Innovative Insights from Big Ideas 2025

Hello, everyone. My name is Kathy Wood. I am CEO and CIO of ARK Invest, and I would like to share with you our big ideas 2025, at least my takeaways from them. Our analysts have done an amazing job. I think this is our best one yet. So I'd highly recommend that you download it from ark-invest.com and take a look at all 140 pages. The analysts, our analysts themselves, will be sharing their takeaways in the next week or so. So I thought I'd summarize some of the highlights first. AI, AI all the time. AI has been the big story for the past two years, and it's still the big story. In fact, it is the biggest catalyst to all of the innovation taking place out there. It is the reason. that the world seems to be speeding up. And I'll just give you a few examples of how quickly things are happening. So on the autonomous front, we have autonomous coders in the software development space. And in late 23, this autonomous coder, and you'll see it in Big Ideas, was able to do 3% of a project that a developer gave the AI system. By the end of last year, that was up to roughly 75%. And soon, we think it will be very close to 100%. So basically, a developer or an engineer telling a coder, this is what I want to do, and the AI basically writes the code. for the engineer, increasing the engineer's productivity many fold per year. Another example is in the multi-omic space, so drug development. In the area of research, researchers often test hypotheses for new drug targets, and we've scored how long it takes them. At the end of 23, or in the year 23, they were able to test 20 hypotheses in one year. By the end of 24, 200 hypotheses, 10 times more productive. So that tells us that the cost of research and discovery as we're moving towards curing disease is collapsing. So we're going to get a lot more of that. kind of research and development. And then a third really good example of autonomous is full self-driving. Now, 10 years ago, or maybe 11 years ago, when we were writing about autonomous and when we thought it would roll out, there were about 10 companies, mostly auto companies, who said they were going to be there within the next five to six years. And we thought they were, but the only one who made it, at least from a commercialization point of view, was Waymo in 2018. Well, here we are in 2025, and Waymo is still geofenced by territory. We believe this year Tesla will deliver a fully autonomous service. They're saying in June in Austin we'll see the debut. And we think that it will roll out across the country pretty quickly thereafter. So we're pretty excited about that. Interestingly, of the 10 companies who expected to be a part of this new world, only those two have made it, at least in the United States. And of course, in China, we've got Baidu, Apollo. So let's take you to another. AI-inspired movement, and that's robotics generally. We believe that humanoid robots will soon be upon us. We will not be surprised to see them walking around our businesses and maybe walking around our homes after that, trying to take all the drudgery out of day-to-day work. We think this is going to be a... $26 trillion business, ultimately half in the home. and half in manufacturing. And the developments here are, once again, because of artificial intelligence. In fact, just like autonomous robo-taxis, we've got a convergence of three technologies that are driving both humanoid robots and robo-taxis forward. Robots. themselves, energy storage, so battery technology, and artificial intelligence. Those three technologies converging are creating all kinds of opportunities. And humanoid robots, I think, I will tell you, while full self-driving took a lot longer than we expected, humanoid robots... are developing faster than we expected because of the expertise that has evolved around full self-driving. It's the three same technologies converging. So we're pretty excited about that. And, you know, humanoid robots, we have a sense of how much productivity they will introduce. We have a sense because we actually have old-fashioned robots in our homes already. So washing machines. Before washing machines, believe it or not, people spent a lot of time washing clothes. And with the washing machine, the time savings are now something like 85 or 90 percent. We think the same will be true for many other household chores. Importantly, food preparation and cleanup in the home. That's going to be pretty exciting. And on the manufacturing front, we've already seen robotics in action. The assembly line, 100 years ago, saved 85% plus of the time to manufacture one car. So we're familiar, it's just all of this now is speeding up thanks to the convergence of robotics, energy storage, and artificial intelligence. Another part of our big ideas that I really love is about reusable rockets. You know, SpaceX is 10 years ahead of any other robotics company, and they are turning around the use of the robots in just weeks now, as opposed to when they first started a few years ago. It took a year to turn that reusable robot. around. Now it takes two weeks, and soon we think it will take two days. And we'll need that kind of turnaround because of all the satellites that are going up. And we think we'll deliver $132 billion in revenue potential as the world becomes better. so much more interconnected than it is now. And then we'll jog over to another part of the big ideas that I know many people enjoy, and that is about cryptoassets or digital assets. And you'll see how we get to our base case for the Bitcoin price and our bull case. Many people know us for our bull case, $1.5 million, and we actually think the odds have gone up that our bull case will be the right number because of what is becoming the institutionalization of this new asset class. So many institutional investors are now looking at Bitcoin and thinking that they need to add. it to their asset allocation because its return profile looks so much different and its risk profile looks so much different from all of the other assets in their portfolios. And then in another section of Big Ideas, you'll see stablecoins. And I do think it is quite a surprise to learn that stablecoins in total The transaction value of all of them is roughly, or was last year, $15 trillion. That was more than either Visa or MasterCard. And by the end of the year, the run rate... was nearly double that, $30 trillion. Now, when we say that, I want to make sure you understand that this is transaction value. There are very large transactions taking place with stable coins. Transaction volume, or the number of transactions, Visa and MasterCard still have many more transactions. But the value that is ramping through The digital asset ecosystem as decentralized finance takes off, or another way of saying it, the internet financial system takes off, that is scaling tremendously in a way that I don't think people really understand. So we wanted to highlight the difference between that and the stable coins in the context of Visa and MasterCard. One other thing I'd like to mention before I wind up here is the amount of time that we have spent on multiomics. So multiomics is the study not just of DNA or genomics, but RNA, proteins, epigenetics. It's complicated. But the reason we're spending so much time on it And the reason we have been able to withstand the buffeting that the multi-omic space has taken in the financial markets is because of the massive opportunity that we see brewing. We believe not only will research and development evolve much more quickly, but the number of failures in new trials for drugs. is going to drop precipitously and we truly believe that the convergence among sequencing technologies, artificial intelligence, and CRISPR gene editing is going to continue curing diseases. It's already curing sickle cell disease and beta thalassemia. Those revenues have already started. And we can see so many other diseases cured with this convergence of three technologies. In fact, CRISPR therapeutics is focused on type 1 diabetes and type 2 diabetes, which would be the category killer for this particular cure. Now, what is a cure worth? It's so interesting. that in the traditional financial markets, many analysts think cures are bad business, one and done. They don't get the annuity associated with a chronic disease once it's cured. Well, we would like to tell you that a cure, in our view, and we show it in Big Ideas, should be worth anywhere from two to 20 times more than traditional. additional medicine. And we believe for that reason, the returns on R&D to the pharma and biotech sector as they embrace these new technologies is going to move up from the low single digits, it's been in a very bad place for about a decade, to anywhere from 15 to 45%, depending on how much companies embrace these new technologies. So that's pretty exciting. And I'll wind up now by talking about what all of these convergences are going to do to economic activity and to the stock market as a whole. We believe that real GDP growth globally is going to accelerate from 3%, where it has been for the past 125 years, to 7% to 8%, if not more, thanks to the convergence among these technologies, robotics, energy storage, artificial intelligence, blockchain technology, and multi-omic sequencing. Now, why are we so confident about that? That sounds like an outrageous number. The consensus forecast is 3%. Well, the reason is, if you look back in history, you will see that about 125 years ago, three innovation platforms were evolving at the same time. Telephone, electricity, and internal combustion engine. And what did that do to real GDP growth globally? It increased. The rate of real GDP growth by five-fold. We went from 0.6%, where the world had been over the 400 years, from 1500 to 1900, we went from 0.6% to 3%. That was a five-fold increase. And now we're telling you, even though there are five innovation platforms evolving, With AI at the heart and soul of the acceleration in these technology platforms, that we're only going to see a two to two and a half fold increase, we think that could be very conservative. And one of the reasons this is going to happen is because of productivity. Productivity is going to grow dramatically, and productivity is associated with low inflation growth as well. You can have higher wage growth if productivity is rising. So it's a win-win for everyone. And what a win-win means is wealth creation. And what does that mean for the stock market? Well, if we're right, then the value associated with truly disruptive innovation during the next five years in the equity markets, we believe, is going to rise from $12 trillion to $140 trillion, more than tenfold. Now, you might wonder what is going to happen to the MAG-6 during that period of time. Well, the MAG-6 will probably do fine altogether, although some will be disrupted by this new world order. That said, we expect the MAG-6 to go from $16 trillion today to $60 trillion. So that's about a fourfold increase, maybe a little less than that. This is another way of saying that we expect the equity market, the bull market, to broaden out during the next five years and benefit a lot of companies that have been toiling away while the MagSix were getting all the glory. And soon we think they are going to be. deliver the goods as well. And the goods means equity market appreciation. So we know that innovation solves problems, and we know that innovation is key to growth. That's why I founded ARC more than 10 years ago, and truly disruptive innovation is here now. So remember, download Big Ideas 2025. from arc-invest.com and enjoy 140 pages of research, original research, that has been done so masterfully by our analysts and our chief futurists and our directors. They deserve all the credit. I am just here to tell the story.

Hello, everyone. My name is Kathy Wood. I am CEO and CIO of ARK Invest, and I would like to share with you our big ideas 2025, at least my takeaways from them.

Our analysts have done an amazing job. I think this is our best one yet. So I'd highly recommend that you download it from ark-invest.com and take a look at all 140 pages. The analysts, our analysts themselves, will be sharing their takeaways in the next week or so. So I thought I'd summarize some of the highlights first.

AI, AI all the time. AI has been the big story for the past two years, and it's still the big story. In fact, it is the biggest catalyst to all of the innovation taking place out there.

It is the reason. that the world seems to be speeding up. And I'll just give you a few examples of how quickly things are happening.

So on the autonomous front, we have autonomous coders in the software development space. And in late 23, this autonomous coder, and you'll see it in Big Ideas, was able to do 3% of a project that a developer gave the AI system. By the end of last year, that was up to roughly 75%.

And soon, we think it will be very close to 100%. So basically, a developer or an engineer telling a coder, this is what I want to do, and the AI basically writes the code. for the engineer, increasing the engineer's productivity many fold per year.

Another example is in the multi-omic space, so drug development. In the area of research, researchers often test hypotheses for new drug targets, and we've scored how long it takes them. At the end of 23, or in the year 23, they were able to test 20 hypotheses in one year.

By the end of 24, 200 hypotheses, 10 times more productive. So that tells us that the cost of research and discovery as we're moving towards curing disease is collapsing. So we're going to get a lot more of that.

kind of research and development. And then a third really good example of autonomous is full self-driving. Now, 10 years ago, or maybe 11 years ago, when we were writing about autonomous and when we thought it would roll out, there were about 10 companies, mostly auto companies, who said they were going to be there within the next five to six years.

And we thought they were, but the only one who made it, at least from a commercialization point of view, was Waymo in 2018. Well, here we are in 2025, and Waymo is still geofenced by territory. We believe this year Tesla will deliver a fully autonomous service. They're saying in June in Austin we'll see the debut.

And we think that it will roll out across the country pretty quickly thereafter. So we're pretty excited about that. Interestingly, of the 10 companies who expected to be a part of this new world, only those two have made it, at least in the United States. And of course, in China, we've got Baidu, Apollo. So let's take you to another.

AI-inspired movement, and that's robotics generally. We believe that humanoid robots will soon be upon us. We will not be surprised to see them walking around our businesses and maybe walking around our homes after that, trying to take all the drudgery out of day-to-day work. We think this is going to be a... $26 trillion business, ultimately half in the home.

and half in manufacturing. And the developments here are, once again, because of artificial intelligence. In fact, just like autonomous robo-taxis, we've got a convergence of three technologies that are driving both humanoid robots and robo-taxis forward. Robots. themselves, energy storage, so battery technology, and artificial intelligence.

Those three technologies converging are creating all kinds of opportunities. And humanoid robots, I think, I will tell you, while full self-driving took a lot longer than we expected, humanoid robots... are developing faster than we expected because of the expertise that has evolved around full self-driving. It's the three same technologies converging. So we're pretty excited about that.

And, you know, humanoid robots, we have a sense of how much productivity they will introduce. We have a sense because we actually have old-fashioned robots in our homes already. So washing machines. Before washing machines, believe it or not, people spent a lot of time washing clothes. And with the washing machine, the time savings are now something like 85 or 90 percent.

We think the same will be true for many other household chores. Importantly, food preparation and cleanup in the home. That's going to be pretty exciting.

And on the manufacturing front, we've already seen robotics in action. The assembly line, 100 years ago, saved 85% plus of the time to manufacture one car. So we're familiar, it's just all of this now is speeding up thanks to the convergence of robotics, energy storage, and artificial intelligence.

Another part of our big ideas that I really love is about reusable rockets. You know, SpaceX is 10 years ahead of any other robotics company, and they are turning around the use of the robots in just weeks now, as opposed to when they first started a few years ago. It took a year to turn that reusable robot.

around. Now it takes two weeks, and soon we think it will take two days. And we'll need that kind of turnaround because of all the satellites that are going up.

And we think we'll deliver $132 billion in revenue potential as the world becomes better. so much more interconnected than it is now. And then we'll jog over to another part of the big ideas that I know many people enjoy, and that is about cryptoassets or digital assets. And you'll see how we get to our base case for the Bitcoin price and our bull case. Many people know us for our bull case, $1.5 million, and we actually think the odds have gone up that our bull case will be the right number because of what is becoming the institutionalization of this new asset class.

So many institutional investors are now looking at Bitcoin and thinking that they need to add. it to their asset allocation because its return profile looks so much different and its risk profile looks so much different from all of the other assets in their portfolios. And then in another section of Big Ideas, you'll see stablecoins.

And I do think it is quite a surprise to learn that stablecoins in total The transaction value of all of them is roughly, or was last year, $15 trillion. That was more than either Visa or MasterCard. And by the end of the year, the run rate...

was nearly double that, $30 trillion. Now, when we say that, I want to make sure you understand that this is transaction value. There are very large transactions taking place with stable coins. Transaction volume, or the number of transactions, Visa and MasterCard still have many more transactions. But the value that is ramping through The digital asset ecosystem as decentralized finance takes off, or another way of saying it, the internet financial system takes off, that is scaling tremendously in a way that I don't think people really understand.

So we wanted to highlight the difference between that and the stable coins in the context of Visa and MasterCard. One other thing I'd like to mention before I wind up here is the amount of time that we have spent on multiomics. So multiomics is the study not just of DNA or genomics, but RNA, proteins, epigenetics.

It's complicated. But the reason we're spending so much time on it And the reason we have been able to withstand the buffeting that the multi-omic space has taken in the financial markets is because of the massive opportunity that we see brewing. We believe not only will research and development evolve much more quickly, but the number of failures in new trials for drugs.

is going to drop precipitously and we truly believe that the convergence among sequencing technologies, artificial intelligence, and CRISPR gene editing is going to continue curing diseases. It's already curing sickle cell disease and beta thalassemia. Those revenues have already started. And we can see so many other diseases cured with this convergence of three technologies.

In fact, CRISPR therapeutics is focused on type 1 diabetes and type 2 diabetes, which would be the category killer for this particular cure. Now, what is a cure worth? It's so interesting. that in the traditional financial markets, many analysts think cures are bad business, one and done. They don't get the annuity associated with a chronic disease once it's cured.

Well, we would like to tell you that a cure, in our view, and we show it in Big Ideas, should be worth anywhere from two to 20 times more than traditional. additional medicine. And we believe for that reason, the returns on R&D to the pharma and biotech sector as they embrace these new technologies is going to move up from the low single digits, it's been in a very bad place for about a decade, to anywhere from 15 to 45%, depending on how much companies embrace these new technologies. So that's pretty exciting.

And I'll wind up now by talking about what all of these convergences are going to do to economic activity and to the stock market as a whole. We believe that real GDP growth globally is going to accelerate from 3%, where it has been for the past 125 years, to 7% to 8%, if not more, thanks to the convergence among these technologies, robotics, energy storage, artificial intelligence, blockchain technology, and multi-omic sequencing. Now, why are we so confident about that?

That sounds like an outrageous number. The consensus forecast is 3%. Well, the reason is, if you look back in history, you will see that about 125 years ago, three innovation platforms were evolving at the same time. Telephone, electricity, and internal combustion engine. And what did that do to real GDP growth globally?

It increased. The rate of real GDP growth by five-fold. We went from 0.6%, where the world had been over the 400 years, from 1500 to 1900, we went from 0.6% to 3%.

That was a five-fold increase. And now we're telling you, even though there are five innovation platforms evolving, With AI at the heart and soul of the acceleration in these technology platforms, that we're only going to see a two to two and a half fold increase, we think that could be very conservative. And one of the reasons this is going to happen is because of productivity. Productivity is going to grow dramatically, and productivity is associated with low inflation growth as well. You can have higher wage growth if productivity is rising.

So it's a win-win for everyone. And what a win-win means is wealth creation. And what does that mean for the stock market? Well, if we're right, then the value associated with truly disruptive innovation during the next five years in the equity markets, we believe, is going to rise from $12 trillion to $140 trillion, more than tenfold.

Now, you might wonder what is going to happen to the MAG-6 during that period of time. Well, the MAG-6 will probably do fine altogether, although some will be disrupted by this new world order. That said, we expect the MAG-6 to go from $16 trillion today to $60 trillion.

So that's about a fourfold increase, maybe a little less than that. This is another way of saying that we expect the equity market, the bull market, to broaden out during the next five years and benefit a lot of companies that have been toiling away while the MagSix were getting all the glory. And soon we think they are going to be. deliver the goods as well.

And the goods means equity market appreciation. So we know that innovation solves problems, and we know that innovation is key to growth. That's why I founded ARC more than 10 years ago, and truly disruptive innovation is here now.

So remember, download Big Ideas 2025. from arc-invest.com and enjoy 140 pages of research, original research, that has been done so masterfully by our analysts and our chief futurists and our directors. They deserve all the credit. I am just here to tell the story.

Transcript for:Innovative Insights from Big Ideas 2025

Transcript for:
Innovative Insights from Big Ideas 2025