Dave Meyer, Head of Real Estate Investing at BiggerPockets, presented a comprehensive update on the June 2025 U.S. housing market, highlighting the largest shift in decades toward a buyer's market.
Nationally, sellers now outnumber buyers, resulting in homes selling below asking price and modest year-over-year price declines expected by year-end.
Regional trends, macroeconomic factors, and investment strategies for current conditions were discussed, with emphasis on risk mitigation and opportunity identification.
Key topics included supply and demand dynamics, mortgage delinquency rates, regional market differences, consumer sentiment, inflation, labor market trends, and recommended conservative investment strategies.
Action Items
No explicit action items or owners were mentioned in the transcript.
National Housing Market Overview
The market has shifted decisively to a buyer’s market, with approximately 2 million sellers versus 1.45 million buyers; buyers now have increased negotiation leverage.
Homes are generally selling for under-asking price, with buyers able to secure discounts not seen in recent years.
Modest price corrections (1–2% decline year-over-year by end of 2025) are expected nationally; this is viewed as a normal market correction, not a crash.
Inventory and days-on-market are rising but still below pre-pandemic levels, suggesting movement towards a more traditional market rather than a bubble or collapse.
Mortgage delinquencies are up slightly (currently at 0.86%) but remain far below crisis levels (2007–2008 saw rates above 7%), indicating low risk of a foreclosure-driven crash.
Regional Market Differences
Some major metros are experiencing above-average appreciation: Detroit (+9%), New York City (+6%), Pittsburgh (+6%), Virginia Beach (+5%), and Chicago (+5.2%).
The largest declines are in Oakland (-8%), Dallas (-5%), Jacksonville (-4%), Tampa (-2.4%), and San Diego (-2.1%), mostly in markets that previously saw rapid price gains.
New listings are increasing in some Midwest and affordable markets (Houston, Columbus, Boston, Indianapolis, Cincinnati), while listings are dropping in several Texas and Florida markets.
In declining markets, fewer new listings suggest sellers are choosing to wait rather than accept lower prices, acting as a stabilizing factor and preventing larger price drops.
Macroeconomic Trends Impacting Housing
Inflation has ticked up slightly to 2.4% (as of May), but no severe increases observed; potential impact from tariffs might show in late summer.
Labor market remains strong, though both initial and continuing unemployment claims have increased modestly; no emergency level signs yet.
Consumer sentiment has dropped significantly, near lows from 2022, despite stable inflation and strong employment—likely due to accumulated effects of inflation and overall economic uncertainty.
The U.S. Economic Policy Uncertainty Index is at unusually high levels (~470), which is contributing to hesitancy in both consumer and business decision-making.
Mortgage rates remain stable, hovering between 6.75% and 7.15%, due to a balance of recession and inflation concerns among bond investors; rates are not expected to change significantly unless macro uncertainty declines or the Fed cuts rates.
Investment Strategy Recommendations
Buyers and investors are advised to negotiate aggressively and be patient, with the typical sale price now $30,000 below list nationally.
Emphasize strict acquisition discipline: purchase below current comps to protect against modest market declines.
Focus investment on cash flow, tax benefits, and value-add opportunities rather than relying on near-term appreciation.
Conservative underwriting is recommended; assume little to no market-driven appreciation for 2025 and possibly 2026.
The current market rewards informed, diligent investors with better deals, but risk mitigation remains essential.
Long-term fundamentals (cash flow, property improvement, tax advantages) should guide investments rather than speculative appreciation.
Decisions
Adopt conservative investment strategies — Due to expected flat or declining prices and high economic uncertainty, focus on cash flow, value-add, and tax benefits.
Open Questions / Follow-Ups
Will inflation rise further in late summer as tariff impacts manifest?
Will labor market weakening become more pronounced and impact housing demand?
When (and if) will macroeconomic uncertainty decline enough to meaningfully affect mortgage rates?
How will regional market dynamics evolve, particularly if sellers in declining markets continue to opt out of listing?