so with that said let me uh introduce Ivy zelman and bring Ivy up from backstage Mar land if you can promote Ivy up into uh the data Ivy has been both a u a guide to me a great consult to me and a friend of mine for 20 plus years in this business for those of you who don't know Ivy um she runs a zelman Associates which is a walker and Dunlop company over 30 years of experience on Wall Street one of the most followed analyst by hedge funds private Equity groups large home builders anybody that's in the real estate space uh Ivy has made an unbelievable career and is uh you know I I I have CNBC on behind me all day long when I'm in my office working and more often than not I see Ivy's smiling face being interviewed where people are looking to try to understand what's happening in housing so Ivy welcome on board to the weekly road map I can't thank you enough for being here and U I'm going to take the deck down for a moment here so that uh we can uh people can see you a little better uh there we go and um welcome thank you for joining us thanks for having me we're excited to have you and so without further Ado I guess I'd like to get a little bit into your perspective by the way I love your print uh behind you of Wall Street that's a that's a great print people can't see it but up above me I have a LeRoy Neeman of the New York Stock Exchange and so I love those kinds of prints so if that everybody becomes missing out of your house I didn't so I just want to go on record on that basis so you I love it too yeah so let me just uh let me just start by opening look is one of the most relevant analysts and uh thinkers about what's going on in the housing market you know we've had we've had a lot going on over the last four years right we had in the mortgage space we had two of the biggest record years ever in 20 and 21 followed immediately by three of the most difficult years in my 42 years in the mortgage business right continues to be very constrained we've seen over a 100,000 Originators individual Originators leave the industry as we look at licensing and the nmls system um I'm sure our audience would love to kind of get your perspective in general of what you expect in the Housing Industry in 2025 and any other insights that you would like to share uh with our audience great well thanks again Brian for having me and uh appreciate the opportunity to chat about our outlook for 25 you know there's a lot of moving Parts um but I would say prior to the backup in rates that we saw and the expectation that rates were prior to Trump getting elected rates were you know headed lower there was more optimism that we'd have a nice Rebound in existing home sales in 2025 we had been looking for up 11% albeit that's still well below trend line when you look at absolutes or historical turnover as a percent of households but still would that have been on a unit basis up 11% yeah a unit basis but we were also expecting at that point a benefit from as you mentioned in your opening comments that inventories were you know increasing which we need inventory so um in on a national basis inventories were up 20 25% and Ne just came out on uh yesterday and said inventories are now up 18% so may have seen a peak in inventories Rising as uh sellers are uh rethinking uh whether they want to now um sell and lose their low rate given where rates are now today so give the backup in rates higher for longer risk of inflation from the administration I'm more in your camp that rates could go higher but we really don't forecast rates we used a forward yield curve and the forward yield curve right now went from 2026 I think was showing 5.8 now it's at 6.4 so taking into consideration just sort of the backdrop with higher for longer we're now taking down our expectations for volumes to rebound more like in the mid single digit so still growing but not um accelerating I think that what we been characterizing the market as a slow grind grinding trying to grind higher and I think it's really about um today affordability and and everyone knows that or lack of it I should say and stretched affordability you know we are seeing really the halves in the have not so a real Divergence with respect to the market where the entry level is challenged um the Builder Community has done a great job in my opinion over the last two years of utilizing mortgage rate buy Downs really started in Earnest in 22 at when rates first started moving higher I was pretty shocked that you know October of 23 when mortgage rates were 8% they were still selling homes albeit they were selling them not at 8% they're selling them mortgage rate down you know buying down five in the fives but nevertheless people were still buying and there was value that they were looking for and so I think that will be the the the likely scenario is we'll see um activity for the new construction Market benefit from what might be a stalled out um existing home sale inventory um lift and continue to um drive absorptions through incentivizing predominant mortgage rate buy Downs so I don't think the market will um decline I think we'll see for the builders more like a a low single digit for starts but like 5% for new home sales we're looking for 25 I'm talking too much but uh pricing we're looking for Builders to um probably have flat to down pricing which is is inclusive of incentives on the existing home side you mentioned that you still expect home prices to rise we do as well and basically your point was because inventories remain very tight and you also have still a very strong economy as a backdrop you know I was looking at um markets the top msas we really look at the top 50 msas and the Divergence in price is pretty spectacular you know you take a market I live in Cleveland Ohio got snow right now fun stuff versus your beautiful Newport Beach but I saw Kim I saw Kim Escape she's out here in Newport with me your assistant right and you know um but I I would just say that when you look at a Cleveland Market as an MSA home pric is year to date are up 8% because there's no inventory here and public Builders or the general production Builder Market doesn't really exist here for the most part so where there are production Builder um strong presences there's um a more of a pressure on price because as long as there is that competitive um volume available you're going to see more pricing pressure like we seeing in Texas msas and in Florida msas where there's a lot of um new construction so I mentioned a a really A Tale of of two markets you've got the the higher end still performing fairly well and I think that they're not dependent on rates there's a lot of cash buyers out there and I think that there there's a tremendous wealth effect that is benefiting you know let's say not only the move up Market but also those that are the beneficiaries of having family that are providing them whether down payments or buying home for them but then you have the you know let's say the on the income Spectrum where there's tremendous pressure on the wallet from inflationary pressures groceries Health Care utilities Insurance all of the factors that are eating into the wallet and therefore making it very difficult to save for down payment renters right now it's been really challenging for renters because rent inflation's been tremendous and we're seeing a little bit of pressure now on rent so I guess I'd say it's it's not going to be a great year for housing but there's um and there's risk to the downside more so than I think to the upside if rates remain elevated but I see I I would still characterized it as a slow grind yeah look the word slow grind I think would resonate with everybody on this call that lives in the mortgage space that's been the definition of their life for the last three years is slow grind right in the the process you know one thing uh Ivy you mentioned a little bit on the rental you know inventory that kind of stuff you know we've I've got some uh private Equity clients that I work with on a variety of projects that are heavily involved in the rental space right acquiring uh homes and then renting them out and some of them have done some of the big deals with that are announced with some of the public Builders and I know we want to stay away from Individual Builder names but what's your general perspective if you could on the impact of those private Equity groups buying homes in the market putting them out for rent right because I know it's been great for some of the builders if they have excess inventory or a particular Community or whatever there's a great opportunity for them but what's your general sense there's a lot of and I think my own sense is it varies by market but what the impact is of the Big Wall Street firms buying homes across the country and the impact to price price support and Supply well I think that I would characterize the private Equity institutional uh segment of of the sfr market and inclusive bfr as pretty small but I do think a substantial amount of mom and popop investors too that are buying and and arguably keeping the market very tight now with that said there is risk right now the administration um President elect Trump is looking at I hard to believe G given the you know uh conservative Republicans would unlikely want to take away anything that would be Pro business but there is a risk that they would take away tax benefits for investors in sfr and I think that could result in a boost to inventory because if you don't get those tax benefits many of those mom and pop portfolios and they're also dealing with higher cost of capital and all their in all their insurance costs you name it are going the wrong way anyway so we're seeing a lot of uh portfolio portfolio sales right now that are happening not just Mom and Pop but larger entities as well but it no question it it keeps prices elevated in C certain markets like you know the smile States it's much more prevalent if you go into markets like Phoenix or Atlanta you might be for the institutional investors in the double digits as a percent of those markets but then if you add Mom and Pop to that you could be looking at a third or even higher and and I was had a conversation with a single family rental operator and they are pruning their portfolio they they listed 3,000 homes on MLS and two-thirds of those were bought by investors there was definitely an opportunity for primary buyers to buy it just as the investors could but they swoop in and they buy those assets and and trying to you know take advantage of what's available on MLS which is very as you know very tight so I think it it is a problem for primary buyers on the other hand a lot of the stock is pretty dated that's coming on Market um for sale and needs a lot of refurbishment so many of the first-time buyers probably couldn't afford to go and do a lot of the Home Improvements so we do have a I think a a good um opportunity for those investors that are doing flips Fix and Flip I like that market because if you get um homes it doesn't matter if they're 10 years dated or 50 years dated someone needs to get them you know moving ready to create an opportunity for those primary buyers to step in and I think that's a good facilitator in the market to have but when they're you know acquiring and providing uh rental properties in lie of ownership I think it's there's no question it it does have an impact yeah I I'm not going to ask you to apply on this just for those that are listening that are Originators you know Ivy just mentioned Fix and Flip operators and there's a lot of them floating around in the country you know using a combination of dscr non-qm loans if you can identify Fix and Flip operators that are looking to sell the opportunity to Ivy's point of mom and pop investors coming in and buying I know we had Joe Massie on as a guest speaker who works for Castle and cook in Denver a couple of uh weeks ago and he does a class for realtors where he helps Realtors understand how to take an investor client that they have and build a 10 property portfolio for that investor client right not not a thousand not 100 but just 10 homes in Denver you want to be an investor you want to own some property and you want to take advantage of Leverage growth and in home appreciation those kind of opportunities if you're not Savvy with that kind of product it's a great opportunity I see Originators doing this all over the country and I think there's still I think people thought that when price appreciation went up that Fix and Flip went away it hasn't by any stretch of the Imagine right you know I one of the comments that I wanted to maybe share some of your views you know demographics obviously are changing across the country right and I when I talk to some home builders that I have as clients for a variety of things I just helped a couple of home builders acquire mortgage operations over the last couple of months um and when I look at those home builders and both are privately held um they're very focused on the firsttime home buyer firsttime move up segment in terms of inventory of what they're building to because they see immense demand to your point you know in the marketplace but what role do you think you know we hear a lot about the Millennials gen Z's the change in buyer what they look for you spend any time talking to builders about that type of is the buyer different is their expectations different are the is product being built differently or demand Curves in those segments how do you see that impacting particularly the new home the new Home Market well well the builders are um being forced as they always have been to go further out to for those to have to drive to qualify as we talk about that and I think they're building smaller homes in 2015 the average square foot for the builders was about 2700 square feet now it's down around 2100 so they've been um providing smaller homes to create more affordability and they're also going further out and that's allowing whether it's gen Z or Millennials to purchase and keep them in the market but I think there's more dual income um households which is you know helping to offset it if you look at the average payment median payment as a percent of gross income add homeowners insurance add property taxes to a single income not not dual you're looking at 59% on average of their income goes to buying the median existing home which is absurd and not likely possible so when you look at the number of people that's 59% of gross income right gross income right and that's that's you know on average but when you look at the number of people that are there having uh dual income and even multigenerational living I think that's a product that the builders have been offering more whether it's the in-law sweets or you know you've got the sandwich you know the Gen Z's got the Boomers and they've got the Gen Z or the Millennials living with them so there there's a more consolidation I would say I mean my daughter the oldest is 24 years old fortunately her mother can help support her but those that are you know young adults today and she's a millennial she's like Mom my friends can't afford to buy a house and they barely can afford to live on their own they're all living together a lot of Roommates coupling so I think that trend is where the the builders where they can provide that multigen product I think they're doing so um but you know as I said you know whether it's the demographics the backdrop is really not favorable for young people today my my youngest daughter said you know what you guys handed us a bag of rocks mom you know us being the xers it's our fault but you know when you look at one thing with the mortgage I wanted to highlight and I put it in the deck for everyone to look at that concerns me is that mortgage Originators have been increasing their um originations for over a 50% debt to income backend ratio and we 2020 we were at 7% of originations had backend ratios above 50 and at the end of the second quarter of 24 we were at 12% and that also the 43 to 50 has also been growing and now we're seeing delinquencies Rising faster on 30-day delinquencies and also at higher delinquent rates and I think that is a concern that you know to get people in in a home they're pushing the envelope they're stretching because FHA and and you know Jenny may allow it and I think Fanny and Freddy have also some offerings that they allow it so that's a concern about are we putting people in houses that arguably don't have the wherewithal if their car breaks down or their roof is leaking and something were to happen to them and I think that's a small segment but something that we should be watching and be more prudent about or even chatting with um I think it was w't mentioned the lender they're coming with 100% LTV product again and trying to get more people in the homes that way exactly so there there's a little bit of uh ganship that needs to be Rec contemplated I think to mitigate risk yeah look I see it you know I have clients that are non-qm lenders that are branching out going into home equity and other areas as the reason I'm involved in helping them build those strategies but you know the Advent of non-qm lending I think is driving some of that as well and look as an originator who's on pure commission I get you know the customer shows up they have a desire to buy the house they've signed a contract and you're trying to serve the need right I would just Echo Ivy's comments that you know and all of you on the call know that I'm an EXC Countrywide guy right and so and I ran the prime mortgage division of countrywide but I can just tell you when you get up every day and somebody yells the word predatory lender at you it's not a great day and just secondly I've just never really seen a foreclosure create a lot of really great referral clients back to you uh in the process as well because everybody forgets you fought hard with the consumer to get them into that loan and get them into the house all that's forgotten the day somebody shows up to take the house away right in the process and now you're the villain you were the hero in the beginning now you're the villain so just be really thoughtful and look I think there's a there's a lot of issues around this this topic in Fair lending and a variety of other things that you have to be really sensitive to as a lender and be thoughtful about it if you're a long-term player in the mortgage business your reputation is a great old saying that um you know it takes uh one bad decision to ruin a life's reputation and um be very careful on that on that point um also I think on flip side what we're seeing it's interesting if you look at the burden of of shelter on both renters and homeowners that they're spending Originators don't really want you to spend more than 30% of your income on on shelter if you're if you're a purchaser and when you look at the percentage of people today that are homeowners that are spending more than 30% on their mortgage payment it's only 23% and compare a renter how much a renter is paying more than 30% of their income it's like 60% so when we look at what today's homeowners that are no longer or in a home and they're not the prospective buyer are in great shape they have tremendous equity and I think that they could tap into that Equity whether that's you know be convinced and and Realtors like to say there's the three DS of real estate death divorce default there'll always be even in a recession transactions what you need is the D of discretionary and that happens in a good economy but if you're locked in with rates well below prevailing that makes you disincentivized but I do think they're so we're so rich with so much equity and the homeowner today is in such great shape that they will whe whether you know they want um to move to a you know their empty nesters and they want to go to a you know warmer climate or they're they want to be near their grandkids and people are going to move and those are the clients that you should be focused on because they they're rich with equity and it's not just about what rate and it's just a question of you know hopefully you have a roll aex of you've been working with for a long time and then those needs will arise but I think that's where the halves and the halves not the inequality Gap you know just want work interesting stat we did this very large affordability report that I can reference and send it to you and you can share it with everyone but great one of the things we looked at is you know how do we um you know break this inequality Gap you know what do we do to narrow this Gap and and really what part of it also is the homeowners have so much you know wealth created but then the homeowners what percent of homeowners actually invest in the stock market versus renters and how much on average 9% of renters actually are invested in the stock market compared to 50% of homeowners and when you look at the absolute numbers the homeowners are investing 75,000 on average and the renters are investing less than 10,000 so it's it's that lack of it just exacerbates the Gap dramatically the Market's been up house appreciate look if you're sitting on a 2. you know um the last mortgage I had was at 2.875 if you're sitting at a 2.875 mortgage and you're a homeowner and you've had price appreciation for the last five years you are fat with equity and your and your house balance sheet looks fabulous if you 401K in the stock market and you're investing separately you are doing really fine if you're not in that profile it feels like the economy is running away from you a little bit you know just there's a question Brian C and our our chat has a has a question that I think you can maybe speak to Ivy which is you know maybe I'm missing something but how is the economy considered good if a single income on average takes 59% of gross income for a Piti payment clearly there's a portability issue and I think it's a little bit of what you were just touching on right that you have this bifurcation of the economy people have money to spend and they're spending it maybe not more so than the Fed was hoping right at some level they're out there in the marketplace you speak to that a little bit as to I think you're right I mean challenges I I started out with saying the halves and the Have Nots and what we seeing is that the inflationary pressures well albe it have moderated they're still seeing increases so we're still seeing whether it be non-discretionary type of expenses that are eating into what would be otherwise available for discretionary it's all going to the call it the non-discretionary and those people are in a very bad position and they're hurting and you see it in delinquencies for auto loans you see it in mortgage delinquencies you're seeing it in credit card delinquencies so I think there are people out there that are not uh in the camp that it's a good economy but when you look at the job growth and you look at what's happening sort of on the higher end of the spectrum everybody's feeling pretty good so I do think that it's a little unfair to characterize the economy as as great when you have people that are probably barely making ends meet but there is no question that that's um not only um prevalent but I don't see how it goes away anytime soon I mean I don't see incomes Rising fast enough no immediate fix yeah there isn't an immediate fix so to Brian's point you know um I think it was Brian you said I think Brian C absolutely um a bifurcated Market yeah um another question that we have in that maybe you have some perspective on as well there's this emerging issue look I live in California I've been with a State Farm for I think 43 years unabated right on every piece of real estate I've ever own my cars my boats whatever right and State Farm is now sending these little love letters telling me hey we're not so sure we're going to stay in California for more than a year maybe you should have be out shopping right and which I'm doing by the way as a side note um how much do you see or do you get a sense this Rising homeowners insurance inflation in the Florida the California but I don't think it's just there you know it's kind of no it's everywhere and I think you know there's very few markets where you know insurers are not raising premiums to account for the losses that they're experiencing in those smile States or those um markets in the Southeast that are very much at risk from uh climate hurricanes Etc and I think the insurance industry is in total turmoil and I think that there are now State insurers that are picking up where the private insurers are backed out I mean State Farm as well as Farmers left Florida and State Farm I thought exited portions of California they have they've exited portions I'm still in the par because I'm not where there's a lot of fires yeah I'm sure they're worried about you know earthquakes and everything else Locust whatever but right I just think that you know it's an incremental cost to the homeowner that they um are in some cases opting to self-insure which I think is very dangerous we're seeing more self-insurers especially at the higher end people are calculating the risk and the probability that you know they'll have to fix their homes themselves it will cost me a lot less I hear that contemplated quite a bit or actually you know impl and I think that we're going to continue to see premiums rise and we actually in that affordability report we went back and looked at what percent of the income goes to homeowners insurance and it's more than doubled when you go back a decade so as a percent of your income it went from two to four or something like that but it's nothing it's still eating in to your income and just another reason why you know homeowners may be challenged to buy today those existing homeowners as you pointed out they're Equity Rich they feel good about their stock Market portfolio they're going to have to eat it or they'll self-insure but it's another headwind to the first-time buyer no question it's all I try to make this point when I do speaking in this you know I'm talking to some Builders next week in fact that want some perspective on a few things and the issue I always try to remind people is every dollar that goes to insurance or taxes is a dollar that cannot go to p&i and if you take six or seven of those dollars that's $1,000 worth of qualification in terms of a loan amount right in terms of a monthly payment and it all just and it continues down and so for every dollar in One Direction you're eating into um you're eating into qualification capability which you all already talked about but you know it's interesting when you look at the um migration that we saw during covid which doubled more than what historical migration was in most markets whether it was the Northeast to the southeast or it was the north uh and Midwest to the West Coast and Southwest wherever people went they were fleeing those more expensive markets as well as colder markets and you know those um homeowners now we're seeing people Rec contemplating do I really want to be here and you look at the Midwest is an attractive more affordable place to be not New York of course but I do think people are reconsidering living in some of those more climate prone markets that they've been dealing with floods fires heat excessive heat so if you're originating nationally do you have strong presence in the midwest because I think the Midwest could be a bit of a darling if we continue to have I'm not um trying to make it's The Rebirth of Cleveland yeah right well you know just thinking about climate change I don't know man-made or not man-made but if we have continued storms continued problems and people can move elsewhere you know my girlfriend lives in Long Long Island New York where I grew up and she visited she's like holy crap I can buy like three times what I can in in New York for what your house is and so people may start to rethink where they want to live I couldn't agree more I just saw a comment in the uh the chat that nobody ever gets sick of shoveling Sunshine that is true but to your point look if you're if you're a young family and you have the opportunity to work remote or that kind of thing where it doesn't really matter where you live and you want to be a homeowner and get to participate in home equity over the next 20 years right you know and I I listen to uh the Oracle of Omaha occasionally right one of the things he always makes the point you know when I buy Farmland I buy real estate I buy something and I think how's this going to look 10 20 years in the future where else would I put my money right in terms of the process and so U you want to get on the real estate ownership bandwagon there are cheaper markets places where insurance is not going up as fast or has been as impacted I'm in the process of opening up two insurance agencies for home builders primarily to help them um mitigate people showing up late in the transaction and not having their insurance binder or the capability to close and creating closing havoc and that kind of stuff because there are firms out there that can that can bring 15 or 20 Underwriters into the process so that they know that they're set it's not it's a money maker but it's this much of a money maker it's really a facilitator to get the house closed and that's where the build at right in the process so as you um and I don't we didn't chat about this so if you don't have a perspective it's fine but you know the the realtor commission lawsuit settlements how are you are you seeing or how are you seeing that impact for instance are the builders seeing any reduction in the realtor commissions that they're paying do you do you see it as an impact to housing at all um you know it's been a bit of a non-event so far I agree I'm just curious if I'm missing it I I think that it's about transparency and disclosure and I think all four by the way I think that's and I think that you know the buyers that are out there that now have to have representation or they to pay the buyer's commission um you know they can't afford a lot already so that's just an incremental cost to them and I think it's going to be challenging for them to buy and have to pay their buyer's agent so the seller is still really paying the buyer's agent but they have to upfront know what the story is and I think that it's just about disclosure and maybe commissions you know might be flatted slightly down but we have not seen anything material that would be concerning and I actually think some of the builders like Meritage um you know welcomes the realtor community and wants to grow their dependence on the realtor Community because they believe that they really have a competitive advantage and others are are pulling away from realtor so I think that there's um more benefit to working with Realtors and I think they're here to stay and I think the better quality realtors that have um really more success or a bigger Network are are gaining share at the expense of the you know people that entered in the Heyday and thought hey this is a great way to make a living yeah look there's no doubt for folks who have been part of this podcast over the last several months I make this point occasionally I have a I have a a Goldman Sachs backed prop Tech client that I help help them buy a mortgage company last year and I get a lot of data about just agents in general and they're primarily focused their primary business is focused on the top one and a half% of agents and realtor teams across the country right last year uh 2023 we don't have the 24 data yet but I think it's consolidating even more the top 1 and a half% of real estate agents and teams in the US accounted for 68% of sales well right and so you have this consolidation to the top and I think some agents that and we're seeing it they're seeing it some agents uh they represent today about 6,000 of the top one and a half% agents as part of their platform and some agents that are fearful about these commission changes or they're uncomfortable talking about representation or whatever the case may be are now consolidating to those teams right they want to you know you know some strengthen numbers strengthen other people that are maybe better at it than they are that can help them and maybe they're very nichy about you know listings in this particular group because it's their Community their country club whatever right and they hook to I heard an interesting story from uh independent broker that was telling me that you know when you buy leads from Zillow and you're a realtor let's say you don't have a sphere and you're just trying to grow your business and you show up and the consumer that you know uh you basically said we'll come show you the house he says you know wait a minute you're not the listing agent you know you want to represent me no way and then all of a sudden the buyers now the the agent who wanted to represent this buyer kind of bait and switch or try to that's now resulting in that person having the inability to take those leads and convert them because they have to provide that disclosure and so you're actually seeing the seller's agent or the the broker that's representing the seller they're doing better because then they're coming to them and they get more business so anyway that's correct yeah look I think those are the kind of subterranean shifts that are going to go on in terms of kind of a reapportionment of where some of those deals get done and how they get done but to your point I I thought I got interviewed right after uh this thing got announced and my view was look there there was a book written back in the 70s called Lambs for the slaughter it was about real estate selling in America and how much the buyer didn't understand that the realtor was really contractually obligated to work for the seller right because that's where the commission was coming from so the fiduciary obl obligation was always to the seller so when you said well tell them we'll pay 300 but we'll really pay 350 that the realtor was obligated to tell the S of that right right and so this lack of transparency I think in any business I think in our business right our industry I don't know if you've been tracking this or not there was a bunch of legislation that I think's now going away with the new Administration about trigger leads and one of the things about the mortgage business we have a nasty habit of finding something that works it's a good idea beginning and then we abuse the hell out of it we do it too much and today if you are on the phone taking an application with a customer and you pull their credit bureau that customer probably has 20 phone calls while you're on the phone taking their app from other lenders who got the trigger lead fired out to them and now they're on the phone trying to take the deal away right in the process so I see lenders delaying the pulling of a credit bureau so that it's not a jump ball until later in the process and there was legislation underway to kind of kill off trigger leads and it's just another example I think I think disclosure is uh sunlight and disclosure is a great anecdote for a lot of bad acts right in the business so Ivy we're we're about five minutes before the top of the hour and I've got a couple other slides in the deck and for the audience I'm going to let you guys take a look at it we've got our normal you know personal development slides in the deck Ivy's slides are in the deck she was gracious enough to share some of her work and thoughts in the slides in the deck as well with about five minutes left you have any other you know if I don't think you've ever been in the mortgage business but you've been around it an awful lot you tracking an awful lot we've talked through the years if you were sitting in the mortgage business today what advice would you give folks that are maybe on the audience about how to think about 2025 and feel free to go to 2026 but how would you think about uh the market any advice you have for anybody and or thoughts in terms of closing thoughts well assuming you know the volume is the name of the game right you need scale and the Builder Community is where the volume is coming from albeit even if it's under price or under pressure you know having to to build that um uh relationship with Builders and making sure you have a good Builder customer based I think would be a focus of mine if I was an originator um and clearly whether it somehow going after that higher-end consumer and whether it's working with relocation companies and trying to get to those Equity rich clients um that would be where I'd focus and try to penetrate um just where the the benefit of volume will come from right what do you see as the as the potential uh rocks that the boat could run into here in 25 is there things you worry about about the housing market that are like Big B you know yeah sometimes in life it's all about avoiding the big rocks right you maybe hit a small one but don't I think I think unfortunately um it's more not it's going to impact the market therefore impact Originators if we start to see the impact from the tariffs that are being uh contemplated from input cost to builders to you know all aspects Lumber being a huge thing that comes from Canada right very heavily you know that coupled with um the deportation risk which right now A lot of people are very complacent about it they don't really expect it to be any other than those that are already in jail or they're criminals that are already received deportation tap papers so I think those two things are pretty significant headwinds and could result in pretty substantial inflation if we pull out a lot of workers that today are in construction or in agriculture and food prices will go up and you know we've got so many uh I I'd call it pending headwinds to the industry that it's more concerning to the downside than the upside I don't see anything other than rates heading lower but not for good reasons if rates go tremendous go it's it's likely that we're we're hitting a recession right it or there's a war or there's something right something out there that's not good and and I think that you know we look at some of the administration's uh proposals besides tariffs and deportation I mean I don't think it's going to happen I don't think GSE reform will happen we had a call with a policy expert that they want the administration is talking about going back and trying to remove them out of they're already reformed out of conservatorship if they do that you know why fix it it's not broken and certainly it could create havoc in the market I mentioned the sfr I'm just thinking of the federal land that they want to uh propose to sell to developers I I think those those Parcels are so far out you know even the cows don't want to live there I joke right Bears there's more bears Than People yeah I just see that there's more challenges than maybe the Market's even dealing with today that can present themselves so be lean and mean and and be ready be on guard and I think today keep your average low the cost of capital is probably going to maintain at a higher level so it's tough I think it will just wean out the weaker players frankly yeah look I think that's de on I think there will be continued uh first of all I have three m&a Deals I'm in the middle of I just closed three m&a Deals in the last 75 days within the mortgage business some of them are not announced because it's private to private and um asset deals those kinds of things that are happening out there Originators have left and one of my messages to our audience has been look if you survived the last three years here's the good news you have a lot less competition at the street level right tragically because a lot of people have gone out of the business and continue to consolidate their way out of the process um and then second to that one of the things I try to um share with people in the in our business on the sales side is I get asked all the time what do you think you know what do you think the fed's going to do what do you think rates are going to do first of all I have no freaking idea let me just say that and I'm not so sure anybody else does either but I'm sure there's a lot of smart people that do have a sense of it I think I think the new proposed treasury pick was a good pick for the market right because he's a pretty balanced guy knows the markets understands the impacts of decisions those kinds of things positive we saw a little rally right after he got announced in rates um but my message to to the sales community and the mortgage business is don't keep looking at the tenure don't keep looking at mortgage rates go build the top of your funnel and focus on tactics that help you convert leads that you get you want to make more money convert more leads that you're already getting and think about broadening your marketing efforts and social media in uh your community and I have a great suggestion Builders we have some people because I see the attendees that I know in the Southeast have an immense business built being the second lender on huge builders that have an internal mortgage company and I think a lot of people think well they you know lar or somebody right they've got an internal mortgage company I can't do any business not true not right I mean they have a capture rates anywhere from you know 50 to 80% so what they're not capturing they're basically farming out for whatever reason right many cases they don't want to do that loan or they get too much exposure so I think that you should not give up on those large Builders yeah I couldn't agree more so anyway so my message is folks I wouldn't I wouldn't uh live and die off chairman Pal's comments over the next couple of months are going to be what they're going to be focus on building your business business focusing being a better more professional mortgage originator focus on your past customers think about other ways to originate volume out of your existing or current customer base and um and there will be a better day there will be a day where I think rates will begin to come down we're just not there right and so um I'm just looking any else anything else uh in the um chat session Maria Lanta in terms of questions that I may have missed or hand raisings I do see one Ivy thank you so much for doing this you're getting thank yous and applauses and stuff like that so thank you um do you see The Return of new construction condos or condo conversions on the horizon is the only other question here in the chat um condo conversions from rental product is that what you're asking just condo yeah the condo right just coming back I would say it's negligible it's not really anything that would be material there are some in markets like New York where a lot of product that you know rental there's too much product but not not enough to really move the needle and who doesn't love to lend in the state of New York right I was just on with an m&a Target yesterday that actually does a fair amount of lending in New York and uh you know their view to the buyer side was yeah it's it's significant but here's what we should do we should just drop our New York license to get the deal done right it's a roadblock uh and so that's you know and as a born and raised New Yorker um I get it yeah why as I as I am too I know I share that with you so well look Ivy I don't see any other questions first of all I just want to thank you personally for doing this with us um to have you on board um I thank everybody for joining us today um absent any additional questions I see a lot of claps and thank yous showing up in this process so I'm going to let you run I know maybe you got to get out and shovel some snow I'm sure from I don't think so what the hell are you doing Cleveland in December I would think you'd be in the Florida property in December let's just say I I'm I'm headed to Fiji with my family next week okay there you go perfect yes but Merry Christmas happy holidays to everyone and appreciate the thank to you same to your entire team thank Kim and everybody for all their putting this together we'll talk to safe flight get to Texas all right thank you iy bye bye everybody thank you