ways to get something over the finish line just say "Okay I'll take the tariffs to zero." By the way Japanese uh prime minister today uh on the trade deals literally said we want our number one priority for the US trade deal or for the new negotiated trade deal to be for US tariffs to go to zero so when Japan says stuff like that I would imagine bes like all right we kind of don't need to get these tariffs from Japan but they can do a lot more from us and if all they want is to take the tariff rate to zero for us to get these deals let's do it it's just a question of if Trump is going to deploy that strategy and uh meaningfully architect deals that don't have massive tariffs we'll find out but another auto update i think we're going to get a lot more updates in the context of tariffs going away for more countries hopefully soon all right let's talk about Nvidia so Nvidia took a little bit of a beating today worse than the rest of the market recovered a little bit towards the end of the day but still got beat was down about 2% at one point it was down almost 4% on the day what happened with Nvidia after that massive day we had on Friday so first of all on Friday I think it pumped because the macro pumped i don't think it was like an Nvidia specific pump so I mean it was nice to see uh that momentum but I don't think it was really related to Nvidia by the way I finished my Nvidia position um uh 1,000 shares 60 shares i bought at 107 last week so I think it was like 10780 so uh ran 1,000 shares at 119 i have no problem with buying more but that kind of core position that I wanted is now set in stone the reason it was down today is because of a headline around China so it's the same thing we talked about last week uh essentially Huawei which is a massive Chinese tech company is starting to make a little bit more progress in the context of what they're doing when it comes to chips and so one of the reasons why Nvidia was down is because now Huawei is getting ready to test its new powerful AI chip which is the Ascend 910D aiming to rival Nvidia's products per Wall Street Journal still early days but it's another sign the chips industry is pushing ahead despite US export restrictions i don't think this is anything we have to be scared about as Nvidia shareholders particularly because of the fact that um they're nowhere near Blackwell they're nowhere near Reuben they're nowhere near the next generation models that Nvidia is going to be coming up with so the idea that Huawei will overtake Nvidia's capacity to build the the most important technology in the world to me is is likely not going to happen now one thing that is important right here though is that the export controls means that Nvidia can't sell their ships into China uh and as a result you know that means Nvidia is not going to get that money they're not going to get those profits so I think the AI revolution has to be big enough and capex demand and spend has to be big enough in order to architect the ability for Nvidia to make up that demand from other places which as a shareholder of Nvidia I believe is true and in fact it's not just me google CEO CEO Eric Schmidt today said this when he was testifi testifying before Congress he said "I honestly believe the AI revolution is underhyped these algorithms will require more computation and energy than we've ever needed before." You know when someone like Eric Schmid former CEO of Google says something like this a it means that Google's reaffirming their capex spend of $75 billion last week made sense meta is probably going to do the same along with Microsoft and Amazon later this week um but if these companies are going to keep spending on capex Nvidia is going to keep having demand they're definitely going to have the hyperscalers continue to want the latest and greatest chips if Nvidia is down 2% because of a China headline about Huawei catching up I don't think Huawei is anywhere near the most advanced generation chips from Nvidia granted they're being forced to innovate now because of the export controls which is not really good for Nvidia not really good for the overall national security debate around AI but it is good for Huawei the question is do you believe Nvidia is just going to be better than them over the long term i think the answer is yes and if the answer to that is yes then I think Nvidia ultimately will do well i think it's a dip that people will continue to buy and the fact that Mag 7 at least with Google have had such amazing earnings so far we're going to get the rest of the earnings later this week if Nvidia can just follow that up with a good earnings I think the stock gets closer back to that 120 125 range especially if the market sentiment shifts and we get more trade deals so that was the reason why Nvidia was down but I don't think that's the reason Nvidia is going to stay down going into the next couple months okay last thing we're going to talk about is um earnings expectations going into this week we have a big big earnings week coming up it should be a very very fun week we have a lot of companies that are going to be reporting on their earnings and just to give you guys a look of how intense this earnings is going to be today you had Domino's and Waste Management which did okay i mean Waste Management missed Domino's beat but those stocks relatively flat but Tuesday which is tomorrow we got SoFi PayPal in the morning Spotify in the morning Coca-Cola Fizer then after the close we got Visa Snapchat Starbucks by the way I have a swing trade on Snapchat 1,000 shares at 870 um I I think it can run up to 11 or 12 so I have a swing trade on that uh Wednesday we got Microsoft Meta Robin that's a big one apple Amazon on Thursday Roblox Lily McDonald's it's going to be a big week it's going to be a big big week my overall without going into the nitty-gritty of every single stock i I talked a little bit about that on the Sunday future show yesterday again I'll link that in the description but I think these companies are going to do really well i think Robin's going to crush it i think SoFi is going to crush it i think Meta and Amazon are going to crush it do they have to deal with tariffs and volatility and ad budgets potentially coming down yes but this is Q1 earnings q1 wasn't really affected by tariffs i think Q1 is going to be amazing uh the question is going to be what does guidance look like and if they're going to reaffirm the types of guidance they gave before are they going to give a new type of guidance google never gives guidance but Tesla kind of refused to give Q2 guidance this time and that is what I'm scared about so so far 78% of the companies that have reported uh have beat and there was about a quarter of companies reporting this week is going to really solidify if we're having a quarter where companies are beating and then we're just going to have to be patient and wait until Q2 but what we've seen so far to me is very very encouraging i think we're going to keep getting more momentum will these stocks rise or fall on these earnings one is going to have to find out right i think Robin Hood can get back up to that 55 57 58 level i don't know if it gets to 65 again alltime highs but it's already made a nice run from 30 to 50 over the past couple weeks so I can't be that angry as a shareholder if it drops back down to 4547 sofi went from 7 to 13 i think getting or from 9 to 13 getting back to nine bucks I thought was ridiculous do I think SoFi should get back to 20 or get closer to 18 20 yes but it's up to Notto in his communication paypal said this was going to be a transition year for them versus a growth year can they reinstill their guidance to say that trading volumes or not trading volumes transaction u uh processing volumes in terms of payments volumes are going to be higher hopefully but these are the metrics I think we got to look at meta's got to do capex meta's got to say AI is real microsoft's got to say "Hey we're going to keep spending on capex." By the way real quick on Microsoft everyone's saying that Microsoft's not spending on capex anymore that's not really true microsoft's just shifting their spend on capex you can see right here that although Microsoft is freezing some of their data center spend about 1.5 gawatts of it they already have 5 gawatts under binding contracts until 2028 which is enough for 2.5 million GPUs again arguments that prove the AI revolution should be intact even if there is uh a bit of a change in terms of how the market is thinking about the overarching landscape for the capex trade so I think earnings is going to be okay i don't think it'll be bad but this week we're going to get a really good understanding of how companies are reporting all right that's it for me thank everybody for listening and watching appreciate everyone joining the channel and being part of the show uh we'll be back to the market open tomorrow it's going to be a big open with a lot of different earnings so for those that care about a lot of those companies SoFi Spotify PayPal etc sofi being the biggest then we will be starting with that thank everybody for listening and watching i'll see you guys in the next